Tropical Wave just off African Coast (Is Invest 94L)

[cycloneye]

18z GFS run has this wave in the Bahamas. Last frame.

['CaneFreak]

Looks like it has good company as now the 18Z GFS is indicating the same thing. I guess it's finally that time of year again.

Wouldn't it be East Atlantic, now

CMC shows interesting scenario for this wave

http://imageshack.us/a/img15/2724/kth8.jpg

But then again, it's the CMC

[cycloneye]

8 PM discussion.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 12N17W TO
4N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 7N17W. A 1022 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED THE LOW CENTER
WITH 25 KT WINDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 13W-25W.

[ouragans]

Now that it's mentionned in the TWD, it should be yellow by 2AM or 8AM. No invest until 20 pct

[CrazyC83]

Now that it's mentionned in the TWD, it should be yellow by 2AM or 8AM. No invest until 20 pct

I've seen Invests declared at 10% or less before, but usually 20% is the minimum. IMO, anything lower than 20% shouldn't be mentioned if not a threat to land...

[cycloneye]

Now that it's mentionned in the TWD, it should be yellow by 2AM or 8AM. No invest until 20 pct

I've seen Invests declared at 10% or less before, but usually 20% is the minimum. IMO, anything lower than 20% shouldn't be mentioned if not a threat to land...

Don't forget the Cape Verde islands that got TS warnings as Erin passed close.

[ROCK]

this one has promise...though the way CV season has been who knows...if it develops early out to sea, farther west it might slip under any weakness...JMO....

[boca]

It would be nice to track something rather than a storm thats injested by the saharan dust or just dry air and they turn back into a wave

[Hurricaneman]

It would be nice to track something rather than a storm thats injested by the saharan dust or just dry air and they turn back into a wave

The 0zGFS says dry air will win again

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Florida1118]

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

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