Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brent]

Joe Bastardi apparently tweeted about similarities to February 2021 very long way out though. He's talking more January

[Stratton23]

Brent Yeah saw that he brought up similarities to february 2021, that would be hard to get an outbreak of that magnitude again, that was an incredible set up to dislodge that siberian air that ended all all the way down to mexico

[gpsnowman]

Watching that snow fly in Buffalo is making me drool. Just once this winter please.

[Ntxw]

Watching that snow fly in Buffalo is making me drool. Just once this winter please.

Just makes you want to get larger lakes around here...1" in January from Lewisville and Texoma not good enough!

No way we go all of December with high tendency of -EPO and nothing.

[Brent]

I know I've been pretty negative this year but I do see a lot better signs than last year already. Colorado ski season is way ahead of schedule

I just want one storm that isn't eaten up by the fact that it's either 5 degrees and drying up or by warm Pacific air...

[Cpv17]

Is it just me or does there seem to be a crap load more snow happening this year across the country? Sure seems like it’s a lot more.

[Brent]

Is it just me or does there seem to be a crap load more snow happening this year across the country? Sure seems like it’s a lot more.

.
I mean I do remember a big snowstorm in November last year in Kansas but like other things definitely seem ahead of schedule

[Stratton23]

Man thats a severe -EPO tank on the overnight GFS run… SE ridge in place with strong - AO blocking, mid month is gonna be very interesting

[Ntxw]

0z Euro has the CMC look. Big trough in the SW, perfect set up for an overrunning event.

[Stratton23]

12z CMC has a winter storm

[Iceresistance]

12z CMC has a winter storm

More like an Ice Storm


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SGJUO.png

[Ntxw]

GFS is much more progressive and blows it up further northeast. Still though the signal is there for some type of overrunning. Lots of time for model changes.

[Iceresistance]

GFS is much more progressive and blows it up further northeast. Still though the signal is there for some type of overrunning. Lots of time for model changes.

So it's safe to say that the GFS has the progressive bias?

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance oh yeah it definitely does, even outside of winter weather, its biacy for being too progressive with upper level patterns definitely shows sometimes lol

[Iceresistance]

MJO still progressing, we just got into Phase 5


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SGJaR.png

[Golfisnteasy7575]

MJO still progressing, we just got into Phase 5

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SGJaR.png
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SGJaR.png

I've always wondered which model actually handles the mjo the best. In December, 5-6 are warm here

[Stratton23]

12z EPS has a decent signal for snowfall for north, central and western texas in the 10-12 day range lol

[Ntxw]

12z EPS has a decent signal for snowfall for north, central and western texas in the 10-12 day range lol

Most of the guidance signal Canada will be very cold with the TPV anchored over the hemisphere. Would love to see the Alaskan ridge pop after this happens.

[Brent]

Still not an impressive signal for the day 10 storm here but I bet it's more of a setup for a storm down the road

[Ntxw]

Still not an impressive signal for the day 10 storm here but I bet it's more of a setup for a storm down the road

Anytime in winter where you have strong vorticity digging into the southwest is a start. As we get closer, either it has to find cold (not seen by the models until closer) or it's strong enough to bring down some underneath (the huge wet flakes type of marginal event.) We're running near to slightly below normal so -10F anomaly can do it especially areas to the north like I-40.