Large Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

[Frank2]

The GFS model is predicting development of a new tropical wave, due to move off the coast of Africa 4-5 days from now.

Gee - a tropical wave moving off Africa in late July? Totally unusual!

LOL

[littlevince]

GFS and ECM 00z run's

GFS 168 hours (31 July)


ECM 168 hours (31 July)


What you think ?

[Gustywind]

http://www.weathercarib.com/
Of more interest is the newest area of moisture just off the African coast, further south than 97L was when it exited. A vigorous tropical wave with some good rain would be welcome to those in VI already paying for water deliveries to their dry cisterns.
http://www.weathercarib.com/080724-mychart.jpg

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest model runs are not as enthusiastic about this system as they were yesterday. However, given its current appearance, we should continue to watch it closely as it pushes westward.

[Vortex]

The wave/low now just off the coast of Africa is one to WATCH. While the globals have fluctuated in terms of intensity from run to run what remains consistent is that this area SE of the Cape Verde islands stands a very good chance to impact the islands and points further west. The medium range globals and the forecasted synoptics all point to a slowly evolving system BUT most important they unanimously agree any recurvature may not take place until it's to late.

[bob rulz]

Surprised it hasn't been mentioned in the TWO yet.

[Frank2]

Surprised it hasn't been mentioned in the TWO yet.

At this point it's only mentioned in the TWD - the other night, Max Mayfield (former NHC Director, who now works for the Miami ABC affiliate) chuckled when he was speaking about the NHC TWO going outside of the normal, after the NHC forecaster mentioned a system that was still over Africa, since the TWO is usually reserved for tropical systems that are over the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico...

As it turned out, Max was correct - the system did not develop as was prematurely (and incorrectly) mentioned in the TWO (it never should have been mentioned at all, since it was still hundreds of miles inland), which just goes to show that even meteorologists can let their emotions get in the way of common sense...

Frank

[Sanibel]

Maybe this one will overcome the one ahead of it.

[bob rulz]

Surprised it hasn't been mentioned in the TWO yet.

At this point it's only mentioned in the TWD - the other night, Max Mayfield (former NHC Director, who now works for the Miami ABC affiliate) chuckled when he was speaking about the NHC TWO going outside of the normal, after the NHC forecaster mentioned a system that was still over Africa, since the TWO is usually reserved for tropical systems that are over the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico...

As it turned out, Max was correct - the system did not develop as was prematurely (and incorrectly) mentioned in the TWO (it never should have been mentioned at all, since it was still hundreds of miles inland), which just goes to show that even meteorologists can let their emotions get in the way of common sense...

Frank

I thought this one was off the coast already.

And I don't necessarily think it's a bad thing to mention powerful tropical waves that are still over Africa. Tiny lows with much less of a chance than 97L had are frequently mentioned in the TWO. If it would've dropped in latitude and developed right as it emerged you'd probably feel differently about it.

[gatorcane]

Surprised it hasn't been mentioned in the TWO yet.

At this point it's only mentioned in the TWD - the other night, Max Mayfield (former NHC Director, who now works for the Miami ABC affiliate) chuckled when he was speaking about the NHC TWO going outside of the normal, after the NHC forecaster mentioned a system that was still over Africa, since the TWO is usually reserved for tropical systems that are over the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico...

As it turned out, Max was correct - the system did not develop as was prematurely (and incorrectly) mentioned in the TWO (it never should have been mentioned at all, since it was still hundreds of miles inland), which just goes to show that even meteorologists can let their emotions get in the way of common sense...

Frank

I thought this one was off the coast already.

And I don't necessarily think it's a bad thing to mention powerful tropical waves that are still over Africa. Tiny lows with much less of a chance than 97L had are frequently mentioned in the TWO. If it would've dropped in latitude and developed right as it emerged you'd probably feel differently about it.

I agree with Frank2 here. I'm not sure why the NHC was so gunhoe about development of 97L when it was still well inland in Senegal. I doubt you will see such an agressive forecast from them for a system inland Africa the rest of the season.

I checked the models and they are not developing ex-97L or the new wave SE of it. I'm going to go with the models and say development is unlikely with the higher chance being ex-97L once it passes 40W. Even so looks like it is a recurve candidate.

[Jason_B]

Surprised it hasn't been mentioned in the TWO yet.

At this point it's only mentioned in the TWD - the other night, Max Mayfield (former NHC Director, who now works for the Miami ABC affiliate) chuckled when he was speaking about the NHC TWO going outside of the normal, after the NHC forecaster mentioned a system that was still over Africa, since the TWO is usually reserved for tropical systems that are over the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico...

As it turned out, Max was correct - the system did not develop as was prematurely (and incorrectly) mentioned in the TWO (it never should have been mentioned at all, since it was still hundreds of miles inland), which just goes to show that even meteorologists can let their emotions get in the way of common sense...

Frank

You know, it's pretty easy to just sit back and criticize them on every little thing they don't quite get right. Ever think that they may have seen something about that wave that we didn't which triggered such a aggressive call? They have a very tough job down there and yeah not every forecast is perfect but more often than not they're dead on and we saw that with Dolly. They know a lot more than you or I do so who are we to criticize them.

[dixiebreeze]

Maybe this one will overcome the one ahead of it.

This a.m. it looks like it has much more potential.

[gatorcane]

Because SSTs are so warm off Africa, convection has continued to maintain and even blossom over the past 6 hours. I the the NHC is going to mention it in a TWO either later today or tomorrow assuming the convection holds which I think it will.

This could be 98L in the making although models are still against development so I'm not getting too gunhoe yet

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

Sandy, very nice images of the new wave off Africa. You can see some very deep convection firing that we'll want to watch over the next couple of days. The white areas indicate very cold cloud tops. Thank you for sharing them

[Meso]

[Frank2]

Jason B,

I used to work at the NHC (in the '80s, before most here were born - LOL), so, I'm just taking liberties not to critize, but, to say that perhaps, as Gatorcane said, they were a bit too over-eager to mention something that was still over the desert...

That's what prompted my old boss, Dr. Frank, to say what he said recently - perhaps the "new generation" of NHC forecasters are being too over-eager to identify every swirl out there - some, like Dolly, do develop (eventually), but, most don't, so, to preserve the integrity of the forecast staff, it's best to be conservative since most waves that do flare up just as quickly dissipate...

Better to use the "persistency" rule (as former NHC forecaster Dr. Lyons often mentions on TWC) when trying to determine whether a wave will "take off"...

Frank

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow!! that wave looks very impressive! If that wave doesn't develop, the only reason would be due to the time of the year. I wouldn't always trust what the models are saying though. There have been countless times where the models have been gung ho about development from various waves coming off of Africa and nothing ends up happening.

[Vortex]

Models continue to suggest development from this wave that recently exited the coast...

[Weatherfreak14]

I think this wave has great potiential to become the next player in the tropics... Persistence of convection is key... If convection continues to increase we may see 98L by tommorrow morning.... If it decreases in convection over the night we may not see it become a invest until later on.