Tropical Wave at Caribbean

[caribepr]

Wa La!

Voila?

Of course it is But I've been writing it that way for many years Wa La, that's my story and I'm stickin' (sticking) to it!

[tampaflwx]

Wa La!

Voila?

Of course it is But I've been writing it that way for many years Wa La, that's my story and I'm stickin' (sticking) to it!

Suuuree........... It's okay, I won't tell anyone that you didn't know how to spell it.

Back onto topic... 18z models.



http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

[tampaflwx]

satellite imagery

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks a possible threat to Flordia or gulf coast?

[tampaflwx]

Just curious, what makes you say that? This system is really far away from the US still... plus, the cold air has moved into the Gulf with the front already, so it would be hard to get a big system into the gulf. Nothing's impossible with this season, though. Let's keep watching it for now and see if anything further develops.

[Weatherfreak14]

Right now through couples days reallly we have to see what it does but anything is possible.

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

SQUALLY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...PUPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.

[bigmike]

Hmmm another 50 page plus post coming for a system that has little chance of getting into the GOM and is probably a 30% chance to hit the east coast.

Care to explain why?

Sure:
1. Westerlies are well established
2. If the system in the SW Carib develops either system will be in close proximity with each other and one will have a hard time dealing with it,
3. The models that are posted here are not very reliable. Most of the globals do a much different scenario with this system. Just my humble opinion and 30 years of weather forecasting experience. Take it for what it's worth.

[tampaflwx]

5:30pm TWO:

SQUALLY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...PUPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.

Hey guys... PUPER LEVEL WINDS! is that like after you eat a lot of cabbage?

[mtm4319]

Storms that passed within 100 nautical miles of 11.3, 57.3 between October 1 and December 31:

#7 in 1892:


#6 in 1894:


#5 in 1895:


#9 in 1898:


#12 in 1916:


Gertrude in 1974:


Isaac in 1988:


Joan in 1988:


Pablo in 1995:


Joyce in 2000:


Iris in 2001:


Jerry in 2001:


Of these twelve, six became hurricanes after passing near that point. Five of them made landfall at a place other than the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. Iris hit Belize; Joan hit Nicaragua; the 1892 storm hit Honduras, Belize, and Mexico; and the 1895 and 1898 storms hit Cuba and the Bahamas. None of them made US landfall.

============================

Storms that passed between 100 and 200 nautical miles of 11.3, 57.3 between October 1 and December 31:

#6 in 1879:


#19 in 1887:


#8 in 1888:


#6 in 1896:


Jose in 1999:


Adding these to the stats...

Of these seventeen, eight were hurricanes after passing near that point. Seven of them made landfall at a place other than the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. Four of them hit Central America. Iris hit Belize; Joan hit Nicaragua; the 1892 storm hit Honduras, Belize, and Mexico; the 1887 storm hit Costa Rica. The other three affected Cuba: the 1879 storm hit Cuba and northwest Florida, and brushed Jamaica and the Cayman Islands; and the 1895 and 1898 storms hit Cuba and the Bahamas. Only one made US landfall -- the 1879 storm that hit near Fort Walton Beach.

[cycloneye]

SQUALLY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS SPREADING
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.




10:30 PM TWO

[gatorcane]

looking at 91L tonight it's getting me concerned. There is some slight rotation visibile in the satellite and it's moving into a favorable area for development.

Could this be Gamma?

[Anonymous]

I expect this could develop into a western caribbean storm

[O Town]

Interesting.

[cycloneye]

W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG
60W S OF 18N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
12N...MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN UPPER HIGH IS E OF THE WAVE
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/CONVECTION. UPPER WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N57W 11N59W OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO
14N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.



8 AM Discussion.

[bvigal]

Storms that passed within ...

THANKS for that great post, MTM. It was really interesting to see past history on late-season low-riders like 91!!!

[Hyperstorm]

Over the past 24 hours, upper-level conditions over the tropical wave that is entering the Lesser Antilles have gradually become more favorable just as suggested by the GFS a few days ago. These upper-level winds are forecast by the GFS to become even more favorable in 1-2 days in the central Caribbean Sea. This would only mean one thing: Potential for strong development. SSTs are very high even for this time of the year and wind shear is expected to be a non-factor in the near future (This is VERY unusual for this time of year over the eastern Caribbean Sea.).

Invest 91L has re-fired significant convection over the wave axis over the past 12 hours. Believe it or not, you can see signs of banding beginning to take shape as I type! There are NO signs of a surface circulation, but I expect that by this afternoon a mid-level circulation becomes evident in satellite imagery (This is what normally follows a relatively organized FIRST burst of convection in a system.) When that mid-level circulation develops, it usually takes about 24 hours for a surface circulation to do so, if atmospheric/environmental conditions are favorable. Since there will be ample supply of warm water and very favorable conditions setting up, a surface circulation developing tomorrow is a distinct possibility. Once that circulation develops, watch out for continued development.

This system will likely develop into a tropical depression in 36-60 hours, that is by late tomorrow (when that surface circulation develops) or the day after (when nocturnal maxima occurs in the morning). Watch for the signs.

The extratropical low that was forecast by some models to develop just north of Cuba has not yet done so. This would only mean a continued westward track through the Caribbean Sea beneath a VERY large ridge of high pressure just to its north. This track should continue until the system reaches the south-westerly flow that is usually situated this time of year over the western Atlantic, NW Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Puerto Rico should be safe from this system and probably not much in the way of shower activity directly associated with it, as it is fairly compact and far enough south. The Greater Antilles from Hispaniola westward should be most concerned.

SSTs 85*...

[no advance]

85 wow. Rapid development is possible?

[Hyperstorm]

Update:

Pressure falls of 2 millibars in 24 hours reported in the Windward Islands with the wave passage. This is fairly significant since the developmental threshold is near 3 millibars. This proves the point that the wave is quite vigorous for this time of year and must be watched for near-term development.

[O Town]