Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Ivanhater]

Euro aif has upper Texas coast

Where do you see that. It's getting caught and turned NE well before ever reaching the coast

Newest 06z has landfall around Texas/Louisiana border

Ah, I can only see the 00z. Thanks!

[Blown Away]

Euro aif has upper Texas coast

Where do you see that. It's getting caught and turned NE well before ever reaching the coast

Newest 06z has landfall around Texas/Louisiana border

06z... This model has been flopping all over the place since yesterday...

[LAF92]

Euro aif has upper Texas coast

Where do you see that. It's getting caught and turned NE well before ever reaching the coast

Please provide the EURO AI image. Earlier I saw it hitting SELA. Thanks!

[Ivanhater]

There definitely has been a west trend today. I think the GFS was developing an eastern vort too quickly but in reality this may be a CAG event over the Yucatan and take longer. Who knows what the 12z suite will show

[MHC Tracking]

Where do you see that. It's getting caught and turned NE well before ever reaching the coast

Newest 06z has landfall around Texas/Louisiana border

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/65fn62zb/06z-EURO-AI.jpg [/url]
06z... This model has been flopping all over the place since yesterday...

Impressively large hurricane coming in there. Would be a major surge generator

[Lightning48]

postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 18, 2024 8:04 am

Stormlover70 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
It appears that we will need to initiate advisories Sunday afternoon. Development in NW Caribbean on Tuesday. Most likely track between central LA and Ft. Myers, FL. Big Bend of FL figures prominently again. Tampa keeps dodging bullets. It's as vulnerable to storm surge as SE LA and MS, with a shoaling factor surge multiplier of about 1.8. I'd say that development chances by next Wednesday are in the 90%+ range. NHC will be steadily increasing development chances to above 60% by Friday.

Main question is whether it will be Helene of Isaac. The remnants of Gordon mess will be absorbed by the frontal low to its north. Some of Gordon's energy will be there, but that low has been looking more impressive than Gordon for 2-3 days. That could become Helene. Gordon won't redevelop. If it's Isaac, watch out! Those "I" storms can be bad, and they hate the Gulf Coast.
I am in pasco count nw of Tampa should I be concerned? Thanks bud.


Your area is definitely at higher risk for landfall. I would be checking to make sure I have all I need in the event of an extended power outage. I think I have about a dozen battery-powered lanterns now and a case of D-cell batteries. Our O2-Cool battery powered fan was a life saver when we were without power after Beryl. Plan for the worst and hope it goes somewhere else.


Wouldn't Tampa have to worry about a storm that landfalls in Pasco as that would be a nightmare coastal and flooding issue?

[jfk08c]

All models looking pretty spot on for late September/early October climo. I would wager somewhere on the west coast of Florida is the most likely scenario. Once we get a disturbance for models to latch onto, hopefully we will start getting some stronger agreement.

[Steve]

I don't see it jkf. Maybe Big Bend? There will be a strong trough cutting across the US but whether that picks this up or not - assuming it develops - remains to be seen. If so, I'd bet you that the Panhandle-Big Bend would be more likely. I realize the Big Bend is kind of technically the W Coast of FL, but I think of that as at least south of Cedar Key.

ICON rolling in and at 174 hours. Looks south of LA Coast and interacting with a EPAC system and also low pressure centered in Illinois. I guess this would get picked up. There are only 6 more hours to the run, so it won't show a landfall. But it looks like it would be somewhere from the mouth of the River over to NWFL.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=174

[ScottNAtlanta]

Video for Accuweather


Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=4wqkaukaDwk

[jfk08c]

I don't see it jkf. Maybe Big Bend? There will be a strong trough cutting across the US but whether that picks this up or not - assuming it develops - remains to be seen. If so, I'd bet you that the Panhandle-Big Bend would be more likely. I realize the Big Bend is kind of technically the W Coast of FL, but I think of that as at least south of Cedar Key.

ICON rolling in and at 174 hours. Looks south of LA Coast and interacting with a EPAC system and also low pressure centered in Illinois. I guess this would get picked up. There are only 6 more hours to the run, so it won't show a landfall. But it looks like it would be somewhere from the mouth of the River over to NWFL.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=174

This one's really tough to predict especially with nothing formed yet. Way too many variables at play with trough timing, location of disturbance formation. I agree models have been trending west lately but I've seen them flip back the other way all too often. Hopefully by this weekend we will actually have a disturbance that is trackable to take out some of the guessing

[GalvestonDuck]

Main question is whether it will be Helene of Isaac. The remnants of Gordon mess will be absorbed by the frontal low to its north. Some of Gordon's energy will be there, but that low has been looking more impressive than Gordon for 2-3 days. That could become Helene. Gordon won't redevelop. If it's Isaac, watch out! Those "I" storms can be bad, and they hate the Gulf Coast.

I refuse to be hit by a storm that shares the name with 1900’s Galveston meteorologist Dr. Isaac Cline.

[StPeteMike]

Idalia definitely gave the St. Pete area some bad storm surge flooding and she was only a Cat 3 and over 100 miles away from the Pinellas Coast.

The fear is climatology on this one. Climatology shows that storms this time of year strongly favor more of the east portion of the GOM than the west, though a strong ridge can change that. I just don’t see that strong ridge in the next week or so. If this potential system organizes about 200 hundred miles (closer to Belize City than Cancun), that plenty of time for it to ramp up.

This is all hypothetical until something does start going, of course. But I am with wxman here, think we will see them bump up the chances to 50-60% by Friday.

[robbielyn]

I do not know whats been making big bend or west coast of fl the target since 2016 with Hermine. Before that it was either sfl or western panhandle. We are oversaturated with rain so we don't even need a depression here. I don't wish for anyone to get hit of course, however, I wish it had a brain to say lets leave the peninsula out this time. After Debby we have had tons of rain since so I really think any tropical storm that comes close to us will cause severe flooding issues. Our river banks are still high.

[TomballEd]

Where do you see that. It's getting caught and turned NE well before ever reaching the coast

Newest 06z has landfall around Texas/Louisiana border

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/65fn62zb/06z-EURO-AI.jpg [/url]
06z... This model has been flopping all over the place since yesterday...

That solution becomes less climatologically favored past the Equinox for the NW Gulf. Not impossible, 1949 and 1989 had Texas October hurricanes, but not likely, either. GEFS mean heights would make that unlikely to happen.

[sunny]

Newest 06z has landfall around Texas/Louisiana border

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/65fn62zb/06z-EURO-AI.jpg [/url]
06z... This model has been flopping all over the place since yesterday...

That solution becomes less climatologically favored past the Equinox. Not impossible, 1949 and 1989 had October hurricanes, but not likely, either.

Hurricane Juan in 1985 and Hurricane Zeta 2020. Zeta was a 3. Both around Halloween.

[StPeteMike]

Interesting 12z models. Seems like we have two camps, one that gets this organized by Monday and another that takes an extra day for it to get itself together. Icon 12z has gone a little east again too and also gets the system stalled out for a while with the trough coming in.

[TomballEd]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/65fn62zb/06z-EURO-AI.jpg [/url]
06z... This model has been flopping all over the place since yesterday...

That solution becomes less climatologically favored past the Equinox. Not impossible, 1949 and 1989 had October hurricanes, but not likely, either.

Hurricane Juan in 1985 and Hurricane Zeta 2020. Zeta was a 3. Both around Halloween.

Juan sank an oil rig and killed a couple of rig hands. But I'm talking extreme NW Gulf, far W. Louisiana down through Texas.

[Kazmit]

With the GFS, the trough keeps sucking it north before it can really get going. Seems that conditions will be quite favorable if it has the time to take advantage of them though.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian looks rough for Pensacola

[Kazmit]

12z GFS has a ridge blocking the system just as it makes landfall, moving it slowly east across northern Florida. Re-emerges in the Atlantic.