ATL: NESTOR - Models

[AJC3]

Quick reminder - Posts that are not model output or directly related to model output belong in the general discussion thread. Half a dozen posts were just moved over there. As things get busier here over the next 24 hours, additional OT posts are more likely to be deleted instead of moved. Thanks for doing your part to help the mods/admins out.

[NDG]

06z HR Euro shifted to the east with landfall, despite being already too far north on its forecasted position for 12z this morning.

[NDG]

Latest HRRR shows a fairly stormy late afternoon and evening across central FL as the frontal boundary starts lifting northward.

[northjaxpro]

12Z GFS has landfall of CoC between 09Z and 15Z tomorrow morning.at Apalachicola @ 992 mb. A significant shift eastward from the 06Z run.

[NDG]

Big shift to the east by the Euro.

[Aric Dunn]

12 euro at 12 hours.. before it does the crazy jump ..

well east first 12 hours then jumps north.

that is 70mph..

[NDG]

Indeed the Euro shows Nestor strengthening this evening into a Hurricane before weakening as it gets closer to the coast.

[TallyTracker]

Indeed the Euro shows Nestor strengthening this evening into a Hurricane before weakening as it gets closer to the coast.

https://i.imgur.com/u9W7S5E.png
https://i.imgur.com/tz4okJT.png
https://i.imgur.com/7ZMRvxi.png

If Nestor manages to become a hurricane, I imagine it will have to be primarily fueled by baroclinic energy. The lack of a good lower level structure will make that much intensification difficult.

[gatorcane]

The Euro is a great model but it was a wee bit off here. This was its forecast for Nestor as of the 12Z last Monday plot, 120 hour plot below.

[lando]

cmc sniffed this out almost 10 days ago, spinning a Cory off the boc from the epac. Euro jumped on with less organization the next run. Gfs had nothing

[Bigwhitey]

Looks like the cmc wins the award for sniffing out Mestor and GFS for track and strength