Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

southerngale · #61 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 7:49 pm

Fix those ensembles AFM and Jeff - send the cold down here, but with a side dish of snow to boot. 8-)

I woke up at the crack of dawn and walked outside to find frost all over my car and a thin layer of ice on a patio table. Also, a little decorative boat that still had rain water in it had a sheet of ice on top. I poked a hole in it - oh, what winter fun!
It reached 32° pretty early in the night and the lowest I saw was 30° here. I guess it was below freezing long enough to freeze some leftover rain.

Then the temperatures rose quickly today.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #62 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 9:30 pm

jschlitz wrote:
gboudx wrote:An overruning, wet pattern would be great. Sorely needed around here. The only way I'd want some real, cold air is if the precip is with it and we get some snow. Otherwise the East/SE can have it. I like my gas bill being manageable. Cold enough for me is highs in the 50's/lower 60's.

I'm totally with you on that A few days of some cool, overrunning rain would be perfect to help with this drought. That'd be enuf to get winter out of my system and I can cheer on Spring

About a good week or two of it. The carwashes would love it too. :roll:

Extremeweatherguy · #63 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 7:45 am

latest NWS forecast is still forecasting a cool week next week with some clouds and rain too! Here is the latest forecast for Spring, TX:

Today: Partly cloudy, with a high near 76. South wind between 10 and 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. South wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high around 76. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low near 49. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 62. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.

Sunday: Showers likely, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 61. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: Showers likely, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high around 57.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low near 40.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 59.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 58.

#64 Postby **jeff** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 8:26 am

A review of the 19th 00Z ensembles continues to show a favorable pattern to bring cold air into the US. Latest guidance shows building 500 Z anomalies across Greenland pushing westward into eastern Canada with a building ridge pushing further northward into Alaska than yesterday. A deep downstream trough is carved out over the western US with the polar jet well south of its climo position.

Cold air currently building across the source region may be allowed to be dumped southward given this pattern, although it appears a few pieces may break off and slide more eastward prior to the potential dumping of this air mass southward. GFS did hint at something yesterday evening but has since backed off with the intensity.

Shorter term:

ECMWF and GFS are at odds as to what will transpire this weekend into early next week.

GFS is wet Sunday into Monday with a good overrunning pattern sparked by a coastal trough and approaching upper level energy overrunning the cold dome at the surface. GFS shows a zonal westerly flow re-developing by Tuesday shutting off the rainfall while the ECMWF holds back a cut-off upper level low across the SW US keeping TX in a SW flow aloft and subject to multiple jet disturbances through much of the week. Pretty confident in a cool and wet period Sunday into Monday with highs likely remaining in the 50's, but beyond Monday I am not sure which model to buy into. Given the ongoing dryness and drought the GFS drier solution would seem reasonable, but the ECMWF has been very consistent in its solution.

#65 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 8:32 am

Well...the 00z ensembles were more aggressive with the cold further south. There is more ridging into Alaska...although it is the Gulf of AK rather than AK itself. Before there was a large low moving through this area, now it is a broad trof. I have a theory on this though. Either the model will pick the low back up moving thru thru the top of the ridge and flatten it out once again or the ridge will pronounce more over time as the model continues to lose it.

During the period, the 500mb flow will be straight over the poles so some very cold siberian air should be coming southward with the longwave trogh which seems to set up over the central US and slowly move eastward over the course of a few days.

On the sfc, I don't think the model is picking up the cold air...so it is tough to say what will go on there. With the flow coming over the top and tapping the Siberian air...I think it will be colder than what the GFS is putting on the charts.

Changes: The changes over time seem to be this with the GFS: MOre towards a ridge in the west/AK and the polar vortex over central Canada and a large trof over the central US

#66 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 8:34 am

Hey Jeff...we must have started our post at about the same time...hehe

Tyler · #67 Postby **Tyler** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:06 am

Thanks for the analysis this morning AFM and Jeff. Looks like some much needed rain could fall for Texas and Oklahoma next week.

#68 Postby **jeff** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 1:13 pm

Air Force Met wrote:Hey Jeff...we must have started our post at about the same time...hehe

indeed. Looking for a good soaking around here Sunday and Monday.

#69 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 2:22 pm

At least you 2 were consistent in your analysis.

Thanks guys. Hopefully some of the overrunning will make it up this far. A local OCM showed a map for Sunday/Monday that shows the overrunning coming up from our SE(i.e. GOM). Is that what you are seeing as well?

#70 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 3:48 pm

Have y'all seen the 12z ensemble runs? Looks like the drainpipe from the Arctic will be open for business later next week. 12z runs match what 0z runs suggested, especially from 228 hrs out.

Our pro mets can confirm but it seems like the 12z runs show a dumpage more south than east ... kinda like what Jeff and AFM suggest.

Link:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/ta ... 11912.html

#71 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 3:56 pm

For the map illiterate, what kind of temps would we(Tejas) be looking at, if those verified?

Tyler · #72 Postby **Tyler** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 4:03 pm

Interesting maps Portastorm. Would any Pro Mets like to explain what they mean?

#73 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 4:06 pm

gboudx wrote:For the map illiterate, what kind of temps would we(Tejas) be looking at, if those verified?

I honestly don't know ... would leave that answer to the pro mets. All I know is that the pattern itself shows a massive high near the pole and it directs the air almost due southward.

Extremeweatherguy · #74 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 4:40 pm

could get interesting. With everyone getting into the spring mood (even the plants) we could be in for a real shocker! Wouldn't be surprised if it got much colder than in early December (which hosted a high of 37 early in the month).

Tyler · #75 Postby **Tyler** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 5:58 pm

18z GFS Fantasy land shows quite an arctic outbreak in the long range. If only it wasn't the 18z GFS, and so far away! :cry:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Extremeweatherguy · #76 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 6:08 pm

may be the GFS will actually be right this time. lets hope!

#77 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 6:26 pm

I hope the 66h-84h actually happens. Maybe some drought relief.

Tyler · #78 Postby **Tyler** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:32 pm

Look at all this bitterly cold air building in Canada!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

Geeez! Thats some cold stuff. But look at it, its all locked up at the border. Once something opens the door, its going to get cold. You would think with such good blocking and a nice -NAO at 144, that things would look better in the better frames, but instead, everything is literally stuck at the US/Canadian border... Hmmm....

Extremeweatherguy · #79 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:57 pm

local news (channel 12) actually mentioned the threat of arctic air for the first week of Feb. tonight. Usually they do not mention such things so far out so this may be a sign that they too have a strong feeling about this one. Personally I feel we will see the coldest air of the season when this air dives southward (colder than the high of 37 we saw in early December)! :eek:

Tyler · #80 Postby **Tyler** » Fri Jan 20, 2006 12:11 am

I just don't see with such a strong -NAO as depicted by the GFS (if this verifies of course) that we don't see SOME cold air from this... I'm with you, I think February could be a shocker. My weather weenie opinion of course.

Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

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