ATL: BARRY - Remnants - Discussion

[MGC]

Ham and cheese sandwich. Two pitiful storms to start the season. Hope it stays this way......MGC

[Sciencerocks]

[chaser1]

The latest recon data does seem to suggest that Barry has strengthened at least a little, despite its unimpressive appearance.

The question is are those flight level winds translating to the surface. With the poor convective structure, I’d say it’s a lower translation rate than normal.

In gusts at best. Wait, I take that back. I doubt there's any TS force gusts at the surface either.

[Ubuntwo]

The latest recon data does seem to suggest that Barry has strengthened at least a little, despite its unimpressive appearance.

The question is are those flight level winds translating to the surface. With the poor convective structure, I’d say it’s a lower translation rate than normal.

In gusts at best. Wait, I take that back. I doubt there's any TS force gusts at the surface either.

The last dropsonde recorded 41kt at surface, so yes there are at least TS force gusts in this thing. They were observed.

The same dropsonde recorded a 46kt average over the lowest 150 meters, which reduces to a 37kt sustained 10 meter wind.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like a soup sandwich, typical for June. Flossie imparting a lot of shear onto it.

[Sciencerocks]

[chaser1]

The question is are those flight level winds translating to the surface. With the poor convective structure, I’d say it’s a lower translation rate than normal.

In gusts at best. Wait, I take that back. I doubt there's any TS force gusts at the surface either.

The last dropsonde recorded 41kt at surface, so yes there are at least TS force gusts in this thing. They were observed.

The same dropsonde recorded a 46kt average over the lowest 150 meters, which reduces to a 37kt sustained 10 meter wind.

Given the (extremely) shallow premature state of the core, I would argue against standard dropsonde wind reflection formula's for assumed 10 meter winds (let alone whatever winds that actually reach the bottom 3 meters. Add "Barry" to the list of inappropriately named T.S.'s that deserve the tipped over white plastic lawn chair meme "We Will Rebuild"

[Ubuntwo]

In gusts at best. Wait, I take that back. I doubt there's any TS force gusts at the surface either.

The last dropsonde recorded 41kt at surface, so yes there are at least TS force gusts in this thing. They were observed.

The same dropsonde recorded a 46kt average over the lowest 150 meters, which reduces to a 37kt sustained 10 meter wind.

Given the (extremely) shallow premature state of the core, I would argue against standard dropsonde wind reflection formula's for assumed 10 meter winds (let alone whatever winds that actually reach the bottom 3 meters. Add "Barry" to the list of inappropriately named T.S.'s that deserve the tipped over white plastic lawn chair meme "We Will Rebuild"

The final (surface) observation on that dropsonde was 41 knots… seems to suggest otherwise. This feels especially wrong after the mid-level remnants of Barry led to flooding in Central Texas killing at least 25.

[chaser1]

The last dropsonde recorded 41kt at surface, so yes there are at least TS force gusts in this thing. They were observed.

The same dropsonde recorded a 46kt average over the lowest 150 meters, which reduces to a 37kt sustained 10 meter wind.

Given the (extremely) shallow premature state of the core, I would argue against standard dropsonde wind reflection formula's for assumed 10 meter winds (let alone whatever winds that actually reach the bottom 3 meters. Add "Barry" to the list of inappropriately named T.S.'s that deserve the tipped over white plastic lawn chair meme "We Will Rebuild"

The final (surface) observation on that dropsonde was 41 knots… seems to suggest otherwise. This feels especially wrong after the mid-level remnants of Barry led to flooding in Central Texas killing at least 25.

Surface measured sustained 60 second winds please. Flooding is an unfortunate result of varying dynamic circumstances. Loss of life makes such events TRAGIC.... but doesn't automatically qualify all such events as a direct result of a Tropical Storm or Hurricane.

[sasha_B]

Given the (extremely) shallow premature state of the core, I would argue against standard dropsonde wind reflection formula's for assumed 10 meter winds (let alone whatever winds that actually reach the bottom 3 meters. Add "Barry" to the list of inappropriately named T.S.'s that deserve the tipped over white plastic lawn chair meme "We Will Rebuild"

The final (surface) observation on that dropsonde was 41 knots… seems to suggest otherwise. This feels especially wrong after the mid-level remnants of Barry led to flooding in Central Texas killing at least 25.

Surface measured sustained 60 second winds please. Flooding is an unfortunate result of varying dynamic circumstances. Loss of life makes such events TRAGIC.... but doesn't automatically qualify all such events as a direct result of a Tropical Storm or Hurricane.

Barry was a tropical depression at landfall per the NHC's 2025.06.29/03z public advisory, so I don't think anyone's arguing it was a TS when it hit. But it was a tropical cyclone - the circulation was closed and an eyewall was developing before shear killed it - so naming and issuing advisories for a tropical cyclone was called for. Using reduced flight-level winds to estimate surface winds when data from instruments at the surface are deficient - as they may have been in Barry's NEQ at peak intensity - is a fairly standard and often necessary practice. Who knows, maybe they'll determine in reanalysis that those winds were unlikely to have translated to the surface, but given that it was approaching landfall and Mexico's met office had already issued warnings, erring on the side of caution was hardly an inappropriate decision.

[Ubuntwo]

Given the (extremely) shallow premature state of the core, I would argue against standard dropsonde wind reflection formula's for assumed 10 meter winds (let alone whatever winds that actually reach the bottom 3 meters. Add "Barry" to the list of inappropriately named T.S.'s that deserve the tipped over white plastic lawn chair meme "We Will Rebuild"

The final (surface) observation on that dropsonde was 41 knots… seems to suggest otherwise. This feels especially wrong after the mid-level remnants of Barry led to flooding in Central Texas killing at least 25.

Surface measured sustained 60 second winds please. Flooding is an unfortunate result of varying dynamic circumstances. Loss of life makes such events TRAGIC.... but doesn't automatically qualify all such events as a direct result of a Tropical Storm or Hurricane.

There were no buoys in the path of Barry’s RMW during its period as a tropical storm. So aircraft and satellite data is ALL we have. Dropsondes measured quite good mixing and a surface wind (yes, instantaneous) of 41kt. Reductions here supported at least 35kt. Flight level winds were 51kt. Wind pressure ratios on an MSLP of 1006mb with a very tight ROCI also support a tropical storm. So all available data points to gales being present within Barry.

The convective organization was lacking. You could argue Barry wasn’t a TS on this basis. The vortex was very compact and hard to distinguish within the broader convective mess of the tropical wave. There was convection, yes, just not banded or forming a CDO. I suspect the NHC of just last year wouldn’t have designated Barry, but during the early/mid 2000s they may have.

The National Weather Service WPC attributes the 20” of rain that fell to the remnants of Barry. Take it up with them. As with Helene, there were multiple factors, but the TC mid level energy being in place made things much worse. This was mostly directed at the comment that Barry “deserve[s] the tipped over white plastic lawn chair meme "We Will Rebuild" ”, which comes off as a bit insensitive in hindsight.

[LarryWx]

How remnants of Tropical Storm Barry are to blame for Texas floods


“The tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, combined with a stationary storm complex (which provided the lift) that was already sitting over Texas, resulted in slow-moving heavy downpours that produced prolific rainfall totals over a short period of time.”

https://www.winknews.com/weather/explai ... cb314.html

[Astromanía]

It has been a good period of rainfall in Mexico following Barry and all the EPAC systems in June

[cycloneye]

Here is loop of the merging between meso low and the remnants of Barry. My condolenses to all the families.

 https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1942335519951839642

[LarryWx]

Here is loop of the merging between meso low and the remnants of Barry. My condolenses to all the families.

 https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1942335519951839642

Luis/others,
Is there a chance that the name Barry will be retired as a result of its very high level of moisture leading to the TX floods?
Opinions?

[cycloneye]

I think it depends on how confident they are that was Barry and also all the data available will help. I am 50/50 on that.