Invest 90L=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

Scorpion · #61 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:26 pm

Well thats good. Doesn't look to be much of a problem anymore.

OURAGAN · #62 Postby **OURAGAN** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 1:44 pm

People in the lesser antilles watch out to this system.
It' s moving west quickly.
Look-at this part of the 2.05 pm discussion.

A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 18N49W...WITH STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW PUSHING THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 38W QUICKLY TO THE W.

#63 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:18 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050827 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050827 1800 050828 0600 050828 1800 050829 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.8N 39.3W 12.2N 41.9W 12.7N 44.6W 13.3N 47.5W
BAMM 11.8N 39.3W 12.4N 41.5W 13.2N 44.1W 14.0N 46.9W
A98E 11.8N 39.3W 12.6N 41.7W 13.3N 44.3W 13.6N 47.1W
LBAR 11.8N 39.3W 12.4N 42.3W 13.2N 45.9W 13.8N 49.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050829 1800 050830 1800 050831 1800 050901 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 50.6W 14.9N 56.5W 16.5N 62.9W 18.4N 68.5W
BAMM 15.1N 49.9W 17.4N 56.1W 20.4N 62.2W 23.7N 66.3W
A98E 13.7N 50.0W 14.9N 56.0W 16.0N 62.0W 16.9N 68.0W
LBAR 14.4N 53.9W 15.6N 61.2W 20.4N 65.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 44KTS 49KTS 53KTS 56KTS
DSHP 44KTS 49KTS 53KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 39.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 11.4N LONM12 = 36.8W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 35.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z Models

There is a spread of the tropical models between going away from islands to come close to Puerto Rico.

#64 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:33 pm

Above is graphic of the 18:00z Model Guidance.

Hurricaneman · #65 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 2:33 pm

Im going to watch this one very carefully

#66 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:07 pm

Anywhere from fishing, to moving straight in the Carib. Watch this pretty closely.

johngaltfla · #67 Postby **johngaltfla** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:54 pm

I don't think our high will let it go fishing.

More fun and games next week gang. No breaks between now and October, IMHO. :eek:

#68 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 3:56 pm

This graphic is a nitid one.Look how the models spread out.

#69 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 4:08 pm

Watching this one from St. Maarten but praying VERY hard for all of our members in the path of Katrina. Even beung so far away, it is scary. Luckily, she dropped south before passing over our house in SW FL. From what I've heard, we had very little wind and some rain. Those in Miami have my thoughts as well. We see a little of what happened on CNN.

Wishing you all the best and even more importantly wishing you didn't have to go through what you are facing. BE SAFE. It's hard not having computer access all the time but vacation is great!

Lynn

ConvergenceZone · #70 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 4:16 pm

krysof wrote:The NHC said the same thing about a depression forming the next day, but it never did. After Katrina ends, the tropics will quiet down a lot. Since September's coming up, hurricane season will be coming to an end, at least the active periods. 11 named storms currently, i think a couple are definite. Final should be 14 to 15.

dude, no disrespect but in NO WAY is hurricane season coming to an end!! We aren't even at the midpoint yet!! Hurricanes often form in September(the busiest month) and October. How you can even say that hurricane season will be coming to an end after Katrina is beyond me.

Florida_TSR · #71 Postby **Florida_TSR** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 4:49 pm

A depression is forming - this storm is really starting to get organized. The NHC should upgrade tonight or tomorrow AM.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #72 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 4:52 pm

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Tampa Bay Hurricane · #73 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 4:52 pm

really getting organized

artist · #74 Postby **artist** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 4:52 pm

We got hit by both Jeanne and Frances in Sept. of last year - don't think it is over until it IS over.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #75 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 4:56 pm

Scorpion wrote:Well thats good. Doesn't look to be much of a problem anymore.

Too early to say this for 90L :wink:

krysof · #76 Postby **krysof** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 4:57 pm

TD 13 not happening. If it actually does get TD status it certainly won't be tonight or tomorrow morning. Very slow development. I'm 90-100% sure they won't initiate advisories tonight or tomorrow.

lurkerinthemidst · #77 Postby **lurkerinthemidst** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:02 pm

krysof wrote:The NHC said the same thing about a depression forming the next day, but it never did. After Katrina ends, the tropics will quiet down a lot. Since September's coming up, hurricane season will be coming to an end, at least the active periods. 11 named storms currently, i think a couple are definite. Final should be 14 to 15.

What? September is considered to be the busiest. In NORMAL years the season is just really getting going.

Florida_TSR · #78 Postby **Florida_TSR** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:03 pm

Upper level winds have become much better for development. We have another depression here.[/quote]

#79 Postby **Noah** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:16 pm

can someone tell me what im looking at that might be the next storm? I dont have trained eyes,,anyone have a pointer? :multi:

WindRunner · #80 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Aug 27, 2005 5:20 pm

On the map above, about 12N and 40W

Invest 90L=Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

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