T.S. BETA Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 272033
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...BETA DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT
60 MILES... 95 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
165 MILES... 265 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN
ANDRES LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...
SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...11.7 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 272040
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

BETA REMAINS A SMALL AND WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
PATTERN SEEN THIS MORNING HAS BECOME MORE OF A CURVED BAND
PATTERN...WITH INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING TOPS OF -75C TO -80C. AN
AMSU OVERPASS AT 1547Z SHOWED A BANDING EYE UNDERNEATH THE
CONVECTIVE TOPS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM
TAFB...45 KT FROM SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/3. BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AFTER A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH IN
THE NEXT 24-36 HR...THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE NORTHWARD AND
ALLOW A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE BETA TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD
MOTION. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...
WITH THE GFS AND GFDL CALLING FOR A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TURN...AND THE UKMET AND NOGAPS CALLING FOR A MORE GRADUAL WESTWARD
TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE MODELS AND IS JUST
EAST AND NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TWO
MODELS WHICH BRING BETA NORTHWARD TOWARD CUBA AND FLORIDA...LBAR
AND THE CANADIAN...HAVE SHOWN A NORTHWARD BIAS IN PREVIOUS SIMILAR
SITUATIONS. THEREFORE...WHILE NOT BEING RULED OUT AS POSSIBILITIES
THEY ARE BEING GIVEN LITTLE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...
WITH THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWING A 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OR GREATER STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THIS...MAKING BETA A HURRICANE IN JUST OVER 12 HR AND A 75 KT
SYSTEM IN 24 HR. ONE POSSIBLE RESTRAINING FACTOR IS THAT THE WARM
WATER OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THE
SLOW MOTION OF BETA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME UPWELLING OF COLD
WATER. HOWEVER...THE EFFECTS OF THIS MAY NOT BE FELT FOR 24 HR OR
MORE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT
RATE AFTER 24 HR BASED ON THIS POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT
BE ANY SURPRISE IF BETA GOT STRONGER AND BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE.
AFTER LANDFALL...BETA SHOULD WEAKEN..ESPECIALLY WHEN IT REACHES THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

MOST OF THE RAINFALL CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BETA IS OFFSHORE.
ONCE THE STORM COMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO BRING THE RAINS
ONSHORE...FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL BECOME SERIOUS THREATS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 11.7N 81.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 12.1N 81.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 12.6N 81.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 13.0N 82.0W 85 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 13.3N 82.5W 90 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 13.5N 83.5W 95 KT...NEAR COAST
96HR VT 31/1800Z 13.5N 85.0W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1800Z 13.0N 87.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING


$$

When the NHC is actually calling for rapid intensification...you know it's gonna happen. Those guys are pretty conservative. They only make that call a few times...TS Dennis, TS Rita, and TS Wilma are the only ones this year where I can recall them forecasting rapid intensification well in advance.

We'll probably see a tightly-packed Cat4 out of this. Just pray it doesn't landfall like that, and pray that the moisture doesn't work its' way up to Guatemala.

[Praxus]

The latest track is a disaster waiting to happen for Nicaragua and
surrounding regions. Beta is forecast to take two days crossing central
america..and could easily landfall as a major cane.

[Weatherfreak14]

Man, going to bring flooding and horrible mudslides.

[fasterdisaster]

BTW, we are up to 4th on ACE for seasons.

[WeatherEmperor]

BTW, we are up to 4th on ACE for seasons.

what do you mean?

<RICKY>

[WxGuy1]

BTW, we are up to 4th on ACE for seasons.

what do you mean?

<RICKY>

The fastest way to learn just about anything -- Google it! I'll save you the time -- here's the 2nd link that pop ups when I google "ACE hurricanes" --> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... ation.html

[WeatherEmperor]

Cool. Thanks man

<RICKY>

[ChaserUK]

lets face it models MUST be having a problem with time of year, location etc. We need a few more runs before anyone starts to worry about where Beta will go. Then again, just saying BETA felt a bit weird!

[wxmann_91]

Someone tell the LBAR to knock it off.

LBAR maybe a useless model, but the UKMET is not (in fact, the UKMET was the most accurate model during Wilma). So why they (one of the worst models and one of the best models) agree on an offshore track I have no idea.

[tampaflwx]

as of the 18z models today, the GFNI shows the storm brushing across nicaragua/honduras and then moving north into the NW caribbean. The XTRP and CLP5 can probably be overlooked, but i do think the historical path that the LBAR takes with this storm does have some validity. Late season storms that originate in this region do seem to move north generally. also, the UKMET is certainly at the forefront of the models. I think the NHC is a bit unsure of which path to take... that of the GFDL/BAM/NOGAPS or the UKMET/LBAR combo. It's a tough call, and you can see they just took the average of these track forecasts for now until more of a consensus emerges.

[krysof]

Beta will break more records if it becomes a hurricane which it is forecasted to do so. It's even supposed to reach major hurricane status which will bring it closer to another record.

[fasterdisaster]

What intensity does the GFDL place Beta at?

[tampaflwx]

What intensity does the GFDL place Beta at?

at 12z today GFDL forecasted at 42 hours, right before landfall, intensification to 968.5 pressure, 103kt winds = about 120mph = Cat 3, major hurricane status... which would be devastating for nicaragua

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Beta can't be retired even if it hit as a cat5 then killed a hundred thousand people.

[timeflow]

There would have to be a Beta v.2 or something...

[thunderchief]

I cant beleive the NHC even mentioned the LBAR in its last discussion.

If that model gets a storm right its blind luck.

[fasterdisaster]

before the season, if someone said to you we would be on the letter B in october what would you have said?

What a relief! Great news!

[Ivanhater]

[HurricaneBill]

Beta can't be retired even if it hit as a cat5 then killed a hundred thousand people.

Actually, I was reading on Wikipedia that if a Greek lettered hurricane is destructive and worthy of retirement, it WOULD be removed from the list. The next season that had to use Greek letters would simply skip "Beta".

In other words, after Alpha, the next storm would be Gamma.