Disturbance fizzeled in Eastern Atlantic

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitE&time=



Doesn't look good for anything to form.

Yeah for sure...but looking further east a huge wave is on Africa, let's see if conditions could be more conducive for a possible window of opportunity :roll.

[Gustywind]

[Sanibel]

Those waves have great spin but the prevailing atmospheric is drying them right up. Even before they get over water. I wouldn't be surprised if the spin was at the wrong level.

[cycloneye]

I was going to let die the thread,but I saw 2 models wanting to do something with it so I will give the thread the last hurrah for the system that is going to emerge late Saturday or on Sunday morning.If this system turns into a invest,or nothing occurs with it,this thread will go down the pages either way.

This image updates every half an hour.Click the symbol to see a closeup.

[Gustywind]

Is the train is rolling right now? Looking extremely further east on the sat pic, another HUGE wave can be seen SAL has begun to relax, maybe higher chances to see something more decent?

[Gustywind]

Sat Pic from Africa and the activity...


Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 1, 2009 4:51 am ET

The Atlantic tropical basin is expected to continue to remain quiet through this weekend.

[cycloneye]

Dont be distracted by the convection that is in the coastline,as the wave axis is still well inland.57,this is your last chance to get the first named system on or before August 8.

[jinftl]

May need another week following August 8th for things to start potentially getting more interesting...

Excerpt from Dr. Jeff Master's blog yesterday:

However, wind shear has been slowly falling over the southern portion of the Caribbean and southern MDR (Main Development Region) over the past week, and is forecast by the GFS model to fall to near-average levels by mid-August. This should present a more favorable environment for hurricanes to form in by mid-month.

Dont be distracted by the convection that is in the coastline,as the wave axis is still well inland.57,this is your last chance to get the first named system on or before August 8.

[Gustywind]

Interresting latest paragraph...

Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 1, 2009 8:55 am ET

In the Atlantic Basin, there are three tropical waves from the western Caribbean to the far eastern Atlantic.

No development is expected with the Caribbean wave, however an interaction with strong westerly winds aloft is producing showers and thunderstorms near Central America

The two Atlantic waves are of no concern at this time and contain very little, if any, shower activity.

A low pressure area will move off western Africa by tomorrow and will be monitored as it moves into a dry, stable environment.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

[cycloneye]

As I said earlier,the wave axis with a low pressure is still well inland.It looks like a mid-level circulation.

[cycloneye]

Here is a diagram of where is the low pressure in the wave axis that is still well inland.

[cycloneye]

Some convection forming near the low pressure not yet over water.The real test for this system in terms of its future will be as soon it hits the water.See image that updates every half an hour at the first post of thread.

[Gustywind]

Shear is continuing to decrease in the Atlantic, maybe more conducive conditions...Will it be sufficient to see something to (try) form? It's the 10000$ question . As Cycloneye brightly mentionned it in the previous post : " The real test for this system in terms of its future will be as soon it hits the water", and, he's somewhat in my opinion pretty right . Let's wait and see .
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[jinftl]

Completely fizzling and losing all identity as soon as it hit water would definitely make development look unlikely, but not sure if you mean that if it doesn't immediately develop, say into a td, near or even over the CV islands, than it has no chance? A disorganized system...but a system nonetheless...could encounter more favorable conditions in the open atlantic. Generally, immediately development off of africa is the calling card of a 'fish'.

Shear is continuing to decrease in the Atlantic, maybe more conducive conditions...Will it be sufficient to see something to (try) form? It's the 10000$ question . As Cycloneye brightly mentionned it in the previous post : " The real test for this system in terms of its future will be as soon it hits the water", and, he's somewhat in my opinion pretty right . Let's wait and see .
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[HURAKAN]

Worth watching. (Nothing else in town!!)

[cycloneye]

Sandy aka HURAKAN said it (The only game in town).Looking better with each frame.

[HURAKAN]

Latest. Looking good for now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bed time approaches, don't want to be yawning at Mass...


GFS has started, and has a nice disturbance, closed at 850 mb, in 3 days.



ETA:

No idea if I believe it, but it is a 25 knot TD then...

[Sanibel]

Reconvected over water. Hmm.

[Scorpion]

Is this the same wave with model support?