WPAC: NARI - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 85kts.

24W NARI 131010 1800 15.5N 125.6E WPAC 85 959

[hurricanes1234]

Extremely deep convection around the center now. What temperature might those cloud tops be? -85°C?

[Extratropical94]

Extremely deep convection around the center now. What temperature might those cloud tops be? -85°C?

I don't know how accurate those readings are, but recent ADT estimates show average cloud top temperatures of -82 to -84 degrees. If that's the average, then some spots might be colder than -85.

[cycloneye]

21:00z Track

[dexterlabio]

Now officially a typhoon.

TY 1325 (NARI)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 10 October 2013

<Analyses at 10/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E125°25'(125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E121°50'(121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 12/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E117°40'(117.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 13/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E113°10'(113.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)





Intense deep convection over the CDO right now, can somebody pinpoint where the center really is? This could be like 2009's 'Santi' or Mirinae, a moderate typhoon but without a clear, visible eye...

[dexterlabio]

21:00z Track

So JTWC relocated the center further south. I guess we were both tricked by the expanding CDO last night. I also thought it was moving northwards.

[oaba09]

That convection is massive and scary!
It actually reminds me of ketsana
Even the projected path is kinda similar

[Filipinas50]

Typhoon Nari's Outer Rainbands Approaching the East Coast of Luzon this Morning as Seen from the Tagaytay Radar ...

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 100kts.

24W NARI 131011 0000 15.7N 124.3E WPAC 100 948

[oaba09]

Latest from JMA(70 kts)



TY 1325 (NARI)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 11 October 2013


<Analyses at 11/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E124°30'(124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 12/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°55'(15.9°)
E120°35'(120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E116°05'(116.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 14/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E112°30'(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

[hurricanes1234]

Major typhoon!

[hurricanes1234]

This has to be the most active tropical cyclone day in 2013 so far. One upper-end Category 4 cyclone just 2 mph from C5 status, one 115 mph typhoon in the WPAC, and one strengthening TS with 40 knot winds in the WPAC too. Also the first day with two simultaneous tropical cyclones having winds of 111+ mph. Amazing October 10th 2013.

[oaba09]

Another discrepancy in the center location between JTWC and JMA

As of 0000z
JMA 15.3 AND 124.5
JTWC 15.7 AND 124.3

[cycloneye]

[stormkite]

2013OCT11 023000 5.0 967.7 90.0 5.0 5.0 4.3 MW HOLD OFF OFF -77.10 -78.24

(Looks at least 100 + knots on the image)




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[oaba09]

I honestly don't know why PAGASA has that WNW turn...Both JMA and JTWC is saying that this is a straight runner

[oaba09]

Here's the latest image from pagasa's Doppler radar

[dexterlabio]

I don't know why PAGASA shifted the forecast track to the north.

[oaba09]

I don't know why PAGASA shifted the forecast track to the north.

Frankly, I'm baffled....I'm just trying not to say too much because I know the forum has a rule against criticizing agencies.....

[euro6208]

amazing...a major typhoon 100 knots headed for landfall...may god bless everyone in the philippines and india...