Low Pressure Trough Over the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 99L)

[SFLcane]

Appears to be 1004mb at the 84-90 hr frames.

Very compact

So about a minimal TS

[BobHarlem]

Quite a shift between 12z and 18z euro (frame alternates between 12 and 18z)

[zzzh]

Monsoon trough systems are hard to predict. I'd wait until a TD actually forms.

[LarryWx]

Appears to be 1004mb at the 84-90 hr frames.

Very compact

So about a minimal TS

TD most likely imo

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS continues to develop this quickly. I'm skeptical it develops that fast, but I do think it has a decent chance of development at some point.

Could be an invest soon

[IcyTundra]

00Z GFS

[zzzh]

20/40.

[weeniepatrol]

20/40.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the central
tropical Atlantic are associated with an elongated trough of low
pressure centered about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the next several days while moving toward the west or
west-northwest at about 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[LarryWx]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 20.5N 67.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2023 156 21.0N 67.9W 1006 35
0000UTC 23.08.2023 168 21.7N 69.9W 1006 37

[BobHarlem]

6z GFS at 240 hours is signficantly SW of the 0z run on this system (shows a cat 2 here) 0z it was east of Bermuda around the same time.

Image below is from 264 hours out though, at 240 it was around 21.3M 62.0W

[SFLcane]

6z GFS at 240 hours is signficantly SW of the 0z run on this system (shows a cat 2 here) 0z it was east of Bermuda around the same time.

Image below is from 264 hours out though, at 240 it was around 21.3M 62.0W

https://i.imgur.com/ZRVVfsJ.png

Gfs fantasy tc breaks the ridge but still west of previous runs surely

[gatorcane]

Best to stick to the ensembles here given the complex setup (two systems close together) and wide range of solutions. The EPS and GEFS show weak development and nearly all recurve well east of the islands into the Central Atlantic. Thr GFS 200+ hour is low skill, would not even look at it for this system or anything else as it is WAY too inconsistent.

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

TWD:

The axis of a tropical wave is in the central Atlantic near
37W/38W, from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N
between 32W and 41W. A perturbation has developed in association
to the tropical wave within the monsoon trough. The tropical wave
will continue moving westward while this perturbation remains in
its wake. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this perturbation, and a tropical depression could
form during the next several days while moving toward the west or
west- northwest across the central tropical Atlantic.

[abajan]

Excerpt from 8 AM Tropical Weather Update:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the central
tropical Atlantic are associated with an elongated trough of low
pressure centered about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the next several days while moving toward the west or
west-northwest at about 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Blown Away]

Excerpt from 8 AM Tropical Weather Update:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the central
tropical Atlantic are associated with an elongated trough of low
pressure centered about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the next several days while moving toward the west or
west-northwest at about 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Interesting the movement is W but the cone is NW. Models struggling with competing lows.

[Blown Away]

06z Euro

00z Euro

Euro struggling with dominate low, 06z has the Central Atlantic low separating on it's own again.

[jconsor]

I'd be wary of putting much weight on the 6z/18z ECMWF and EPS. They have tended to be much more active than the 0z/12z runs with this system.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/fyYXwK3v/06Z-EURO.jpg [/url]
06z Euro
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3J70X24P/00Z-EURO.jpg [/url]
00z Euro

Euro struggling with dominate low, 06z has the Central Atlantic low separating on it's own again.

[AutoPenalti]

I'd be wary of putting much weight on the 6z/18z ECMWF and EPS. They have tended to be much more active than the 0z/12z runs with this system.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/fyYXwK3v/06Z-EURO.jpg [/url]
06z Euro
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3J70X24P/00Z-EURO.jpg [/url]
00z Euro

Euro struggling with dominate low, 06z has the Central Atlantic low separating on it's own again.

Exhibit A:

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1691797916107645401

[jlauderdal]

I'd be wary of putting much weight on the 6z/18z ECMWF and EPS. They have tended to be much more active than the 0z/12z runs with this system.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/fyYXwK3v/06Z-EURO.jpg [/url]
06z Euro
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3J70X24P/00Z-EURO.jpg [/url]
00z Euro

Euro struggling with dominate low, 06z has the Central Atlantic low separating on it's own again.

Exhibit A:

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1691797916107645401

Craig is a sofla former tv met on cbs miami, he knows his stuff. The consistency of the modeling has been weak at best.