Invest 95L is up!!!!

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#61 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:02 am

Doe's not look good for a upgrade.

The pressure is closer to 1007 millibars based on the obs posted above. Maybe even lower near the center(Pressure center) because thats went from 1011.0 to 1007 mililbars with in 40 miles...Interesting system.
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Anonymous

#62 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:05 am

Well, I tanked this one. LOL Great job Matt! It looks better organized, and...with atleast a day left over water, looks like the Atlantic/Pacific will be 2-3...

I will do a Tropical Video Update on it after 11am E.
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#63 Postby clfenwi » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:12 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Thats a 4 millibar grade with in 40 miles??? :eek: 120 miles to 81 miles.


Yeah, looking at that, the Coatzacoalcos ob seems a bit suspect maybe (came from the wunderground page you had linked earlier... also, just realized it was an hour earlier than the other obs)

METAR from nearby Minatitlan (83 nm SSW of center) showed 29.82" (1009.8 mb) at 1245Z.
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#64 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:13 am

cycloneye wrote:[/img] TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050628 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050628 1200 050629 0000 050629 1200 050630 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.6N 95.0W 20.3N 96.5W 21.0N 98.1W 21.8N 99.7W
BAMM 19.6N 95.0W 20.1N 96.5W 20.6N 98.1W 21.4N 99.7W
A98E 19.6N 95.0W 20.4N 96.7W 21.4N 98.4W 22.7N 100.2W
LBAR 19.6N 95.0W 20.4N 97.1W 21.6N 99.7W 23.2N 102.3W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 26KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050630 1200 050701 1200 050702 1200 050703 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.5N 101.3W 23.2N 104.6W 23.4N 107.8W 23.4N 111.0W
BAMM 22.0N 101.2W 22.9N 104.2W 23.1N 107.4W 23.1N 110.9W
A98E 23.9N 102.3W 25.2N 106.2W 25.8N 108.4W 26.1N 108.5W
LBAR 24.6N 104.6W 26.7N 107.8W 27.4N 109.0W 27.9N 107.6W
SHIP 44KTS 48KTS 48KTS 43KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 29KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.6N LONCUR = 95.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 19.2N LONM12 = 93.0W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.9N LONM24 = 91.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


MW the models dont have it as a TD this morning.Let's see in the afternoon.


Image
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#65 Postby tw861 » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:14 am

I've been looking at some visual loops and have become slightly confused while trying to pinpoint a center. I looks to me like the center is near 19.5/95.5 moving off to the west. However, up around 21.5/93.0 or so there seems to be hints of another spin so my questions are..

1. Is this an elongated area of low pressure.

2. Are there two centers competeing or is a secondary center forming further NE.

Take a look and see what you guys think.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#66 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:19 am

1008.0 millibars falling...
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/76741.html
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#67 Postby drezee » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:20 am

The center is near 20.4N 95.0W, IMO.
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#68 Postby loon » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:22 am

I agree drezee....very close to there, looking like its moving more west...
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#69 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:30 am

It will be inland with any signifcant developement at the rate. Looks like a TD currently
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#70 Postby loon » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:41 am

I will admit something looks to be spinning at some level at around 22 or 23N...looks to be moving west also. Could the center be re-establishing itself? Or has the late night bourbon clouded my vision again...
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#71 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:47 am

Image
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#72 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:47 am

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#73 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:51 am

HURAKAN next 36 hours it will be inland.
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#74 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:53 am

cycloneye wrote:HURAKAN next 36 hours it will be inland.


That's the same thing that I thought.
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loon
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#75 Postby loon » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:54 am

It is freaking dry up here (to the storms north). Poor little guy just can't win, the shear dropped off (still dropping) but the dry air really set in, and with its westerly track, it'll be inland before it can really fire off....*sigh* Well, something to watch for another 24 hours or so...how strong will it get with its limited time...
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#76 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Jun 28, 2005 9:55 am

Notice the circle of "tropical cyclone formation" also stretches a little inland into Mexico too.
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#77 Postby Normandy » Tue Jun 28, 2005 12:44 pm

May be a depression but its running outta time to become a TS.
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#78 Postby dhweather » Tue Jun 28, 2005 12:58 pm

It's looking pretty decent right now, may be a depression:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#79 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 28, 2005 12:59 pm

Here's a GARP image from 17Z. I put a center near 19.6N/95.4W. Certainly looks better organized than Arlene was for most of its life. But the NHC has apparently decided that this system won't develop and/or it'll be moving inland soon so they're going to ignore it. It's not that far from moving ashore. Could be inland by sunrise tomorrow.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/boc4.gif">
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#80 Postby clfenwi » Tue Jun 28, 2005 1:34 pm

MMVR 281750Z 00000KT 5SM -RA BKN030 BKN080 OVC120 25/24 A2987 RMK SLP104 52006 60055 8/57/ 984 ISOL LOW STFRA ALQD=

Latest ob from Veracruz showing Sea Level Pressure of 1010.4 mb

That station is 49 nm WSW from the center estimated by wxman57
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