quandary wrote:Ok lets not make a frenzy out of this beforehand.
A few soothing thoughts:
First, Rita is very unlikely to be more damaging than Katrina. Katrina flooded 80% of New Orleans. It made an extremely large city completely inhabitable. So even though Katrina did not take the worst path, it did nearly as much as it could damagewise. Add that to the 918 pressure at landfall, which, if we have already forgotten, was the 3rd lowest on record. True Katrina's winds were only 140-145 mph at landfall, but 918mb storms cause 918mb damage. That's what Joe Bastardi said, which makes a lot of logical sense. Wind speed might not be based on pressure, but surge is, as is damage, since a 918mb storm with 145 mph winds will have them extend out very far as Katrina's did, whereas a 918 storm with 180mph winds will have them extend out only as far as Andrew's did. So as long as the storm does not make direct landfall on a city, which is rare probabilistically (100s of miles of coastline, less than dozens of miles of real heavy duty city).
More likely than not, Rita will be bad. Maybe it will pull a Bret and hit an unpopulated area, where even 115 (or 145mph, by the same token) winds will not do much. More likely, it'll make landfall near but not over a major city. Damage will be widespread, just like during Charley or Ivan or Andrew, but it will likely not be the economically devastating impact of Katrina.
You have to remember, if this storm follows its projected path along the central Texas coast, there ae a lot of oil refineries and oil rigs that could take a big-time hit from this big-time cane. That itself would be a big economical hit. Not to mention all the lives that will be impacted. It's like watching a train wreck and there's no way to stop it.
Also, several other posters pointed out that NOLA wasn't the only area damaged. I agree. There are towns south and east of the city in LA that were completely wiped off the map, fishing communities that are so far gone they may never come back. And let's not talk about the entire Mississippi coast.
If this thing is as strong as Katrina coming in the trajectory that it's coming in, it would be even worse in some respects because it's putting Houston/Galveston in the right front quadrant. NOLA, as bad off as it was, wasn't in that most dangerous part of the storm, and it still flooded. Imagine Houston/Galveston in the right front quadrant of this thing. Let alone central Texas. It will be a mess.
God bless Texas.
