Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[cycloneye]

06z GFS does not go more west like 00z.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/NbergWX/status/1978236775848972725

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1978374132547891514

[TomballEd]

Healthy looking for a wave near the Cabo Verdes in mid-October. Dry air to the N and westerly shear should hold it in check for now.

[cycloneye]

Models have been going back and forth on this with the GFS in particular bombing this out. The wave itself looks very healthy coming off Africa, this will be a lengthy thread.

Looks like it will be a long one. Already 4 pages and it has not been lemoned by NHC.

Looking good as it continues to move westward.

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1978456072936390906

[SFLcane]

[Category5Kaiju]

If everything goes right (in the perspective of the ocean/atmospheric variables, that is), I'd give this potential system a non-zero chance of being 2025's "Big One."

[LarryWx]

If everything goes right (in the perspective of the ocean/atmospheric variables, that is), I'd give this potential system a non-zero chance of being 2025's "Big One."

Hopefully everything won’t go “right” or rather “wrong” from my perspective. Fortunately, everything going wrong to make this the “Big One” will be difficult. Even if it ends up being a storm and it has notable land impacts, there are so many other possibilities than it being the “Big One”, which hopefully will end up being one that’s in the past like Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto depending on perspective.

[SFLcane]

If everything goes right (in the perspective of the ocean/atmospheric variables, that is), I'd give this potential system a non-zero chance of being 2025's "Big One."

Hopefully everything won’t go “right” or rather “wrong” from my perspective. Fortunately, everything going wrong to make this the “Big One” will be difficult. Even if it ends up being a storm and it has notable land impacts, there are so many other possibilities than it being the “Big One”, which hopefully will end up being Erin, Gabrielle, or Humberto depending on perspective.

Hey Larry, as of now i don't see anything showing a protective ridge over florida hence why i watching this one with interest. If it finds its way into the NW caribbean it could be a problem. no hits on the conus this season but just takes 1 memorable one

[LarryWx]

If everything goes right (in the perspective of the ocean/atmospheric variables, that is), I'd give this potential system a non-zero chance of being 2025's "Big One."

Hopefully everything won’t go “right” or rather “wrong” from my perspective. Fortunately, everything going wrong to make this the “Big One” will be difficult. Even if it ends up being a storm and it has notable land impacts, there are so many other possibilities than it being the “Big One”, which hopefully will end up being Erin, Gabrielle, or Humberto depending on perspective.

Hey Larry, as of now i don't see anything showing a protective ridge over florida hence why i watching this one with interest. If it finds its way into the NW caribbean it could be a problem. no hits on the conus this season but just takes 1 memorable one

Don’t forget that Chantal was a direct TS hit with significant NC impacts, including record 24 hour rainfall amounts in C NC. For those folks, it was bad. Also, Erin lead to significant impacts especially on NC coast despite not being a landfall. Hopefully that’s it for Conus and that everything going wrong won’t happen and cause devastation and misery for anyone anywhere.

[SFLcane]

Hopefully everything won’t go “right” or rather “wrong” from my perspective. Fortunately, everything going wrong to make this the “Big One” will be difficult. Even if it ends up being a storm and it has notable land impacts, there are so many other possibilities than it being the “Big One”, which hopefully will end up being Erin, Gabrielle, or Humberto depending on perspective.

Hey Larry, as of now i don't see anything showing a protective ridge over florida hence why i watching this one with interest. If it finds its way into the NW caribbean it could be a problem. no hits on the conus this season but just takes 1 memorable one

Don’t forget that Chantal was a direct TS hit with significant NC impacts, including record 24 hour rainfall amounts in C NC. For those folks, it was bad. Also, Erin lead to significant impacts especially on NC coast despite not being a landfall. Hopefully that’s it for Conus and that everything going wrong won’t happen and cause devastation and misery for anyone anywhere.

Yea some impacts outside the cone with erin and chantal was a ts with lots of rainfall for sure but we have been spared direct impacts from a big one up till this point.

[chaser1]

Im surprised that NHC hasn't tagged this as a 10%/30% lemon yet. Anyway, I do like the 6Z GFS solution. Seems very plausible

[SFLcane]

Im surprised that NHC hasn't tagged this as a 10%/30% lemon yet. Anyway, I do like the 6Z GFS solution. Seems very plausible

hmm i think its still 1-2 days away from being tagged on the TWO if model signal holds up.

[LarryWx]

Im surprised that NHC hasn't tagged this as a 10%/30% lemon yet. Anyway, I do like the 6Z GFS solution. Seems very plausible

No model is showing TCG within 48 hours. If it forms, many are suggesting it would be after 7 days. Thus I’d address it but put it at only 0%/20% to start.

[Spacecoast]

06z DeepMind Ensemble (FNV3): Yellowish is Ens mean hitting near cozumel



06z Graphcast Ensemble (GENC):

[ChrisH-UK]

Here is Google's Weather Lab run on the storm. Show's it coming in to the Caribbean and the curving in to Florida, looks like the typical tropical cyclone. Intensity wise well anything form a Tropical storm to a Cat 5, it's way to far out to be accurate.

Google Weather Lab Cyclone ML Model

[Fancy1002]

The sooner this is labeled an invest, the sooner we can get the hurricane models running.

[SouthFLTropics]

That’s a pretty big trough on the 12z GFS… looks like it may be enough to scoop this thing up and out of the Caribbean and across Hispaniola, hopefully before it has a chance to really ramp up.


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