Disturbed area north of Panama - (Is invest 99L)

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Vortex
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#61 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 15, 2010 2:56 pm

H240 landfall South Florida...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif
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#62 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 15, 2010 2:58 pm

12Z Nogaps at H180 similar to GFS with a Hurricane south of central Cuba



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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#63 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 15, 2010 2:59 pm

CMC strengthening Richard over SW carribean



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr
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Re: Disturbed area north of Panama

#64 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Oct 15, 2010 3:00 pm

HPC:

CHI STANDARDIZED ANOMALY CHARTS OF H200 AND H850 VELOCITY
POTENTIALS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAVORABLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
CONDITION IS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH NEWER OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
CMC/UKMET/NOGAPS AND GFS/GSF ENS MEAN SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THIS REGION LATE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND. HPC DEPICTION
KEPT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AT THIS TIME. THSI REGION WILL NEED
TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS/OUTLOOKS.

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Re: Disturbed area north of Panama

#65 Postby sunnyday » Fri Oct 15, 2010 3:56 pm

If only I had a nickel for every time one of these fizzled-out storms was "headed for S Fl," I would be rich! Richard will probably be a non-issue, as well. I hope so.....

This is only my feeling, not a forecast of any kind. 8-)
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Re: Disturbed area north of Panama

#66 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 15, 2010 3:58 pm

Image

HPC days 3-7
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#67 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 15, 2010 4:10 pm

:uarrow: and here we go again folks....
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Re: Disturbed area north of Panama

#68 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 15, 2010 4:31 pm

Caribbean formation probability rising:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Image

Image
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#69 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 15, 2010 5:26 pm

I think there is a high chance we get another named system out of this...
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#70 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 15, 2010 5:32 pm

18Z GFS We should be in business by late sunday....


H48

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif
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#71 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 15, 2010 5:33 pm

H96

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
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#72 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 15, 2010 5:34 pm

H126

Starting to crank east of N Nicaragua....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif
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Re:

#73 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 15, 2010 5:35 pm

Vortex wrote:18Z GFS We should be in business by late sunday....
H48
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif


Most likely no development until Tuesday. GFS is almost always a few days too fast. And then there's no guarantee it'll be classified immediately (think Paula).
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#74 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 15, 2010 5:36 pm

H138 probablly nearing hurricane strength...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif
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#75 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 15, 2010 5:37 pm

H156 Just east of Nicaragua


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif
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Re: Disturbed area north of Panama

#76 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 15, 2010 5:39 pm

Looks like the 18Z GFS builds the high pressure north of the storm late next week, shoving it westward into the Yucatan. Here's the 192 hr:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif
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#77 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 15, 2010 5:41 pm

H192 still over northern honduras......



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif
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#78 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 15, 2010 5:46 pm

very possible wxman...we've seen that type scenario play out many historically and the 18z would be awful for CA regarding flooding....
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#79 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 15, 2010 5:49 pm

H276..in some ways reminds me of mithc this run


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276l.gif
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Re: Disturbed area north of Panama

#80 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 15, 2010 5:51 pm

Dissipating in the NW Gulf in 12-14 days. Seems reasonable ... NOT! I don't trust the 18Z or 06Z runs at all.
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