2025 TCR's

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Re: 2025 TCR's

#61 Postby ljmac75 » Fri Jan 30, 2026 9:50 pm

wwizard wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
ljmac75 wrote:Did they post Chantal then?


Just checked and....I admit that I was wrong. Chantal has yet to be posted, actually (I thought that was done a while ago, lol). After Chantal should be Melissa.


They didn’t come out with Milton until the end of March last year so I wouldn’t expect Melissa any time soon.

And kinda surprised Chantal has not come out yet.

The latest in the year a TCR (for a storm from the previous year of course) has been released is the report for Hurricane Eta, which didn't release until June 9th, 2021. Laura and Iota also didn't release until late May that year. Obviously the 2020 season is a special case, I am not suggesting that Melissa or Chantal will take that long.
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Re: 2025 TCR's

#62 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 04, 2026 9:52 am

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Re: 2025 TCR's

#63 Postby StormWeather » Wed Feb 04, 2026 3:16 pm

The Eastern Pacific has wrapped up its TCRs with the release of Hurricane Priscilla’s report, and Priscilla is now a major hurricane with a new peak of 100 kts.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP162 ... scilla.pdf
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Re: 2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; MSW ties Allen (1980)

#64 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Feb 25, 2026 11:12 am

BREAKING NEWS: MELISSA REACHED 190 MPH AND 892 MB

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132025_Melissa.pdf
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Re: 2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; MSW ties Allen (1980)

#65 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Feb 25, 2026 11:38 am

Well Allen, your record was all good....for like, 45 years lol.
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Re: 2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; MSW ties Allen (1980)

#66 Postby WaveBreaking » Wed Feb 25, 2026 11:58 am

There’s a chance Melissa could have been even stronger

 https://x.com/NickKrasz_Wx/status/2026691588848505049




Melissa’s peak intensity of 165 kt (190 mph) and 892 mb at 1200 UTC October 28 was based mainly on Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data, supported by satellite estimates. The strongest winds likely occurred in a portion of the eyewall that reconnaissance aircraft were unable to fully sample, meaning the true peak may have been even more extreme.
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Re: 2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; MSW ties Allen (1980)

#67 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Feb 25, 2026 12:00 pm

I would have assumed a lower pressure - about 890 mb - at 12Z, based on satellite and Recon trends. Additionally, I'd have gone with 170 kt for the peak intensity given the challenges from the aircraft and the satellite trends.
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Re: 2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; MSW ties Allen (1980)

#68 Postby zzzh » Wed Feb 25, 2026 12:14 pm

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Re: 2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; ties Allen (1980)

#69 Postby aspen » Wed Feb 25, 2026 12:33 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I would have assumed a lower pressure - about 890 mb - at 12Z, based on satellite and Recon trends. Additionally, I'd have gone with 170 kt for the peak intensity given the challenges from the aircraft and the satellite trends.

I find it odd they kept it at 892 mb even with a bump to 165 kt. The inverse of keeping Erin and Humberto at 140 kt despite lowering both of their pressures.

897/160 at landfall seems about right. It was definitely filling in a little bit in those final hours, and 897 mb is compatible with Josh’s measurements. So Labor Day remains the strongest NATL landfall by pressure.
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Re: 2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; MSW ties Allen (1980)

#70 Postby MarioProtVI » Wed Feb 25, 2026 12:47 pm

Figured they would upgrade Melissa to 165 kt. Would’ve gone a little lower pressure wise, particularly 890 mb instead. Still insane that I tracked that beast of a system. Even more insane NHC admits their analysis may be conservative.
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Re: 2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; MSW ties Allen (1980)

#71 Postby AJC3 » Wed Feb 25, 2026 12:48 pm

I may have posted this some time ago, but with the release of the report for Melissa, it's a good time to remind peeps of the conventional terms used to qualitatively describe [differentiate] maximum sustained winds (MSW) and [from] minimum central pressure (MCP).

Maximum sustained winds (MSW): "Strength"
Mminimum central pressure (MCP): "Intensity"

This isn't being done to "correct" anyone, since this practice isn't universally adhered to, even by people in the field! (look at the lede in the report - "reached category 5 intensity (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale)" However, it's good way to separate the two parameters when talking about them on a regular basis. I find that it's easier for me to type out "strongest" and/or "most intense", rather than having to add "in terms of wind/pressure" every time I address one or the other. YOMV.

Carry on...
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Re: 2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; MSW ties Allen (1980)

#72 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Feb 25, 2026 10:34 pm

WaveBreaking wrote:There’s a chance Melissa could have been even stronger

 https://x.com/NickKrasz_Wx/status/2026691588848505049




Melissa’s peak intensity of 165 kt (190 mph) and 892 mb at 1200 UTC October 28 was based mainly on Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data, supported by satellite estimates. The strongest winds likely occurred in a portion of the eyewall that reconnaissance aircraft were unable to fully sample, meaning the true peak may have been even more extreme.


I think Melissa was stronger. I would go as high as 200 to 215 mph.
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Re: 2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; MSW ties Allen (1980)

#73 Postby jconsor » Thu Feb 26, 2026 7:04 am

Thanks for your comments. What you have gone for landfall?
CrazyC83 wrote:I would have assumed a lower pressure - about 890 mb - at 12Z, based on satellite and Recon trends. Additionally, I'd have gone with 170 kt for the peak intensity given the challenges from the aircraft and the satellite trends.
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Re: 2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; MSW ties Allen (1980)

#74 Postby sasha_B » Thu Feb 26, 2026 10:09 am

Not much to add besides that I concur with CrazyC83, aspen, and others here that Melissa probably got down to 890 hPa. Not entirely sold on 170 kt - I think going with 165 while acknowledging the best track uncertainty margin is a totally reasonable call from the NHC.

What a spectacular storm, though. It's almost unbelievable that we've now seen 2 back-to-back years with 155 kt, sub-900 Atlantic hurricanes...but rapid intensification events do seem to be getting more frequent, even if the jury's still out on whether we're seeing a overall upward trend in seasonal activity year-to-year. I think this highlights how important (and impressive) it is that modeling technology continues to improve - one of the most striking things about this report is just how accurate NHC's track forecast was. Melissa's devastating impacts could have been all the worse if it weren't for skillful forecasting like that.
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Re: 2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; MSW ties Allen (1980)

#75 Postby ncforecaster89 » Thu Feb 26, 2026 11:13 am

The additional 913.5 mb pressure reading obtained inside the eye at New Hope (just twenty five minutes prior to landfall) confirms my aforementioned 155 kt/906 mb landfall intensity estimate. The 897 mb landfall pressure doesn’t physically correlate with the actual in-situ data obtained by Josh (in Crawford) and at New Hope.

Here’s a more detailed explanation:

https://x.com/tbrite89/status/2027034051647824379
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Re: 2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; MSW ties Allen (1980)

#76 Postby ljmac75 » Thu Feb 26, 2026 6:27 pm

The cover image on the TCR incorrectly dates the satellite image to October 2026. I mean what are we to believe that this is some sort of a magic satellite or something? What a blunder. More seriously it's a good report, I liked reading it. Nice to have another official 190 mph storm and sub-900 mb landfall in this basin for trivia night. This is one of those storms nobody is ever gonna stop talking about.
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Re: 2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; MSW ties Allen (1980)

#77 Postby ncforecaster89 » Thu Feb 26, 2026 7:38 pm

ljmac75 wrote:The cover image on the TCR incorrectly dates the satellite image to October 2026. I mean what are we to believe that this is some sort of a magic satellite or something? What a blunder. More seriously it's a good report, I liked reading it. Nice to have another official 190 mph storm and sub-900 mb landfall in this basin for trivia night. This is one of those storms nobody is ever gonna stop talking about.


They got the peak intensity correct. But, they’re way off on the landfall intensity estimate (e.g., it was not sub 900 mb).
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Re: 2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; ties Allen (1980)

#78 Postby TomballEd » Fri Feb 27, 2026 6:18 am

aspen wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I would have assumed a lower pressure - about 890 mb - at 12Z, based on satellite and Recon trends. Additionally, I'd have gone with 170 kt for the peak intensity given the challenges from the aircraft and the satellite trends.

I find it odd they kept it at 892 mb even with a bump to 165 kt. The inverse of keeping Erin and Humberto at 140 kt despite lowering both of their pressures.

897/160 at landfall seems about right. It was definitely filling in a little bit in those final hours, and 897 mb is compatible with Josh’s measurements. So Labor Day remains the strongest NATL landfall by pressure.


Indeed. i-Cyclone may be an adrenaline junky but his pursuit to get his Kestrels as close as possible to the center of hurricanes and typhoons at landfall leads to useable data for NHC.

From TCR:
The estimated minimum pressure of 897 mb at landfall in Jamaica is based on aircraft
reconnaissance data collected before landfall, observations from the New Hope Primary School
site, and data recorded by Josh Morgerman (iCyclone) in Crawford, Jamaica. The New Hope
Primary School reported an instantaneous pressure of 913.5 mb at 1700 UTC about 25 minutes
before landfall about 2 n mi from the landfall location. Data from the sensor in Crawford (iCyclone),
located approximately 5 n mi east of the estimated landfall location, recorded a minimum pressure
of 926 mb just inside the southeastern edge of the eye at 1720 UTC (Fig. 12). Both Air Force
Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicated an approximate 35-40 mb pressure
difference between the center and the radius of maximum winds (RMW) in the eyewall over a
distance of roughly 5-8 n mi during the final mission before landfall. Using a blend of these data
and the fact that Melissa is estimated to have weakened slightly before landfall, the estimated
minimum pressure at landfall in Jamaica is 897 mb.
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Re: 2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; ties Allen (1980)

#79 Postby ncforecaster89 » Fri Feb 27, 2026 12:46 pm

TomballEd wrote:
aspen wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I would have assumed a lower pressure - about 890 mb - at 12Z, based on satellite and Recon trends. Additionally, I'd have gone with 170 kt for the peak intensity given the challenges from the aircraft and the satellite trends.

I find it odd they kept it at 892 mb even with a bump to 165 kt. The inverse of keeping Erin and Humberto at 140 kt despite lowering both of their pressures.

897/160 at landfall seems about right. It was definitely filling in a little bit in those final hours, and 897 mb is compatible with Josh’s measurements. So Labor Day remains the strongest NATL landfall by pressure.


Indeed. i-Cyclone may be an adrenaline junky but his pursuit to get his Kestrels as close as possible to the center of hurricanes and typhoons at landfall leads to useable data for NHC.

From TCR:
The estimated minimum pressure of 897 mb at landfall in Jamaica is based on aircraft
reconnaissance data collected before landfall, observations from the New Hope Primary School
site, and data recorded by Josh Morgerman (iCyclone) in Crawford, Jamaica. The New Hope
Primary School reported an instantaneous pressure of 913.5 mb at 1700 UTC about 25 minutes
before landfall about 2 n mi from the landfall location. Data from the sensor in Crawford (iCyclone),
located approximately 5 n mi east of the estimated landfall location, recorded a minimum pressure
of 926 mb just inside the southeastern edge of the eye at 1720 UTC (Fig. 12). Both Air Force
Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicated an approximate 35-40 mb pressure
difference between the center and the radius of maximum winds (RMW) in the eyewall over a
distance of roughly 5-8 n mi during the final mission before landfall. Using a blend of these data
and the fact that Melissa is estimated to have weakened slightly before landfall, the estimated
minimum pressure at landfall in Jamaica is 897 mb.


I wholeheartedly agree that Josh captured very important and highly valuable data and the same applies to the pressure reading obtained in New Hope.

These data make it abundantly clear that the NHC’s 897 mb landfall pressure estimate is not only too low but actually a physical implausibility based on radial profiles inside the eye. Even my 906 mb estimate is giving Melissa every conceivable benefit of the doubt.

Ironically, the NHC's own report is one of the best evidences against its 897 mb landfall pressure estimate.

By including the surface obs and recon details that demand a higher central pressure (906–910 mb), it undermines its own conclusion in the same document.
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Re: 2025 TCR's: Melissa is up / 190mph, 892mb at peak; MSW ties Allen (1980)

#80 Postby ljmac75 » Fri Feb 27, 2026 3:19 pm

I've been putting together a little map thing of all the Automatic Weather Stations listed in the TCR and doing some things with it. I have been color-coding the stations by whether they are 10 meter wind stations (blue) or 2 meter (red).

https://imgur.com/a/dn6Xg0K

One of the stations in Westmoreland Parish (Sav RADA) does not have coordinates listed in the TCR. After looking into it a little bit, RADA stands for Rural Agricultural Development Authority, and their Westmoreland office is in Savanna la Mar (approximate coordinates 18.23N, 78.14W). Images show a small weather station on the premises, so this is very likely the station in question. From what I can tell, this is the closest station to the core near landfall with an intact anemometer. The height of the anemometer is 2 meters, and the winds listed in the report are 1-hour averaged winds (56 kt) and maximum 3-second gusts (93 kt). Using the WMO guidelines for a 3600 to 60 second wind averaging conversion for inland areas gives a 1-minute wind of ~72 kt. Applying the wind profile power law from 2-meters to 10-meters gives a 10 meter sustained wind of ~90 kt with a gust to 117 kt. However, this is a very naive estimate. The hour-to-minute averaging conversion is listed for "roughly open terrain" and the station is off a road near several buildings. This would also affect the conversion from 2 meters to 10 meters, and without knowing the exact direction of the wind this is even more challenging.

I tried calculating some pressure gradients but that's also pretty tricky. Except for iCyclone, there's only hourly pressures and only the lowest ones. I will note that the 17z pressure from iCyclone at Crawford is about 18 mbar higher than the 17z pressure at New Hope and the 18z pressure at Crawford is about 20 mbar higher than the 18z pressure at Lewisville school, but using the distance between Crawford and those sites may undersell the gradient due to differing distances between each site and between the center of the hurricane.
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