TD#9

[senorpepr]

:chopper:
when will recon go?

Not for a while... 09L is still WAY out there. Recon can't make a flight at this distance.

[Brent]

It's only at 34 W right now... recon won't go out til at least 52 W or so...

[x-y-no]

:chopper:
when will recon go?

LOL!

Not for a long time ...

[storm4u]

I can agree that this is probably one of the most hyped up waves/TD's I have ever seen here. And for good reason.

I think the audience has grown significantly on this forum and all are perched to watch systems. Mods can confirm the traffic on the board but I for one joined last year and I think a ton of people have also done so.

Seems to me that for EVERY system you will see major hype as people have discovered this site and its value for following storm development and the give and take between "guessers" like us and the pro Mets.

IMO, there is NO BETTER place to follow tropical systems than S2K; and the secret is out..

This is the best place to follow storms i also joined last year!! Everyone here is great. Its like the tropical family i never had haha

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I heard those kind of planes or something like them are flying from a America alway across the global to fight the war in Iraq. Why can't we have one of those do recon?

[Sanibel]

Smells like a biggy to me and in the high August latent heat/humidity conditions.

Is this the SE coast storm we were speculating about?

[WindRunner]

Intensification will be very slow because of the hugeness. But don't storms this big usually have very tight 50kt and 64kt radii?

No thier winds can go out hundreds of miles

Sure, the 34kt wind radii can go out 200 miles with an average storm. But the small 50 and 64kt wind radii is what contains the strength of major storms and makes them able to have such strong winds. Yet the radii would still be proportional, but slightly smaller than the proportion of the weaker storm.

[x-y-no]

I heard those kind of planes or something like them are flying from a America alway across the global to fight the war in Iraq. Why can't we have one of those do recon?

Hmm ... don't think I'd want to be the pilot who had to fly a B2 through the eyewall of a hurricane ...

[gkrangers]

I heard those kind of planes or something like them are flying from a America alway across the global to fight the war in Iraq. Why can't we have one of those do recon?

Because they aren't equipped for it. Also, who cares? Recon isn't necessary until the storm is close to be a threat to land...50W is just fine.

[wxman57]

Interesting that the 12Z GFS has changed its tune on the "fish philosophy". It now rebuilds the ridge north of Irene and heads it toward the mid Atlantic coast in two weeks. As far out as this system is, it may be 4-5 days before we see any recon head out.

[Swimdude]

Luis, will this be considered the first Cape Verde system of the season?

YES.

WOOHOO! CV season has begun; August 3rd.

[deltadog03]

good point WXman...yeah, every model is going to change there tune...thats just the way it is...GFS (and others) are always gonna due that...question, was there any model that started it on a NW track??

[Brent]

As all we know, by tonight or tomorrow morning this will become the earliest that the 9th system reaches tropical storm intensity. Will Irene follow Isabel and Ivan's path of intensity? Time will tell, but the answer is around the corner.

I'm thinking it might follow Isabel... at least initially. Maybe like Frances but a bit farther north.

I'm always weary of recurves until they actually start.

[WindRunner]

Luis, will this be considered the first Cape Verde system of the season?

YES.

WOOHOO! CV season has begun; August 3rd.

One more record to claim for '05.

[txwatcher91]

If you look at the water vapor link below, you can see an explosion on the south side of the storm.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Edit #1- Also, look at the visible and you can see more thunderstorm tops beginning to pop up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
I would't be surprised if it becomes a TS Irene by 11 tonight.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Interesting that the 12Z GFS has changed its tune on the "fish philosophy". It now rebuilds the ridge north of Irene and heads it toward the mid Atlantic coast in two weeks. As far out as this system is, it may be 4-5 days before we see any recon head out.

You have the site for GFS after 5 days?

[BensonTCwatcher]

OK, my serving of crow for the record. I said it would come out as a TS not a TD. ( I still think it is a TS)

I also said that it would stay west for while. Guess I'm batting 500. I won't even guess at whether it will impact the islands, FL east coast or GOM

I will say it has all the presentation of a major and I don't see any dry air out there. It's all about the ridge and how fast she "spools" up as to the track.

My gut says I should watch this closely, and plan to be around the house (just in case) late next week

[storm4u]

this may be a stupid question but it looks more and more oragnized everytime i look at it but could they call this a tropical storm at 5!?

[mvtrucking]

hey, that 98E model could be right too...nobody knows....

link?Thanks

[deltadog03]

ummm....its on the model plots...lemme see if i can find it...