ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[skyline385]

I have seen less organized TDs than this, but I got a feeling as it tracks over the gulf stream in the morning it will tightened up nicely before coming inland. Too bad I have meetings in the morning, I would drive up to NE FL for some little fun with these weak systems.

This is vastly more organized then Alberto was for the first 4 advisories as a pts1 and it isn't even close. This is defined.

Alberto had complete model and ensemble support, this has no support on the other hand. Recon found a weak circulation in the midst of a relocation which was not well defined and hence they decided to leave it as an invest. It still has a chance at being a TS but it is much less than Alberto and even if it did, it would be a very small & compact TS with limited impacts unlike Alberto which caused coastal flooding along the entire Texas coast and parts of Louisiana, followed by inland flooding from rains in Mexico with 3 fatalities and counting. Alberto's PTC was well deserved simply because of the impacts it would go on to cause.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
Satellite imagery shows that shower activity associated with the
area of low pressure located about 175 miles north-northeast of the
northern Bahamas has become a little better organized during the
past 24 hours. However, earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data indicated that the system does not have a well-defined
circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive
for additional development and this system could become a tropical
depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida
or the Georgia coast early on Friday, and interests there should
monitor the progress of the system. Another Air Force Reserve
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday morning,
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[skyline385]

92L decided to explode right at DMIN

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2024062100, , BEST, 0, 290N, 768W, 30, 1014, DB

[LarryWx]

92L decided to explode right at DMIN

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/cHP1bDDf/goes16-ir-meso1-2.gif [/url]

Besides being just after DMIN, it is headed toward significantly warmer SSTs in the Gulf Stream. SSTs where it is now (near 29N, 77W) are only ~81 F, but they rise to a peak of ~84 F in the Gulf Stream.

[Category5Kaiju]

Deep layer shear map shows that 92L is currently under 5-10 knots, which is considered as "favorable"

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Kind of reminds me of Danny in 2021, similar genesis and time of year. I'd say the odds of TC genesis are much higher; closer to 70%.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z GFS progged IR satellite view for 9PM EDT isn’t anywhere close to the actual 9PM IR image!

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1803969156598906948

[Sciencerocks]

Damn it looks good! probably 35 knts and could get up to 45-50 knts by landfall.

[LarryWx]

Damn it looks good! probably 35 knts and could get up to 45-50 knts by landfall.
https://i.imgur.com/jcgomZv.gif

Is the LLC already at or even slightly N of 30N like your loop at least suggests is quite possible?

[psyclone]

Looks like a baby TS headed for Brunswick to Savannah.

[Sciencerocks]

Damn it looks good! probably 35 knts and could get up to 45-50 knts by landfall.
https://i.imgur.com/jcgomZv.gif

Is the LLC already at or even slightly N of 30N like your loop at least suggests is quite possible?

Closer to 29.5 north or near the small blow up. Probably some southerly shear blowing the main convection of the LLC.

[skyline385]

Seems to be trying to develop banding to the south, plus some outflow expansion to the north. Also some very persistent towers in it, wont be surprised if its stronger than expected tomorrow morning.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Starting to look very TDish to me, lets see what recon finds.

[LarryWx]

No recon til 8AM EDT?

[Beef Stew]

This looks like a textbook example of a developing tropical cyclone, that is if it’s not already there. 50% odds is quite low, in my opinion. I’ve certainly seen worse looking systems get tagged as TDs before.

[skyline385]

No recon til 8AM EDT?

They had recon for 2AM fix but it was pushed to 8AM in interest of flight safety since they didnt find a well defined circulation earlier. Things have changed since then but unfortunately it was already pushed by then.

 https://x.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1803987207318855976




 https://x.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1803993109887345082

[JaxGator]

Seems to be trying to develop banding to the south, plus some outflow expansion to the north. Also some very persistent towers in it, wont be surprised if it’s stronger than expected tomorrow morning.


[url]https://i.postimg.cc/tTWTrrS8/goes16-ir-92-L-202406210132.gif [/url]

Definitely getting more organized on IR but it would be nice to have recon there too to confirm more. 92L is also starting to come into radar range. Wonder how similar to 2012’s Beryl if the storm is named besides beneficial rains and dangerous rip currents.

[LarryWx]

This appears to be the closest buoy to 92L with it at 28.9N, 78.5W or 120 nm E of Cape Canaveral. So, perhaps WSW of 92L’s center: does this tell us anything?

Station 41010
NDBC
Location: 28.878N 78.467W
Date: Fri, 21 Jun 2024 04:30:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 3.9 kt gusting to 5.8 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.07 in
Air Temperature: 79.2 F
Dew Point: 75.6 F
Water Temperature: 80.6 F