SIO : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DAVID (05S)

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WTXS32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 69.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 69.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.6S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.9S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.5S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.9S 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.6S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.3S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DAVID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 231320Z 37H GHZ CORIOLIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS LESS ORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION WAS BASED ON ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY IN THE CENTER OF THE DENSE OVERCAST AREA. INTENSITY
IS BASE ON CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS, WHICH
APPEARS TO BE CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN. TC 05S WILL BEGIN
TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SLOW AS THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TURN SOUTHWEST-
WARD DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTH. DUE TO THE HIGH SHEAR AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, TC 05S
SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING BY TAU 72 AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 16 FEET. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS SPREAD ON WHEN EXACTY THE SYSTEM WILL TURN, HOWEVER THIS
FORECAST REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF MODEL CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z AND 242100Z.//
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Latest visible

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ZCZC 635
WTIO30 FMEE 241222
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/7/20092010
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DAVID)
2.A POSITION 2009/12/24 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 70.9E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/25 00 UTC: 15.1S/71.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2009/12/25 12 UTC: 15.4S/70.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/12/26 00 UTC: 16.0S/70.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2009/12/26 12 UTC: 16.7S/68.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2009/12/27 00 UTC: 17.2S/67.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2009/12/27 12 UTC: 18.0S/65.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5
THE SYSTEM SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN LEADING TO DT 3.5.
DAVID SHOULD REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, AND MAINTAIN ITS INTENSIFICATION. IT COULD THEN
REACH
THE MINIMAL STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE.
AVAILABLE NWP ARE NOT IN GOOD AGRREMENT WITH THEIR TRACKS.
THE LOW PREVIOUSLY MENTIONNED AND LOCATED NEAR 16S/81E DOES NOT SEEM
TO
INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM TRACK, WHICH HAS KEPT ON SLOWLY TRACKING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS.
DAVID REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORWARD RIDGE
FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT IT SHOULD BE SLOWN DOWN BY A BUILDING RIDGE IN
THE
EAST, WHICH SHOULD BE THE STEERING FLOW BEYOND 24 HOURS, TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST.
BEYOND 60H, DAVID SHOULD BE UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE
SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD.=
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WTXS32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DAVID) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 14.5S 70.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 70.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.8S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.3S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.7S 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.3S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.5S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.0S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 70.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (DAVID), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DAVID HAS INTENSIFIED TO 55 KNOTS
DESPITE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THIS INTENSITY IS BASED
ON 3.5 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH PGTW AND FMEE. THE TC IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER A WEAKENED STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND SLOW UNTIL MID-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS RIDGE WILL
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND BEGIN TO TRACK THE TC
WESTWARD. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS NOT UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT
THE STRONGEST VWS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE UNTIL THE TROUGH PASSES. BY TAU 72, HOWEVER, VWS WILL
ELEVATE AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 96.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A TURN TO THE WEST
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO
WEAKENING. THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE EAST OF, AND SLOWER THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE GRADUAL SLOW DOWN (AND TURN)
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.//
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ZCZC 431
WTIO30 FMEE 250046
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/7/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DAVID)
2.A POSITION 2009/12/25 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2S / 70.4E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST
)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 35 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: 150 SO: 200 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/12/25 12 UTC: 14.1S/70.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2009/12/26 00 UTC: 14.0S/70.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2009/12/26 12 UTC: 14.1S/69.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2009/12/27 00 UTC: 14.3S/69.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/12/27 12 UTC: 14.9S/68.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2009/12/28 00 UTC: 15.7S/67.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5+, CI=3.0
DAVID SHOWS NOW A SHEAR PATTERN (AQUA 20H42Z), THE SYSTEM HAS
CLEARLY
TURN BACK NORTHWESTWARDS.
LAST ASCAT DATA SHOWS A CLEAR WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM OF
SMALL SIZE.
THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD GO ON AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, UNDER THE
OPPOSITE EFFECT OF THE WEAKENING STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
EQUATORWARD
RIDGE, AND THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND.=
NNNN

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Still producing some unorganized convection

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Final crazy track

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.9S 62.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281331Z 37V GHZ SSMIS IMAGE
SHOW BURSTS OF POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK
AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.