#69 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Wed Jun 23, 2004 1:45 am
Well stated King. As bad as Isabel was to the Chesapeake Bay area and into the Virginia/North Carolina coast, it wasn't "a major hurricane" at landfall as it was a cat 2 at landfall along the North Carolina coast. The track took this system to northwest Virginia. Over Maryland, Isabel was just a tropical storm and we ended up with record storm surge of 6-8 feet.
Well guess what ladies and gentlemen, imagine if Isabels track was similar in landfall near Hatteras, only a cat 4-5 at landfall, which would wipe out the outer banks. Then imagine if it took a track right up the Chesapeake Bay or the entire length of the Delmarva Peninsula as opposed to well west of the bay as a full blown major hurricane. Folks may say it's impossible??? Well anything is possible and the worse case scenario we face in the Mid Atlantic/Chesapeake/Delaware Bays in a hurricane crisis would be the Chesapeake Bay overflowing with 8-12 foot or higher surge with very high winds gusting over cat 3-4 force with the eye right over the Chesapeake Bay area. Buildings in this region let alone trees would not withstand a hurricane of that intensity. In addition a cat 3+ hurricane over the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays would flood most of Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington DC and possibly cause damage 10 times worse than what tropical storm Isabel produced. The entire Mid Atlantic coast would have a disaster unlike any other if this scenario were to occur. It's unfortunately a scary thought we must keep in mind, which is why we all should prepare in advance from here in the Mid Atlantic all the way up into New York and New England. But the Chesapeake and Delaware Bay areas especially should keep in mind that hurricanes can and do strike even inland and could even be powerful on rare occasions. Even if it means alittle time share vacation on the beach, that threat maybe realized on that week. Preparation is key and should be taken seriously during all tropical situations even this far north. All it takes is one and while the Mid Atlantic and northeast United States doesn't get a direct hit often, given the increase boom in coastal population, it's I think the most hurricane proned area in the United States without question.
One example of past hurricanes in the Mid Atlantic was back in 1933 when two hurricanes occurred that year. The first one being the Chesapeake/Potomac Hurricane, which caused a record surge on the Chesapeake Bay. Then another hurricane nailed the OC area and was one of the worse hurricane encounters Ocean City, MD ever seen since the Assateague and Ocean City barrier islands split into two making what is the inlet at OC nowadays. Some folks this far north and up into New York and New England may give little thought about the threat of hurricanes. But unfortunately they do hit more densely populated areas even in the big cities of the northeast on very rare occasions. The last big hit off the coast of Ocean City, MD caused flooding on parts of coastal highway, splintered the boardwalk, and took out the pier there. The point is we haven't seen that kind of hurricane on the Maryland beaches in nearly 20 years? Will it happen again?? Yes it will, it's only a matter of when it will happen, how strong will it be, and the exact track, which is why preparation up this far north is so so important.
What's perhaps more scary if you will as stated just a minute ago is the increase in coastal population, especially across the northeast and Mid Atlantic coastal areas. This makes evacuating a tougher challenge than ever before thus making the northeast and mid atlantic one of the most proned hurricane zones in the country should a major hurricane of a cat 3 or higher hit this area. I think personally we must learn what Hurricane Isabel 2003, the 1933 hurricanes, the 1938 Long Island Express, and Gloria in 1985 did to this particular area of the Middle Atlantic and northeastern United States, especially now that we have a booming coastal population nowadays. At the same time it would be wise to look at possible scenarios and evacuation and preparation procedures well in advance should a much stronger storm system hit this region of the country with much stronger intensity over the Chesapeake Bay or the Delmarva Peninsula. Again some may think that is impossible, especially in the Chesapeake/Delaware Bay areas, but unfortunately it is, which is why we here in the Chesapeake Bay/Delaware Bay areas and the Delmarva Peninsula points northward should also remain aware to hurricanes and the power they bring. All it takes is one, especially in this part of the country where it's more proned than ever before especially with the coastal boom in population combined with this major hurricane threat.
Jim
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