On the Xmas events, southern snow, pattern....

[Amanzi]

I forgot to mention that areas of central and SFL could see a severe wx episode as the surface low crosses the northern part of the state.

NO NO NO!!!!!!

I forbid you to say such a thing, unless the lightning bolts come down and turn my neighbors lawn flamingos into ice-sculptures Im NOT interested in that for christmas weather....

[Brent]

I forgot to mention that areas of central and SFL could see a severe wx episode as the surface low crosses the northern part of the state.

NO NO NO!!!!!!

I forbid you to say such a thing, unless the lightning bolts come down and turn my neighbors lawn flamingos into ice-sculptures Im NOT interested in that for christmas weather....

Are they ugly?

[wxguy25]

I forgot to mention that areas of central and SFL could see a severe wx episode as the surface low crosses the northern part of the state.

NO NO NO!!!!!!

I forbid you to say such a thing, unless the lightning bolts come down and turn my neighbors lawn flamingos into ice-sculptures Im NOT interested in that for christmas weather....

Are they ugly?

Well that may not happen at all w/ most of the data phasing the PJ and STJ s/w energy. IF it was just the GFS doing so I would dismiss it b/c of the GFS's inability to handle energy in the STJ, but the past two runs of the ECMWF, 0z Canadian and UKMET all do the same. I can't wiggle my way around that. LOL!

[wxguy25]

And as it stands now you can TOSS the map from last night. That has little chance of verifying.

[wxguy25]

I forgot to mention that areas of central and SFL could see a severe wx episode as the surface low crosses the northern part of the state.

NO NO NO!!!!!!

I forbid you to say such a thing, unless the lightning bolts come down and turn my neighbors lawn flamingos into ice-sculptures Im NOT interested in that for christmas weather....

Are they ugly?

Bron, I live only a few minutes north of you -- on the border between Hammock and the Marineland. I remember seeing a house w/ ugly flamingos dotting the lawn when i was coming home from work on Wednesday. If they are the SAME flamingos at the same house, then yes I agree they NEED TO GO!! LOL!!

[Wnghs2007]

Well great I got all excited....But once again SCREWED!!!!!!

Stupid models.

[Brent]

And as it stands now you can TOSS the map from last night. That has little chance of verifying.

I know

[jkt21787]

Hey wxguy, what are your thoughts about the mid-week system? Do you believe the strength and track of the low on the GFS, seems hard for it to head straight north to the lakes.

[wxguy25]

Well great I got all excited....But once again SCREWED!!!!!!

Stupid models.

Game is not over yet. This is still days away and alot can change.

[Wnghs2007]

Well great I got all excited....But once again SCREWED!!!!!!

Stupid models.

Game is not over yet. This is still days away and alot can change.

Well DT said this... I cant post a link to it because thats not allowed but....

The reason is quite simple and can be seen on the 12z and )z SUNDAY euro. At 96 and 120 hours we can clearly see the second shortwave dropping South into old Mexico just south of Arizona and Swinging ey to Western Texas into Western TX. At that point ever pattern looks very similar to the operational European from sat 12z!!! ( which had the big SECS).
However we can see the important feature which is a strong shortwave which comes in from Alaska crashing into the top of the ridge passing through the Gulf of Alaska at 120 hrs then into far northWest Canada at 144 and 168.

Indeed most of the other global models show a similar development even at 00z and 12z today.

With the top of the ridge suppressed or flattened the second shortwave in Southwest Texas cannot make make the turn and as result we end up with a sheared out s/w and trough in the STJ . Is that solution correct?

There's a case the may be away at this point. Certainly the power of the Pacific jet cannot be ignored in this winter season which is a point I had maintained for over 45 days already. But on the other hand it is possible that the operational global models may have the right general idea BUT could easily be too fast with this important shortwave in the Gulf Alaska by 24 to 48 hours. If that s/w were to be delayed ... then our event for the East Coast could still take place quite easily.

[yoda]

Well great I got all excited....But once again SCREWED!!!!!!

Stupid models.

Game is not over yet. This is still days away and alot can change.

Well DT said this... I cant post a link to it because thats not allowed but....

The reason is quite simple and can be seen on the 12z and )z SUNDAY euro. At 96 and 120 hours we can clearly see the second shortwave dropping South into old Mexico just south of Arizona and Swinging ey to Western Texas into Western TX. At that point ever pattern looks very similar to the operational European from sat 12z!!! ( which had the big SECS).
However we can see the important feature which is a strong shortwave which comes in from Alaska crashing into the top of the ridge passing through the Gulf of Alaska at 120 hrs then into far northWest Canada at 144 and 168.

Indeed most of the other global models show a similar development even at 00z and 12z today.

With the top of the ridge suppressed or flattened the second shortwave in Southwest Texas cannot make make the turn and as result we end up with a sheared out s/w and trough in the STJ . Is that solution correct?

There's a case the may be away at this point. Certainly the power of the Pacific jet cannot be ignored in this winter season which is a point I had maintained for over 45 days already. But on the other hand it is possible that the operational global models may have the right general idea BUT could easily be too fast with this important shortwave in the Gulf Alaska by 24 to 48 hours. If that s/w were to be delayed ... then our event for the East Coast could still take place quite easily.

Good post by both DT and wxguy25.