cat 4 or 5 question

[SouthFloridawx]

The September 1947 storm produced tides of 11 feet and SEVERE erosion along the entire southeast Florida coast due to it's large size, boca_chris. It also nearly stalled over the Bahamas as a 160MPH Category Five before hitting southeast Florida (Boca Raton) as a 155MPH Category Four.

11 ft? There is far different from the graphics that are shown above, hence my point.

The first 3 graphics are of a catagory 3 hurricane and last image is of a catagory five hurricane. You can see that at the top of the graphic where is says
Storm: Dirw: Cat3: 15 MPH
Storm: Dirw: Cat3: 12 MPH
Storm: Dirw: Cat3: 15 MPH
Storm: Dirw: Cat5: 15 MPH

WXman57 can you post the storm surge from a catagory 5 moving at 12 mph into central and southern palm beach county?
Thanks in advance.

[gatorcane]

The first 3 graphics are of a catagory 3 hurricane and last image is of a catagory five hurricane. You can see that at the top of the graphic where is says
Storm: Dirw: Cat3: 15 MPH
Storm: Dirw: Cat3: 12 MPH
Storm: Dirw: Cat3: 15 MPH
Storm: Dirw: Cat5: 15 MPH

WXman57 can you post the storm surge from a catagory 5 moving at 12 mph into central and southern palm beach county?

Thanks in advance.

Yes, good idea. The 1947 Hurricane was a CAT 4 not a CAT 5 that produced 11 ft tides above normal, keep that in mind.

[wxman57]

Here's PBI with a Cat 5 moving ashore to the WNW at 12 mph. Note that a Cat 4 would produce about 1-2 ft less surge. Now consider also that these SLOSH maps are for AVERAGE-sized hurricanes. A larger-than-average hurricane like an Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Allen, Gilbert, Opal, or Carla would produce a higher and more extensive storm surge.

[gatorcane]

Thanks Wxman, excellent graphics!

[windycity]

Thanks, seeing the surge maps really made me feel better. Now if i can avoid having a Wizard Of Oz experience, we will be in good shape.

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks, seeing the surge maps really made me feel better. Now if i can avoid having a Wizard Of Oz experience, we will be in good shape.

On the other hand you never know what kind of problems the wind is going to cause so please think it out carefully when you make your evac. or staying plans.

[f5]

can Wxman show a CAT 5 making landfall in the sameplace Katrina made landfall on the gulf coast while he is showing us slosh models?that would be very interesting

[gatorcane]

can Wxman show a CAT 5 making landfall in the sameplace Katrina made landfall on the gulf coast while he is showing us slosh models?that would be very interesting

What about Tampa Bay

[wxman57]

can Wxman show a CAT 5 making landfall in the sameplace Katrina made landfall on the gulf coast while he is showing us slosh models?that would be very interesting

I've done that - the SLOSH map shows about 25 ft of surge into the Bay St. Louis area with a Cat 5 - a bit less than what Katrina produced as a Cat 3. That's why I say that these SLOSH maps are for AVERAGE sized hurricanes. Larger hurricanes like Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Carla, Allen, Betsy, Opal would produce a storm surge significantly higher than would be indicated by the SLOSH model.

[terstorm1012]

I am wondering, would a Cat 4 or 5 wind put a shuttered CBS home in jeopardy?

CBS?--Concrete Brick Stucco? If that's what CBS is I suppose it would depend on which era it was built in.

Older construction from the 40s, 50s and 60s on average fared much better than newer construction from the building boom eras of the 70s and 80s during Andrew.

With the new building codes I suspect they're better but I've heard horror stories---one guy I know here in town moved up here from Vero Beach---they'd had enough of the hurricanes after 2004. They lost shingles on their home built in 1964 and that was about it...some of their neighbors with newer homes built "up to code" in the 90s and early 00's had extensive water damage because water got in between the concrete blocks and mold grew, making the home unliveable.

If and when I move to Miami, I'm not moving into anything built recently, thats for sure.

I don't quite understand why new homes would allow more water into interior walls than older homes. Same materials and construction methods, just stronger windloading. I would most definitely rather live in a home that was built today than in 1950, assuming it was built properly. The latest codes today are far more superior to any era previous in Florida, especially South Florida.

It was due to the builder/developer in that area. There's back and forth lawsuits pending.

[CHRISTY]

real cool strom surge maps!

[benny]

Assuming that your house is well-built, away from falling trees, with everything having shutters... there is no reason you can't stay. However I don't know if I would want to anyway. People that went through Wilma have no interest in even going through that type of storm. The problem is that you will likely get some house damage.. could be significant... and there is always a risk of failure. If it were really Cat 4 or 5 at landfall.. and you knew it was going to be... I would consider leaving. You just don't KNOW though and therein lies the whole issue.

[windycity]

I agree. Better to be safe than sorry. I have my hurricane plans, a different one for each cat. For a cat 1,2, or weak3, my house should be fine. For anything higher, or a questionable storm , we wont be staying in our home. We have a place to go that is still close but will be safer. It is new, and hopfully, bomb proof .

[Ixolib]

can Wxman show a CAT 5 making landfall in the sameplace Katrina made landfall on the gulf coast while he is showing us slosh models?that would be very interesting

I've done that - the SLOSH map shows about 25 ft of surge into the Bay St. Louis area with a Cat 5 - a bit less than what Katrina produced as a Cat 3. That's why I say that these SLOSH maps are for AVERAGE sized hurricanes. Larger hurricanes like Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Carla, Allen, Betsy, Opal would produce a storm surge significantly higher than would be indicated by the SLOSH model.

With the key word being "SIGNIFICANTLY"

And therein lies the problem with surge prediction, to include short-term forecasts just prior to landfall. Add to that the non-specific verbiage the NHC uses (for example: surge heights expected to be 17 to 22 feet above normal, and 28 feet locally), and the potential for real problems becomes evident.

The difference between 17 feet and 28 feet of water is H-U-G-E, whereas the difference between 117 mph and 128 mph in wind speed is nothing!!

All of which are reasons why I'm sticking to my point that surge prediction/forecasting/discussion/etc needs to be markedly improved, or at least communicated in a much more specific manner. Being "satisfied" with a spread of 11 feet - as indicated in the example above - is just not good enough.

[edenisleswx]

I think what you also need to consider are the effects on your area AFTER the hurricane. I know when Katrina hit, many folks that were many miles inland had power outages and gas shortages for a minimum of a week. It's a terrible inconvenience. Just comsider all of the pros and cons before you decide.

[f5]

[MiamiensisWx]

Huh, f5?

[f5]

CBS shutters?huh

[MiamiensisWx]

Oh, thanks!

[Cat5survivor]

What about a Cat 4 or 5 going over Patrick AFB in Cocoa Beach!!!