SOUTH PACIFIC: Tropical Cyclone Jim (10P)

[Coredesat]

WTPS31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/310152ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 166.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 166.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.9S 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.8S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.2S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 25.8S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 167.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10P IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
WARNING HAS CHANGED, MOVING AWAY FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM
OVER AUSTRALIA BUILDING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A FASTER THAN EX-
PECTED FILLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RELAXATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW STEERING THE STORM, AND
SHOULD SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. UKMET, NOGAPS, AND GFDN
ALL SHOW STRONG ENOUGH RIDGING BUILDING IN TO TURN THE STORM BACK
EQUATORWARD. COMPARISON OF MODEL FIELDS WITH SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONFIRMS A FAIR MODEL ANALYSIS IN THESE DYNAMIC AIDS. HOWEVER,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW PAST 24 DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER
AIDS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO MIXED. HOWEVER, LESS THAN FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW AND NON IDEAL SST SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING,
ESPECIALLY ONCE THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 310000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.//

NNNN

[P.K.]

70kts

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 31/1412 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone JIM [965hPa] centre was located near 22.9 South
170.2 East at 311200 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT IR imagery
with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving
southeast at about 16 knots and expected to decelerate further.
Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 70
knots, decreasing to 60 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds
over 63 knots within 20 nautical miles of the centre, over 47 knots
within 50 nautical miles of the centre and over 33 knots within 120
nautical miles of the centre.

Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre pattern with a surrounding
LG shade yields a DT=4.5, PT=3.5 and MET =4.0. FT based on PT
yielding T3.5/4.5/W1.0/24hrs. Recent satellite images showed a brief
flareup of convection and a transient cold overcast as Jim cleared
the New Caledonia landmass. However, CIMMS indicates that the system
is running into increased environment shear and consequently
surrounding convection is on a downward trend again. Cooler SSTs
south of New Caledonia and shear are expected to weaken Jim. A mid
level subtropical ridge is building to the south of the cyclone
between 30-35S as indicated by WV imagery. This is expected to slow
down Jim significantly and eventually curve it northwest as a
weakened system.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 010000 UTC near 25.2S 172.0E mov SE at 13kt with 60kt
close to the centre
24hrs valid at 011200 UTC near 26.9S 172.9E mov SSE at 10kt with 50kt
close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 020000 UTC near 27.9S 172.7E mov SSW at 05kt with 40kt
close to the centre
48hrs valid at 021200 UTC near 27.3S 171.7E mov WNW at 05kt with 35kt
close to the centre

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will
be issued around 312000 UTC.

[P.K.]

55kts

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A8 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 31/2007 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone JIM [980hPa] centre was located near 23.9 South
170.8 East at 311800 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR imagery
with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving
southeast at about 15 knots and expected to decelerate further.
Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 55
knots, decreasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds
over 47 knots within 50 nautical miles of the centre and over 33
knots within 120 nautical miles of the centre.

Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern yields a DT=2.5, PT=2.5 and
MET =3.5. FT based on MET yielding T2.5/3.5/W1.5/24hrs. System has
sheared off significantly with LLCC interpolated to the northwest of
major convection. CIMMS also indicates system is running into
increased environment. Cooler SSTs around the area should further aid
in weakening the system. Mid level subtropical ridge ibuilding to the
south is is expected to slow down Jim significantly and eventually
curve it westwards as a weak system.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 010600 UTC near 26.5S 172.5E mov SSE at 14kt with 45kt
close to the centre
24hrs valid at 011800 UTC near 28.3S 173.2E mov SSE at 10kt with 35kt
close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 020600 UTC near 29.2S 173.3E mov S at 07kt with 30kt
close to the centre
48hrs valid at 021800 UTC near 29.5S 172.3E mov WSW at 05kt with 20kt
close to the centre

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will
be issued around 010200 UTC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The thing fall apart

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 25.7S 173.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 173.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.9S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 29.3S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 173.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS ITS
STEERING BEGINS TO TRANSITION FROM THE ELONGATED NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST TO A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA LONG ENOUGH TO BE STEERED
NORTHWEST BY THE WESTERN RIDGE. HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LACK OF
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE EN-
TRAINMENT OF COLD AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION OF
THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z.



THE END IS COMING!

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 01/0121 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone JIM [987hPa] centre was located near 26.4 South
173.1 East at 010000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT VIS imagery
with animation. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 20 knots and
expected to decelerate further. Maximum 10-minute average winds near
the centre estimated at about 45 knots, decreasing to 40 knots in the
next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 150 nautical
miles of the centre.

Dvorak analysis based on curved band, 0.45 on log10 yields a DT=2.5,
PT=2.5 and MET =3.0. FT based on DT yielding T2.5/3.0/W2.05/24hrs.
System continues to weaken. LLCC located just west of major
convection. CIMMS also indicates system is running into increased
environment. Cooler SSTs around the area should further aid in
weakening the system. Mid level subtropical ridge to the south is is
expected to slow down Jim significantly and eventually curve it
westwards as a weak system.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPCICAL
CYCLONE JIM.

[Coredesat]

Looks like North Island may get brushed by the remnants of Jim later today.

[P.K.]

Extra-tropical.

GALE WARNING 012
This affects ocean area/s: SUBTROPIC

AT 011200UTC

Low 988hPa, formerly cyclone Jim,near 30S 175E, moving southsoutheast
15kt.
Within 300 miles of low in sector north trough east to southwest:
Clockwise 40kt.
Area of gales moving with low.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 008.

[Coredesat]

WTPS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 30.6S 175.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 30.6S 175.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 34.0S 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 31.4S 175.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM NORTH
OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
PACIFIC. HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
ENTRAINMENT OF COLD AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION OVER
WATER BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z IS 12 FEET.//

NNNN