Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #9

#61 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:54 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Are you talking about 90L because it looks plenty tropical to me.

90L looks like it's attached to a cold front. It's energy source at present isn't purely from the release of latent heat of condensation.

#62 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:11 am

wxman57 wrote:You can't find the center on a system this weak using IR imagery. It could be hundredxs of miles from that red blob and you'd never be able to tell at night with just satellite.

I'll be heading in to the office shortly. Will post some GARP images of high-res visible with surface obs if/when I get a chance. I ran GARP from home a few minutes ago and can see that if there's any center, it's north of 20N just south of the western tip of Cuba. The buoy near 20N/85W shifted to a SW or W wind a few hours ago and a ship near the western tip of Cuba is reporting an east wind of 35 kts with a pressure of 1000.4 mb. Now, as a marine meteorologist for many years, I know that ships at sea should rarely be trusted to keep their barometers calibrated or to measure the wind correctly. In many cases, they forget to subtract the forward speed of the ship from the wind speed. So I don't think this disturbance is anywhere near a TS. But there are signs that it has a broad center of circulation, possibly near 20.5 or 21N and 85W.

I have to say I am very surprised to see it where it is. I thought it would form more on the east side where dynamics were best.

If you look at the latest quickscat...and compare with the latest buoy data...you can see how quickly the center jumped off to the NNE...from about 18/86 to about 20/85. I guess it will bounce around a while before it finally lands...my guess closer to the convection...but...I am surprised it didn't go after the mid level vorticity...perhaps it will this time (if it knows what is good for it...).

CHRISTY · #63 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:27 am

i agree with your thinking air force met.....i think we will know much more when recon gets in there this afternoon.

#64 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:29 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING.

CHRISTY · #65 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:33 am

HURAKAN wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING.

yea i just noticed that a huge flare to the north.the NHC is not sure if the LLC has drifted north or if has reformed to the west.

CHRISTY · #66 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:35 am

seems to me that the LLC has drifted north under the huge ball of convection.what u guys think?

Thunder44 · #67 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:38 am

First visible images seem to show the low-level center might be partialy exposed just to the west of the big blob of convection over the Yucatan Channel. Not sure about this yet, still very dark.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

#68 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:49 am

I'm at work now. The weak LLC looks to be west of the "blob" of convection near 20.8N/85.1W. Surface obs around that area are in the 5-10 kt range. The only significant winds are to the east in the large area of thunderstorms where winds are in the 20 kt range.

#69 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:49 am

If a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement is issued it will be posted at this thread so stay tuned during the morning hours here.

#70 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:50 am

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/SCA ... 10_-90.gif
Latest Quik scat Looks like it still down at 18N.

rockyman · #71 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:52 am

We have 01 NONAME on NRL

#72 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:55 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm at work now. The weak LLC looks to be west of the "blob" of convection near 20.8N/85.1W. Surface obs around that area are in the 5-10 kt range. The only significant winds are to the east in the large area of thunderstorms where winds are in the 20 kt range.

I was just about to post the same thing. Maybe even north of 21 and near 86? Have to wait until loops.

01L NONAME on NRL site!

#73 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:55 am

rockyman wrote:We have 01 NONAME on NRL

Beat me to it...caught me looking at a sat pic instead of posting my info!

rockyman · #74 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:56 am

Score one for me...I just opened my eyes and happened to already be on the NRL site

#75 Postby **rjgator** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:57 am

What does it mean when the NRL site changes frim INvest to noname

#76 Postby **wjs3** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:59 am

rjgator:

It means the system has been upgraded to a Tropical Depression when it chages to noname on the NRL.

WJS3

#77 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:00 am

Looking at the first vis loop form GHCC (don't waste my time with SSD for vis loops) it appears we have a weak LLC...most likely a vort center in the channel being rotated out of a larger circulation. Hard to tell with a 15 minute loop. Most likley not going to be the dominate circulation...it appears to be drifting west...so it is probably being kicked out. Need a longer loop to tell for sure.

Kennethb · #78 Postby **Kennethb** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:03 am

Could be more than one center. Being a pretty vigorous frontal trough, pretty far south for this time of year, maybe one center will move up the trough and leave some energy behind.

CHRISTY · #79 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:04 am

Air Force Met wrote:Looking at the first vis loop form GHCC (don't waste my time with SSD for vis loops) it appears we have a weak LLC...most likely a vort center in the channel being rotated out of a larger circulation. Hard to tell with a 15 minute loop. Most likley not going to be the dominate circulation...it appears to be drifting west...so it is probably being kicked out. Need a longer loop to tell for sure.

so ur saying the one under the convection will end up taking over...if there is one there?

#80 Postby **rjgator** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:07 am

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

Looks like you can see the circulation on the cuban radar

Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #9

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