TC Monica #4: Fanni Beach (Darwin) Webcam available
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HurricaneHunter914
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AussieMark
- Category 5
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- Location: near Sydney, Australia
Island evacuated as Monica nears land
Evacuations have started on Goulburn Island as cyclone Monica moves towards the Northern Territory coast.
A cyclone warning is in place between Cape Wessel and the Daly River Mouth, including Darwin.
The Bureau of Meteorology expects Monica to hit land between Maningrida and Croker Island later today, and reach the Tiwi Islands and Darwin area on Tuesday.
The bureau says the cyclone is incredibly dangerous, with core wind gusts of 350 kilometres an hour.
Forecaster Andrew Tupper says the severity of winds in Darwin will depend on the path the cyclone takes today.
"It'll be hitting land on the western Arnhem coast sometime later today ... the amount of time it spends over land is obviously a critical issue," he said.
"If it spends a good time over land it'll start to weaken it but unfortunately because it's a category 5 it's still going to be a severe tropical cyclone."
Emergency preparations
Kate Vanderlaan, from the Northern Territory Police and Emergency Services, says cyclone shelters are being prepared.
She says people should start making decisions about where they will stay if the cyclone hits.
Darwin supermarket and petrol station owners say there has been strong demand for petrol, batteries, water and plastic bags.
"Reasonable line-ups but it's probably something that is similar on a Friday in a large service stations in Sydney and Melbourne," David Shimshack, who runs a service station in Darwin, said.
"There are line-ups and queues and that sort of thing but it's not over the top and people are patiently waiting and working their way through the queue."
Anzac service cancelled
The Darwin branch of the RSL has decided to cancel tomorrow's ANZAC Day dawn service on the Esplanade.
The RSL's Frank Geddes says he believes it is the first time the Darwin dawn service service has been called off.
He says cyclone Monica poses too great a danger to public safety.
"We didn't want to run the risk of people being injured and there's no shelter there whatsoever," he said.
"There'd be 1,200 chairs there ready to go hurling around if the wind got underneath them."
Evacuations have started on Goulburn Island as cyclone Monica moves towards the Northern Territory coast.
A cyclone warning is in place between Cape Wessel and the Daly River Mouth, including Darwin.
The Bureau of Meteorology expects Monica to hit land between Maningrida and Croker Island later today, and reach the Tiwi Islands and Darwin area on Tuesday.
The bureau says the cyclone is incredibly dangerous, with core wind gusts of 350 kilometres an hour.
Forecaster Andrew Tupper says the severity of winds in Darwin will depend on the path the cyclone takes today.
"It'll be hitting land on the western Arnhem coast sometime later today ... the amount of time it spends over land is obviously a critical issue," he said.
"If it spends a good time over land it'll start to weaken it but unfortunately because it's a category 5 it's still going to be a severe tropical cyclone."
Emergency preparations
Kate Vanderlaan, from the Northern Territory Police and Emergency Services, says cyclone shelters are being prepared.
She says people should start making decisions about where they will stay if the cyclone hits.
Darwin supermarket and petrol station owners say there has been strong demand for petrol, batteries, water and plastic bags.
"Reasonable line-ups but it's probably something that is similar on a Friday in a large service stations in Sydney and Melbourne," David Shimshack, who runs a service station in Darwin, said.
"There are line-ups and queues and that sort of thing but it's not over the top and people are patiently waiting and working their way through the queue."
Anzac service cancelled
The Darwin branch of the RSL has decided to cancel tomorrow's ANZAC Day dawn service on the Esplanade.
The RSL's Frank Geddes says he believes it is the first time the Darwin dawn service service has been called off.
He says cyclone Monica poses too great a danger to public safety.
"We didn't want to run the risk of people being injured and there's no shelter there whatsoever," he said.
"There'd be 1,200 chairs there ready to go hurling around if the wind got underneath them."
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AussieMark
- Category 5
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- Location: near Sydney, Australia
Cyclone stops Darwin Anzac march
Cyclone Monica has forced the cancellation of Darwin's Anzac Day march and services, with gale force winds tipped to hit at dawn.
The maximum strength, category five cyclone is about 550 kilometres east, north-east of Darwin and should reach Arnhem Land's west coast later today.
The edge of Monica, which has winds of up to 350kmh at its core, is expected to reach Darwin and the Tiwi Islands by dawn tomorrow.
The cyclone has prompted the Darwin RSL to announce tomorrow's Anzac Day dawn service and march would be cancelled.
Darwin RSL manager Mussy Shaw today said the decision was made to protect both marchers and military equipment.
"We made the decision because we didn't want to damage some of the old war equipment we use in the march and obviously we need to protect the people as well," he said.
Mr Shaw said the decision was not made lightly.
"It's Australia's biggest day and we have to cancel it, so people are very upset," Mr Shaw said.
Cyclone Monica is moving in a north-westerly direction at 15kmh and Darwin residents have been urged to secure their homes and stock up on essential supplies.
Monica was as fierce as any cyclone seen in Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology's Darwin supervising meteorologist Andrew Tupper said.
"She's a category five cyclone - very intense, as intense as we've seen in Australia," he said.
"It's sitting off the Arnhem coast heading westwards and, because of the shape of the coast, we're expecting it to make landfall later today.
"Then it should weaken. but it will still be a tropical cyclone as it approaches Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.
"It's a very large, well organised system, and a cyclone that size doesn't go to nothing in a day."
Monica would prove to be a serious threat even if it weakened, Mr Tupper said.
"Our most optimistic forecast is it will be a category three at Darwin. We're preparing for a category three and a category five would be the most pessimistic.
"A category three cyclone is still a very serious cyclone - we're tracking it very carefully and hoping it will change course.
"We're expecting gales will affect Darwin. There's almost no way around that.
"The edge will hit about dawn tomorrow and the core will approach later in the day.
"Even if the track changes, Darwin will still receive a glancing blow."
Cyclone Monica has forced the cancellation of Darwin's Anzac Day march and services, with gale force winds tipped to hit at dawn.
The maximum strength, category five cyclone is about 550 kilometres east, north-east of Darwin and should reach Arnhem Land's west coast later today.
The edge of Monica, which has winds of up to 350kmh at its core, is expected to reach Darwin and the Tiwi Islands by dawn tomorrow.
The cyclone has prompted the Darwin RSL to announce tomorrow's Anzac Day dawn service and march would be cancelled.
Darwin RSL manager Mussy Shaw today said the decision was made to protect both marchers and military equipment.
"We made the decision because we didn't want to damage some of the old war equipment we use in the march and obviously we need to protect the people as well," he said.
Mr Shaw said the decision was not made lightly.
"It's Australia's biggest day and we have to cancel it, so people are very upset," Mr Shaw said.
Cyclone Monica is moving in a north-westerly direction at 15kmh and Darwin residents have been urged to secure their homes and stock up on essential supplies.
Monica was as fierce as any cyclone seen in Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology's Darwin supervising meteorologist Andrew Tupper said.
"She's a category five cyclone - very intense, as intense as we've seen in Australia," he said.
"It's sitting off the Arnhem coast heading westwards and, because of the shape of the coast, we're expecting it to make landfall later today.
"Then it should weaken. but it will still be a tropical cyclone as it approaches Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.
"It's a very large, well organised system, and a cyclone that size doesn't go to nothing in a day."
Monica would prove to be a serious threat even if it weakened, Mr Tupper said.
"Our most optimistic forecast is it will be a category three at Darwin. We're preparing for a category three and a category five would be the most pessimistic.
"A category three cyclone is still a very serious cyclone - we're tracking it very carefully and hoping it will change course.
"We're expecting gales will affect Darwin. There's almost no way around that.
"The edge will hit about dawn tomorrow and the core will approach later in the day.
"Even if the track changes, Darwin will still receive a glancing blow."
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stormtruth
- Category 2
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Rod Hagen
- Tropical Storm
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- Location: Lives in Melbourne, works in N Queensland
From the latest ABC news update. http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/20 ... 622588.htm
Last Update: Monday, April 24, 2006. 2:44pm (AEST)
Fears cyclone Monica may be Australia's 'most severe' storm
Small clusters of people remain on Northern Territory islands due to be hit by the most intense cyclone Australia's ever seen.
Cyclone Monica is a category 5 system and is expected to hit near the Coburg Peninsula later today.
Weather bureau spokesman Mike Bergin says Monica could be the most severe tropical cyclone seen anywhere along the Australian coastline.
Mr Bergin says that judgment is based on satellite images because there has been no "ground truth" yet.
"Whether or not the wind gusts are at 300 kilometres, or exactly what they are, is going to be difficult to assess," he said.
"But certainly we are in the right ball-park, which is an extremely destructive and a very dangerous system."
Police have evacuated most of nearby Goulburn Island but store manager Ian McDowell has chosen to stay.
He does not know if the store is built to withstand Monica's force.
"We've got a couple of areas we can go and hide, if the worst comes to worst we can go and stand in the cool room," he said.
Ranger Peter Fitzgerald is one of a tiny group of people staying at Black Point on the Coburg Peninsula.
He says it is now a waiting game.
"I think we'll be okay - just don't do anything silly that's the main thing," he said.
Cyclone Monica is predicted to reach Darwin tomorrow.
______________
Cheers
Rod
Last Update: Monday, April 24, 2006. 2:44pm (AEST)
Fears cyclone Monica may be Australia's 'most severe' storm
Small clusters of people remain on Northern Territory islands due to be hit by the most intense cyclone Australia's ever seen.
Cyclone Monica is a category 5 system and is expected to hit near the Coburg Peninsula later today.
Weather bureau spokesman Mike Bergin says Monica could be the most severe tropical cyclone seen anywhere along the Australian coastline.
Mr Bergin says that judgment is based on satellite images because there has been no "ground truth" yet.
"Whether or not the wind gusts are at 300 kilometres, or exactly what they are, is going to be difficult to assess," he said.
"But certainly we are in the right ball-park, which is an extremely destructive and a very dangerous system."
Police have evacuated most of nearby Goulburn Island but store manager Ian McDowell has chosen to stay.
He does not know if the store is built to withstand Monica's force.
"We've got a couple of areas we can go and hide, if the worst comes to worst we can go and stand in the cool room," he said.
Ranger Peter Fitzgerald is one of a tiny group of people staying at Black Point on the Coburg Peninsula.
He says it is now a waiting game.
"I think we'll be okay - just don't do anything silly that's the main thing," he said.
Cyclone Monica is predicted to reach Darwin tomorrow.
______________
Cheers
Rod
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milankovitch
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 243
- Age: 40
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2004 11:30 pm
- Location: Menands, NY; SUNY Albany
- Contact:
Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:It may become a little ragged again as she goes through the ERC.
I really don't think its going through an EWRC. If it was you could see it on MIMIC. Here is a link to Wilma's MIMIC. Watch for the transition from the pinhole eye to a medium sized eye. There is first a moat then the outer eye takes over. I don't even see a moat on Monica's MIMIC; all I see is a VERY well defined eyewall. There is a strong band to the south but I don't think that is the begining of and EWRC. The south band looked like the beginings of a moat but it was gone by the end of the loop. And it's only 90 min old.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... Wilma1.gif
Wilma
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t48hrs.gif
Monica
Image linked by CM due to size of pic for dialup users
Sorry I've become spoiled by a college LAN forgot about the dial-up users
Last edited by milankovitch on Mon Apr 24, 2006 12:44 am, edited 4 times in total.
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SouthFloridawx
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SouthFloridawx
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
I went back to 1980 in the record of JTWC...Last year had two cat5 for the South Pacific Percy,Olaf where both 140 and 145 knot cat5s. But we have to go back to 2002 to Zoe to find a system with the same winds. The Indian went all the way back to 1980 with no systems any where near as strong.
So yes this is rare. Also Larry was 115 knots instead of there 100 knots they put it at.
So yes this is rare. Also Larry was 115 knots instead of there 100 knots they put it at.
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wxmann_91
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Thankfully the landfall area is mostly rural except for one Aboriginal community of Maningrida. Unfortunately that town will be on the strongest side of the storm (left in this case) and this would be like a storm slamming the Alabama-Mississippi border with the surge funneling thru Mobile Bay. This will likely be a very serious situation and I'm hoping the town has evacuated - and very far inland too - like southern Louisiana the area is swampland and surge will impact areas far inland. These areas may not have much left come tomorrow morning.
Here's a Map of the area
EDIT: Anybody know the population of that area?
Here's a Map of the area
EDIT: Anybody know the population of that area?
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Squeako da Magnifico
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 64
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [3:30 pm WST] Monday 24 April 2006
A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between
ELCHO ISLAND and PORT KEATS, including DARWIN, the TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG
PENINSULA and JABIRU.
The CYCLONE WARNING between ELCHO ISLAND and CAPE WESSEL has been cancelled.
A CYCLONE WATCH is now current between DALY RIVER MOUTH and KALUMBURU in Western
Australia.
At 4 pm CST [2:30 pm WST] SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located
about 135 kilometres west northwest of ELCHO ISLAND, 45 kilometres north
northeast of MANINGRIDA and 390 kilometres east northeast of DARWIN, moving west
southwest at 16 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is expected to continue to move
west southwest, crossing the coast later today. The cyclone is then expected to
weaken slightly as it passes over the base of the COBOURG PENINSULA tonight, but
will still be a SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE as it moves across the northwest
DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLANDS area during Tuesday.
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 350
kilometres per hour is expected begin affecting the coast between MANINGRIDA and
GOULBURN ISLAND in the next few hours, and approach the DARWIN-DALY and TIWI
ISLAND area on Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 220 kilometres per hour.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced on the far north coast between MILINGIMBI and MANINGRIDA, and should
progress further west along the north coast and nearby islands to the COBOURG
PENINSULA and OENPELLI by tonight, approaching the northwest DARWIN-DALY and
TIWI ISLANDS area during Tuesday morning.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the north of the Top End coast, and will extend westward ahead of the cyclone,
approaching the northwest DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLANDS area from early Tuesday
morning. GALES may extend further west to KALUMBURU in Western Australia during
Wednesday.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
MILINGIMBI and GOULBURN ISLAND tonight.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in across the remainder of the northern Top End tonight and
tomorrow.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 4 pm CST [2:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 11.7 degrees South 134.4 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 16 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 350 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 915 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between ELCHO ISLAND and PORT KEATS,
including DARWIN, TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG PENINSULA and JABIRU.
A CYCLONE WATCH now extends southwest to KALUMBURU in Western Australia.
The next advice will be issued at 8 pm CST [6:30 pm WST].
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [3:30 pm WST] Monday 24 April 2006
A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between
ELCHO ISLAND and PORT KEATS, including DARWIN, the TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG
PENINSULA and JABIRU.
The CYCLONE WARNING between ELCHO ISLAND and CAPE WESSEL has been cancelled.
A CYCLONE WATCH is now current between DALY RIVER MOUTH and KALUMBURU in Western
Australia.
At 4 pm CST [2:30 pm WST] SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located
about 135 kilometres west northwest of ELCHO ISLAND, 45 kilometres north
northeast of MANINGRIDA and 390 kilometres east northeast of DARWIN, moving west
southwest at 16 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is expected to continue to move
west southwest, crossing the coast later today. The cyclone is then expected to
weaken slightly as it passes over the base of the COBOURG PENINSULA tonight, but
will still be a SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE as it moves across the northwest
DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLANDS area during Tuesday.
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 350
kilometres per hour is expected begin affecting the coast between MANINGRIDA and
GOULBURN ISLAND in the next few hours, and approach the DARWIN-DALY and TIWI
ISLAND area on Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 220 kilometres per hour.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced on the far north coast between MILINGIMBI and MANINGRIDA, and should
progress further west along the north coast and nearby islands to the COBOURG
PENINSULA and OENPELLI by tonight, approaching the northwest DARWIN-DALY and
TIWI ISLANDS area during Tuesday morning.
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the north of the Top End coast, and will extend westward ahead of the cyclone,
approaching the northwest DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLANDS area from early Tuesday
morning. GALES may extend further west to KALUMBURU in Western Australia during
Wednesday.
DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between
MILINGIMBI and GOULBURN ISLAND tonight.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in across the remainder of the northern Top End tonight and
tomorrow.
Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 4 pm CST [2:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 11.7 degrees South 134.4 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 16 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 350 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 915 hectoPascals
REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current between ELCHO ISLAND and PORT KEATS,
including DARWIN, TIWI ISLANDS, COBOURG PENINSULA and JABIRU.
A CYCLONE WATCH now extends southwest to KALUMBURU in Western Australia.
The next advice will be issued at 8 pm CST [6:30 pm WST].
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Coredesat
The hard eyewall is going into Maningrida right now.
Landfall will be framed by Maningrida to Rolling Bay.
NRL listed 155 knots
That's a direct hit on Maningrida with the hardest part of the 155 knot eyewall (disaster)
This is more south and should lessen Darwin impact significantly.
Landfall will be framed by Maningrida to Rolling Bay.
NRL listed 155 knots
That's a direct hit on Maningrida with the hardest part of the 155 knot eyewall (disaster)
This is more south and should lessen Darwin impact significantly.
Last edited by Sanibel on Mon Apr 24, 2006 2:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
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- Contact:
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 0730 UTC 24 APRIL 2006
PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA
SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica estimated within 15 nautical miles of
11.7 S 134.4 E moving WESTSOUTHWEST at 8 knots. Central pressure 915 hPa.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Sustained winds to 135 knots near centre.
Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.
Winds above 48 knots within 35 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with rough to very rough
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
1800 UTC 24 Apr: centre within 40 nautical miles of 12.0 S 132.6 E.
935 hPa. Winds to 110 knots near centre.
0600 UTC 25 Apr: centre within 75 nautical miles of 12.6 S 131.0 E.
950 hPa. Winds to 90 knots near centre.
REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 0730 UTC 24 APRIL 2006
PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,
and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA
SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica estimated within 15 nautical miles of
11.7 S 134.4 E moving WESTSOUTHWEST at 8 knots. Central pressure 915 hPa.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Sustained winds to 135 knots near centre.
Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.
Winds above 48 knots within 35 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with rough to very rough
seas and moderate to heavy swell.
1800 UTC 24 Apr: centre within 40 nautical miles of 12.0 S 132.6 E.
935 hPa. Winds to 110 knots near centre.
0600 UTC 25 Apr: centre within 75 nautical miles of 12.6 S 131.0 E.
950 hPa. Winds to 90 knots near centre.
REMARKS
Ships in the general area please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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