BAY OF BENGAL - CYCLONIC STORM LAILA (01B)

[Rezwanur]

if you are in Bangladesh and this turns toward you, do not rely solely upon the IMD. I CANNOT stress this enough. Their intensity estimates traditionally are about 30KT too low. They had Nargis as a 90KT cyclone when it was really at least 115KT (and its sat signature was not too dissimilar from Wilma at its peak

I would rely more upon the JTWC forecasts as they have a much better handle on this basin

Thank you Derek for the advice. I should keep this on my mind

[HURAKAN]

Getting closer to landfall

[HURAKAN]

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM ‘LAILA’ ADVISORY NO. NINE ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 19TH MAY 2010 BASED ON 0000 UTC CHARTS OF 19TH MAY.

THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘LAILA’ OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 19TH MAY 2010 OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 13.50N AND LONG. 82.00E, ABOUT 190 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, 480 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM AND 1200 KM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 45 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 990HPA.

SATELLITE IMAGeRY INDICATES BANDING PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LAT. 9.00 N TO 16.00 N. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -900C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 10-15 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 170N. SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. SHEAR TENDENCY OVER PAST 24 HOURS IS NEGATIVE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS GUIDANCE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN ONGOLE AND VISAKHAPATNAM BY EARLY HOURS OF 20TH MAY 2010.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

Code: Select all

DATE/TIME(UTC)
   

POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
   

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)

19-05-2010/0000
   

13.5/82.0
   

85-95 GUSTING TO 105

19-05-2010/0600
   

14.0/81.5
   

95-105 GUSTING TO 115

19-05-2010/1200
   

14.5/81.5
   

105-115 GUSTING TO 125

19-05-2010/1800
   

15.5/81.5
   

115-125 GUSTING TO 135

20-05-2010/0000
   

16.5/81.5
   

115-125 GUSTING TO 135

20-05-2010/1200
   

17.5/82.0
   

95-155 GUSTING TO 155

21-05-2010/0000
   

18.5/83.0
   

85-95GUSTING TO 105

21-05-2010/1200
   

19.5/84.5
   

75-85 GUSTING TO 95

[HURAKAN]

Radar

[HURAKAN]

Losing in organization

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI



TROPICAL STORM ‘LAILA’ ADVISORY NO. ELEVEN ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 19TH MAY 2010 BASED ON 0600 UTC CHARTS OF 19TH MAY.



THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘LAILA’ OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS DURING PAST 6 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 19TH MAY 2010 OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 13.50N AND LONG. 81.50E, ABOUT 150 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, 300 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MACHILIPATNAM AND 500 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM.

sustained maximum SURFACE wind speed is estimated to be about 55 KNOTS. the state of the sea is VERY HIGH around the system centre. the estimated CENTRAL pressure is about 986 hpa.

SATELLITE IMAGeRY INDICATES BANDING PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.5 ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LAT. 10.00 N TO 18.00 N. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -900C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 10-15 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 170N. SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE.. SHEAR TENDENCY OVER PAST 24 HOURS IS NEGATIVE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS GUIDANCE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN NELLORE AND KAKINADA, CLOSE TO MACHILIPATNAM BY MORNING OF 20TH MAY 2010.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:



DATE/TIME(UTC)


POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)


SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)

19-05-2010/0600


13.5/81.5


105-115 gusting to 125

19-05-2010/1200


14.0/81.0


105-115 gusting to 125

19-05-2010/1800


14.5/81.0


115-125 gusting to 140

20-05-2010/0000


15.5/81.0


115-125 gusting to 140

20-05-2010/0600


16.0/81.0


115-125 gusting to 135

20-05-2010/1800


17.5/82.0


95-155 gusting to 155

21-05-2010/0600


18.5/83.5


85-95gusting to 105

21-05-2010/1800


19.5/85.0


75-85 gusting to 95

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (LAILA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 13.7N 81.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 81.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.4N 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.1N 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.8N 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.4N 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.4N 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.7N 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.5N 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 81.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 01B HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE MORE POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A 190208Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE
AND FROM A RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGE FROM CHENNAI. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
45 KNOTS (DEMS AND KNES) TO 65 KNOTS (PGTW). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK WITH WBAR AND
GFS TO THE LEFT AND TCLAPS TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. TC LAILA IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36 AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL
BE BELOW 35-KNOT INTENSITY BEFORE IT DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN BAY OF
BENGAL AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Looking very good at the moment, thankfully its closeness to land may just help to somewhat limit its top strength but we shall see...

[ugaap]

Experts please give feedback on current Lat. & Long. of LAILA. Satelite fix at 19/1430Z was 14.3N 81.2E.

[HURAKAN]

Moving very slowly lately

[HURAKAN]

Model consensus

[KWT]

System doesn't look at healthy in that image there Hurakan, I'd guess land interaction really can't be helping it out at all...

[HURAKAN]

Probably losing intensity due to land interaction

[KWT]

Yep though it has to be said that is a big convective flare-up, which probably isn't a good thing for rainfall amounts...

[HURAKAN]

Microwave shows a less organized system

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI



[1] TROPICAL STORM ‘LAILA’ ADVISORY NO. FIFTEEN ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 19TH MAY 2010 BASED ON 1800 UTC CHARTS OF 19TH MAY.

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘LAILA’ OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF 19TH MAY 2010 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 14.50N AND LONG. 81.00E, ABOUT 100 KM EAST OF NELLORE (43245), 150 KM SOUTHEAST OF ONGOLE (43221) AND 200 KM SOUTH OF MACHILIPATNAM (43185).

sustained maximum SURFACE wind speed is estimated to be about 55 KNOTS. the state of the sea is VERY HIGH around the system centre. the estimated CENTRAL pressure is about 986 hpa.

SATELLITE IMAGeRY INDICATES BANDING PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER BAY BET LAT 11.5N TO 17.0N WEST OF LONG 83.00E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -900C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 10-15 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 17.00N. SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. SHEAR TENDENCY OVER PAST 24 HOURS IS NEGATIVE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS GUIDANCE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN KAVALI AND KAKINADA, CLOSE TO MACHILIPATNAM BY AFTERNOON OF 20TH MAY 2010.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

DATE/TIME(UTC)


POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)


SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)

19-05-2010/1800


14.5/81.0


105-115 gusting to 125

20-05-2010/0000


15.0/81.0


105-115 gusting to 125

20-05-2010/0600


15.5/81.0


105-115 gusting to 125

20-05-2010/1200


16.0/81.0


95-105 gusting to 115

20-05-2010/1800


16.5/81.5


95-105 gusting to 115

21-05-2010/0000


17.5/82.0


95-105gusting to 115

21-05-2010/1200


18.5/83.5


75-85 gusting to 95

22-05-2010/0000


19.5/85.0


75-85 gusting to 95

22-05-2010/1200


20.5/86.5


55-65 gusting to 75

[ugaap]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY FROM RSMC COMES TOO LATE.

[HURAKAN]

Very intense rainfall. My prayers to those being impacted.

[ugaap]

More than 50% of -80 Clouds is over land and the center could be 30 to 40 miles from land. Any change in track direction?