Update: Fat lady has yet to sing--Chris lives!

[canegrl04]

Time to bid adeui to Chris and be on the watch for Debbie .Will we ever see a hurricane this season

[Scorpion]

In 1998 and 99 the first hurricane formed in mid-late August.

[Jim Hughes]

Could one of the official METs explain how come this same type of analysis is occurring again this year, like last year. I am referring to the language used in the official NHC forecast. They tend to always hint towards the data suggesting something else but then they "always" leave the intensity level at a higher level anyway.

How can we ever look back over the data for proper research when it seems like they might be fudging the numbers here ? If Chris is a TD then make it one and if it strengthens again make it a TS. I recall this with Irene last year also.

[Frank2]

Yes, I understand what you all mean, but, my sister is scheduled to have major cancer surgery in Miami on Tuesday morning, and, an indefinite delay due to a hurricane emergency (similar to what happened last year after Hurricane Wilma, when many appointments were cancelled indefinetly) could be very harmful.

On 8/22/92, two days before Hurricane Andrew, one of the HRD research meteorologists (and someone who I worked for, from my very first day with NOAA), said that Andrew was moving northwestward, away from South Florida, and, my knee-jerk reaction (emphasis on jerk) was, "Aww, too bad - I just wanted some fun!"

Well, I got my dose of fun on 8/24/92 - my roof blew off, and, in the months to follow, I encountered financial problems, health problems, and, the "fun" that comes with being a "hurricane refugee" in a strange town.

Oh, yes - I never did ask for such "fun", ever again.

Instead, I turned my love for weather to thunderstorms - not the kind that produce F5's, but, just the garden variety, with lots of noise and good cloud formations, but, even then, there's a dark side, because Florida has such a high fatality rate from lightning.

Some might ask "Then why stay around this site?", well, to share my knowledge of the business itself (not so much the science of it), to hopefully difuse a misunderstanding or two that could arise from incorrect information, and, out of a love of weather in general.

It was always my dream to work in meteorology, and, despite not finishing school, God gave me that opportunity for over 10 years (I left the business after my parents were gone, in order to have a more stable lifestyle - shift work is difficult for anyone in that sense), and, for that I'm very greatful, and, I'll always love weather - even a well formed hurricane - but, at a time when the Government is still unsure of the body count in New Orleans (per a CNN story just two days ago), the last thing we should desire is another disaster - which would compound every other problem that is happening at this time - both natural and man-made.

Frank

[FloridaDiver]

I'll say this - many here in South Florida are very thankful this morning, for the unexpected turn of events...

Frank

“I’ll by that that for a dollar….”

Seriously, you are most correct, I just had the last of the Wilma induced damage to my home repaired last week, would be nice if I was able to keep my new tile for a few weeks at least.

Perhaps Mother Nature gave us Chris as a “fire drill” so to speak, to make sure those who still have yet to do the slightest bit of hurricane preparedness to wake up and take notice?

Will Debbie be as forgiving?

[kenl01]

Will Debbie be as forgiving?

I hope so !

[Frank2]

Will Debbie be as forgiving?

FloridaDiver wrote that, not I...

Frank

[stormtruth]

Is Chris still 100% nude? Maybe some thicker clouds on the Southeast side http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Maybe Chris is putting on a new outfit.

That was pretty shocking to see Chris leave his entire wardrobe behind.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is Chris still 100% nude? Maybe some thicker clouds on the Southeast side http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Maybe Chris is putting on a new outfit.

That was pretty shocking to see Chris leave his entire wardrobe behind.

those clouds/convection have been getting closer and closer to the center all morning.

[Portastorm]

Is Chris still 100% nude? Maybe some thicker clouds on the Southeast side http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Maybe Chris is putting on a new outfit.

That was pretty shocking to see Chris leave his entire wardrobe behind.

those clouds/convection have been getting closer and closer to the center all morning.

Ah Extreme, c'mon and give it up! We're not talking about Michael Meyers and Halloween here ... Chris is toast.

(but I admire your persistence)

[Extremeweatherguy]

It would be interesting to see if Chris could pull in some of the ULL's moisture just off to his west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

[Damar91]

Is Chris still 100% nude? Maybe some thicker clouds on the Southeast side http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Maybe Chris is putting on a new outfit.

That was pretty shocking to see Chris leave his entire wardrobe behind.

those clouds/convection have been getting closer and closer to the center all morning.

Ah Extreme, c'mon and give it up! We're not talking about Michael Meyers and Halloween here ... Chris is toast.

(but I admire your persistence)

I still don't hear fat lady! All kidding aside, he defintely looks like he is headed more on a more NW course. Also little by little more moisture seems to be wrapping up. Maybe Chris just didn't like his old wardrobe. Hopefully his new one will be just as bad!

[curtadams]

What's the lag time on the cimss wind report? It still shows strong LL convergence and UL divergence, which implies Chris is still a going concern, catastropic disorganization notwithstanding.

[HouTXmetro]

Is Chris still 100% nude? Maybe some thicker clouds on the Southeast side http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Maybe Chris is putting on a new outfit.

That was pretty shocking to see Chris leave his entire wardrobe behind.

those clouds/convection have been getting closer and closer to the center all morning.

Ah Extreme, c'mon and give it up! We're not talking about Michael Meyers and Halloween here ... Chris is toast.


(but I admire your persistence)

We are only "observing" No harm in that. With that said it has a long way to go but "moisture" is trying to wrap on the Eastern side. May be a sign THe Artist formerly known as Chris will gain some convection later.

[Derek Ortt]

the advisory information is NEVER used for research. Only the best track is used, as that is the real wind speeds. Iperational values can have very large errors

[southerngale]

A little Sergio Mendes for EWG.

I'm never gonna let you go
I'm gonna hold you in my arms forever



And just for you...on the latest IR4, there are a few dots of convection closer to the center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

[HomesteadHoney]

In 1998 and 99 the first hurricane formed in mid-late August.

Don't forget 1992. AAAA for Andrew hit on August 24

[HouTXmetro]

A little Sergio Mendes for EWG.

I'm never gonna let you go
I'm gonna hold you in my arms forever



And just for you...on the latest IR4, there are a few dots of convection closer to the center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Indeed it is

[jhamps10]

looks like he could be coming out of cardiac arrest. I've noticed the dots of covection right before your post gale

[Damar91]

A little Sergio Mendes for EWG.

I'm never gonna let you go
I'm gonna hold you in my arms forever



And just for you...on the latest IR4, there are a few dots of convection closer to the center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Go Chris! You can do it! Sorry, you got to feel bad for him, that's all. Being stripped naked right in the middle of the ocean and all.