Dr Grays August Update=20/10/6

[sweetpea]

I agree, everyone should move away from Florida, especially the yanks!

Bad Kevin!....but true! oops did I say that?

That's not nice guys.

[johngaltfla]

If Florida gets hammered again like last year Im moving away from here. Cost of living is just gonna be ridiculous.

<RICKY>

I know. Insurers are bailing from this state like the 82nd from a C-130.

We'll soon have the state sponsored insurance only and if that's the case it will cause a massive tax increase to cover the losses.

We need to stop building so close to the coast. State sponsored insurance is a joke. No competition = Huge Premiums. In the thousands, not hundreds.

That theory about the coast doesn't hold up.

If you don't believe me, visit Wachula, Arcadia, Lake Wales and Avon Park.

I have clients there and see them all the time. Some are just now getting foundations poured for their new homes as a result of Charley.

Hurricanes are no longer considered just "coastal" disasters. The insurers are weary because of what happened in the 1920-1950 period.

All it takes is one major hurricane per year crossing the peninsula and the insurers are in trouble.

All it will take now is a Cat 3 or higher hitting the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale or Tampa-St. Pete area to bankrupt some insurers and put the state into a major fiscal crisis.

THAT'S the big reason for alarm from the NOAA and Dr. Gray advisories. The insurers were betting against two strong seasons in a row. They fail to realize that the data on hand is only valid for a little over 150 years. There is no climatogical history for hurricane seasons 200, 400 or 1000 years ago. If this is a similar cycle to 30 A.D., we'll have no clue as to what would or will happen.

Insuring a homeowner in Florida now is no better than Roulette.

[johngaltfla]

Very scary. Almost makes me want to run out and stock up now. I have only partially stocked up.

You've only "partially stocked up" and it's August 3rd?????????????????????

It's called denial.

Denial is not a river in Florida. But if you don't prep, it could be a lake in your living room...

[dwg71]

If Florida gets hammered again like last year Im moving away from here. Cost of living is just gonna be ridiculous.

<RICKY>

I know. Insurers are bailing from this state like the 82nd from a C-130.

We'll soon have the state sponsored insurance only and if that's the case it will cause a massive tax increase to cover the losses.

We need to stop building so close to the coast. State sponsored insurance is a joke. No competition = Huge Premiums. In the thousands, not hundreds.

That theory about the coast doesn't hold up.

If you don't believe me, visit Wachula, Arcadia, Lake Wales and Avon Park.

I have clients there and see them all the time. Some are just now getting foundations poured for their new homes as a result of Charley.

Hurricanes are no longer considered just "coastal" disasters. The insurers are weary because of what happened in the 1920-1950 period.

All it takes is one major hurricane per year crossing the peninsula and the insurers are in trouble.

All it will take now is a Cat 3 or higher hitting the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale or Tampa-St. Pete area to bankrupt some insurers and put the state into a major fiscal crisis.

THAT'S the big reason for alarm from the NOAA and Dr. Gray advisories. The insurers were betting against two strong seasons in a row. They fail to realize that the data on hand is only valid for a little over 150 years. There is no climatogical history for hurricane seasons 200, 400 or 1000 years ago. If this is a similar cycle to 30 A.D., we'll have no clue as to what would or will happen.

Insuring a homeowner in Florida now is no better than Roulette.

And we need stronger building codes. A $200,000 home in a coastal county in Florida will cost $5000 to insure within the next 10 years. Reinsurance cost are already going through the roof. Lets hope that we avoid a catastrophe for a while.

[johngaltfla]

If Florida gets hammered again like last year Im moving away from here. Cost of living is just gonna be ridiculous.

<RICKY>

I know. Insurers are bailing from this state like the 82nd from a C-130.

We'll soon have the state sponsored insurance only and if that's the case it will cause a massive tax increase to cover the losses.

We need to stop building so close to the coast. State sponsored insurance is a joke. No competition = Huge Premiums. In the thousands, not hundreds.

That theory about the coast doesn't hold up.

If you don't believe me, visit Wachula, Arcadia, Lake Wales and Avon Park.

I have clients there and see them all the time. Some are just now getting foundations poured for their new homes as a result of Charley.

Hurricanes are no longer considered just "coastal" disasters. The insurers are weary because of what happened in the 1920-1950 period.

All it takes is one major hurricane per year crossing the peninsula and the insurers are in trouble.

All it will take now is a Cat 3 or higher hitting the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale or Tampa-St. Pete area to bankrupt some insurers and put the state into a major fiscal crisis.

THAT'S the big reason for alarm from the NOAA and Dr. Gray advisories. The insurers were betting against two strong seasons in a row. They fail to realize that the data on hand is only valid for a little over 150 years. There is no climatogical history for hurricane seasons 200, 400 or 1000 years ago. If this is a similar cycle to 30 A.D., we'll have no clue as to what would or will happen.

Insuring a homeowner in Florida now is no better than Roulette.

And we need stronger building codes. A $200,000 home in a coastal county in Florida will cost $5000 to insure within the next 10 years. Reinsurance cost are already going through the roof. Lets hope that we avoid a catastrophe for a while.

I wish I could feel so positive. But IMHO, within the next 10 years, we'll see a strong Cat 4 or Cat 5 superstorm slam the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale or Tampa-St. Pete area.

$100 billion will seem like chump change.

[WeatherEmperor]

that is the scary part. If another Andrew type storm causes billions of damage in south florida say hello to sky high premiums.

<RICKY>

[feederband]

that is the scary part. If another Andrew type storm causes billions of damage in south florida say hello to sky high premiums.

<RICKY>

Say no premiums some of the big boys would leave the state...

[Normandy]

Not a big surprise. I still think he is too high. I say 17 named storms/ 7 hurricanes and 4 majors. With no majors hitting US mainland, and 5 storms making US landfalls with concentration from Miami to NC.

Wasn't Dennis a major at landfall ?

I'm referring to this point forward...

dwg, you are the most optimistic person I've seen on here. Unfortunately, probably a little too optimistic, but I hope you're right. Leave the devastating hurricanes over the open waters.

I think some on here would call me a pessimist. lol I just think the dooms day predictions are annoying. 2 Hurricanes through mid August is not what I call a premonition of the apocolypse.

Those werent just two hurricanes, they were two consecutive record breaking hurricanes. If you dont find that out-of-character for the tropics then....

[jdray]

If Florida gets hammered again like last year Im moving away from here. Cost of living is just gonna be ridiculous.

<RICKY>

I know. Insurers are bailing from this state like the 82nd from a C-130.

We'll soon have the state sponsored insurance only and if that's the case it will cause a massive tax increase to cover the losses.

We need to stop building so close to the coast. State sponsored insurance is a joke. No competition = Huge Premiums. In the thousands, not hundreds.

That theory about the coast doesn't hold up.

If you don't believe me, visit Wachula, Arcadia, Lake Wales and Avon Park.

I have clients there and see them all the time. Some are just now getting foundations poured for their new homes as a result of Charley.

Hurricanes are no longer considered just "coastal" disasters. The insurers are weary because of what happened in the 1920-1950 period.

All it takes is one major hurricane per year crossing the peninsula and the insurers are in trouble.

All it will take now is a Cat 3 or higher hitting the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale or Tampa-St. Pete area to bankrupt some insurers and put the state into a major fiscal crisis.

THAT'S the big reason for alarm from the NOAA and Dr. Gray advisories. The insurers were betting against two strong seasons in a row. They fail to realize that the data on hand is only valid for a little over 150 years. There is no climatogical history for hurricane seasons 200, 400 or 1000 years ago. If this is a similar cycle to 30 A.D., we'll have no clue as to what would or will happen.

Insuring a homeowner in Florida now is no better than Roulette.

Im in Clay County, Florida. My insurance premium has not gone up. Granted, Im 40 miles inland, but like you said, Hurricanes are now "considered" a state event.

My friends in Deltona took a beating even though they are inland.


I have a feeling that my corner of the state will be the last bastion of insurance available when we get more hits. At least I still have my Allstate policy (who knows for how long though)

[Downdraft]

It's interesting this year to see the change in attitude around Central Florida. For years those of us in emergency management/services and especially those of us that track tropical weather for a living or for a hobby have been telling people to get their heads out of the sand. Last year made believers out of a lot of people including the State. It was great to see the tax holiday for hurricane supplies and the stores are still pushing "stock till you drop." I'm reasonably confident that most people are geared up, stocked up and ready. Two words that describe the latest "up" in the updates is awesome and frightening. I can see many nights ahead hooked up to an I-V pump filled with coffee as I watch this board bleary eyed.

[EDR1222]

There should could definately be some long nights ahead.

Hopefully those numbers don't pan out. Although the August updates are usually pretty accurate! Scary to think of it.

[drezee]

The number that caught my eye was 44 hurricane days...

[KeyLargoDave]

For one bit of data about insurance rates, I'm already paying $2400 a year for only $70,000 in coverage. That's $6857 for a $200,000 house (if you want it fully insured). Not "within the next ten years," it's already happened.

As I've said before, there's no valid reason for homeowner's insurance companies to charge so much -- I have separate flood and windstorm insurance, never a claim, no damage from Andrew or any storm last year. The homeowner's companies have totally dropped the risk in places like the Keys. It's a scam. All I can figure is that we are giving the finance firms play money to lose in the stock market, and cash for $100-million CEO payoffs. <Shakes fist at sky>

[Hurricaneman]

Those number are quite high, but they seem correct because of how the season is evolving

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

No surprises with this forecast based on what has happened so far and how conditions are expected to remain favorable.

[Brent]

The number that caught my eye was 44 hurricane days...

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[abajan]

I think Gray's numbers are still too low. My guess now (after all that incredible activity over the last month) is that we're looking at something more like a total of 25/16/9!

(Remember, Gray has a habit of underestimating activity.)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Let's see
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Delta
Epsilon
Zeta....interesting season in full swing

[storms in NC]

Let's see
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Delta
Epsilon
Zeta....interesting season in full swing

LOL I don't think a lot of people would know what you are taking about.I do was USAF for 20

[Hurricaneman]

I can see it now, Hurricane Delta headed for the Mississippi Delta