CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA (01C)
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- Crostorm
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Re: CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA (01C)
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
177.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 176.9E, APPROXIMATELY 660 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS BROAD, AND CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR 13N 177E. A 140750Z SSMI-S 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
CURVED INFLOW WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TOWARD THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AXIS. WHILE THE SYSTEM
HAS SOME EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS DUE TO A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THOUGH (TUTT) LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND CONTINUING LOW
VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
177.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 176.9E, APPROXIMATELY 660 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS BROAD, AND CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR 13N 177E. A 140750Z SSMI-S 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
CURVED INFLOW WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TOWARD THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AXIS. WHILE THE SYSTEM
HAS SOME EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS DUE TO A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THOUGH (TUTT) LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009
MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND CONTINUING LOW
VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
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Re: CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA (01C)
the TCFA is no longer on the JTWC's page http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php, does that mean that they are upgrading it?
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Re: CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA (01C)
Phoenix's Song wrote:the TCFA is no longer on the JTWC's page http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php, does that mean that they are upgrading it?
wait!, the JTWC upgraded it again!, http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/cp0109web.txt!
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Re: CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA (01C)
Phoenix's Song wrote:Phoenix's Song wrote:the TCFA is no longer on the JTWC's page http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php, does that mean that they are upgrading it?
wait!, the JTWC upgraded it again!, http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/cp0109web.txt!
the JTWC changed the URl for the warnings, it is now http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0109web.txt
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Re: CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA (01C)
RL3AO wrote:JTWC forecasting a typhoon
WTPN33 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C (MAKA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 13.5N 174.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 174.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.8N 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.6N 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.9N 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.6N 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.8N 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.2N 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 22.5N 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 174.3E.
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01C (MAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
CONSOLIDATED WITH DEEPENING CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST IS
ALSO PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE TD. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES
AND FROM A 141751Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TD 01C IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG ITS TRACK ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 01C IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND INITIALLY TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE EAST. BY TAU 72, A SECONDARY STR TO THE NORTH WILL NUDGE THE
SYSTEM ON A FASTER WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE MINIMAL NUMERIC GUIDANCE
AVAILABLE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 141151Z AUG 09 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN23 PGTW 141200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z,
151500Z AND 152100Z.//
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Re: CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA (01C)
Obviously, I haven't been paying that close attention, because I missed the continuity break in the SAB's position estimates:
11/1200 UTC 14.1N 171.9W T2.0/2.0 01C
11/1800 UTC 13.5N 174.0W T2.0/2.0 01C
12/0000 UTC 14.2N 174.4W T1.5/2.0 01C
12/0600 UTC 15.1N 173.1W T1.5/2.0 01C
12/1200 UTC 14.9N 174.3W T1.5/1.5 01C
12/1800 UTC 15.2N 174.9W T1.0/1.5 01C
13/0000 UTC 14.5N 178.4W T1.0/1.5 01C
13/0600 UTC 14.6N 179.5W T1.0/1.0 MAKA
13/1430 UTC 13.8N 179.7E T2.0/2.0 MAKA
13/2030 UTC 13.7N 178.2E T2.0/2.0 MAKA
11/1200 UTC 14.1N 171.9W T2.0/2.0 01C
11/1800 UTC 13.5N 174.0W T2.0/2.0 01C
12/0000 UTC 14.2N 174.4W T1.5/2.0 01C
12/0600 UTC 15.1N 173.1W T1.5/2.0 01C
12/1200 UTC 14.9N 174.3W T1.5/1.5 01C
12/1800 UTC 15.2N 174.9W T1.0/1.5 01C
13/0000 UTC 14.5N 178.4W T1.0/1.5 01C
13/0600 UTC 14.6N 179.5W T1.0/1.0 MAKA
13/1430 UTC 13.8N 179.7E T2.0/2.0 MAKA
13/2030 UTC 13.7N 178.2E T2.0/2.0 MAKA
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- theavocado
- Professional-Met
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:this should NOT be Maka
Since JTWC tracks systems for other than official WMO uses, they keep the RSMC given name for continuity when they track a circulation from one basin to another. It's unusual across the date line, but oftem time you'll see a system track from RSMC Perth into RSMC La Reunion. In those cases, JTWC appends the second name to the system with a dash. In this case Japan still holds it as a TD and hasn't given a new name to the system. If/when they do, it will be Maka-Krovanh on the JT products.
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