Tropical Depression Hector in EPAC

[Cyclenall]

Hurricane Hector is now 80 knots with a pressure of 975 mb. This is from the NRL page. The eye is very small using AVN images and gaining strength. Hector has a better chance at becoming a category 2 hurricane now.

Finally Hector got his act together and starting moving forward. Last night at 3:00 am EST he was the same but stronger at 60 knots. Then, it appears he made another try at wrapping that deep convection around and was successful at doing so but then the convection weakened in the band but it doesn't really matter because that inner core is set. Now deep convection is pretty much around the center that's looking like a eye is going to poke out shortly...if not already. The organization has improved greatly and looks better then ever.

Hurricane Hector went through some fast strengthening this morning jumping up another 15 knots in 6 hours. I thought this would happen since Hector was doing nothing and then got his act together quickly enough. I'd say he has a fair chance at becoming a CAT2 hurricane before weakening. I hope he goes on a more west track so that he doesn't weakening as quickly. Too bad shear will be getting higher by 96 hours plus the colder water.

New % chance that Hurricane Hector will become a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Category 2 Hurricane: 70% (much higher then before (up 50%))
Category 3 Hurricane: 15%
Category 4 Hurricane: 7%
Category 5 Hurricane: Lower then 0.8%

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 172036
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
200 PM PDT THU AUG 17 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A INTENSIFYING
CYCLONE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE HAVING FORMED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND UW-CIMSS
ADT ARE UNANIMOUSLY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 KT. ADDITIONALLY...AN AMSU
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM AN OVERPASS AROUND 1400 UTC WAS 76 KT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT THE HIGH END OF THIS RANGE GIVEN THE
RECENT APPEARANCE OF AN EYE AND THE OVERALL IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING IS A LITTLE MUDDIED BY THE CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT TREND. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS
MUCH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WITH THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KT...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE 83 KT...AND THE
GFDL 91 KT. HOWEVER...IN THE SHORT-TERM...THERE ARE SEEMINGLY NO
SIGNIFICANT FEATURES WHICH MIGHT ARREST THE CURRENT UPWARD TREND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND LARGE
AREA OF DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF HECTOR.
HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF VERTICAL SHEAR...IT IS ASSUMED THE
CYCLONE WILL BE UNAFFECTED BY THIS DRY AIR. INDEED...SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SHEAR AXIS WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT IS OBLITERATED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM HECTOR. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SPECTRUM AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL...SHOWING HECTOR
BECOMING A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND
DAY 2...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD AS
HECTOR MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS... ULTIMATELY
RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/11. HECTOR CONTINUES TO MOVE
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH BUT IS OTHERWISE
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.0N 122.1W 80 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.4N 123.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.2N 125.7W 90 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.0N 127.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 17.9N 129.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 132.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 21.0N 135.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 22/1800Z 22.5N 138.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB

[SkeetoBite]

[cycloneye]

SkeetoBite,the forecast is for Hector to be a cat 2 in 24 hours but you have the 1 number there.

Nevermind my friend,you did the correction.

[SkeetoBite]

Nevermind my friend,you did the correction.

It's automated... you may need to "Shift key + refresh" to see the updated images.

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Current - 15.0/122.1 - 975mb - 90mph
12 hrs - 15.3/123.9 - 973mb - 100mph
24 hrs - 16.0/126.0 - 966mb - 110mph
36 hrs - 17.1/127.6 - 970mb - 100mph
48 hrs - 18.1/129.2 - 980mb - 80mph
60 hrs - 18.9/131.3 - 987mb - 70mph
72 hrs - 19.8/133.0 - 995mb - 50mph
96 hrs - 21.5/136.3 - 1004mb - 30mph - Dissipating
120 hrs - Dissipated

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 180255
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
800 PM PDT THU AUG 17 2006

THE EYE OF HECTOR BECAME CLOUD FILLED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...THE EYE HAS
BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THIS
TIME... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 80 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT ARE BETWEEN 77 AND 85 KT...FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR SHOULD BE REACHING ITS
PEAK INTENSITY SOON. THE GFDL MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
STRENGTHENING THE HURRICANE TO ABOVE 90 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHILE
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS MODELS PEAK HECTOR AT 82 AND 81 KT
RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF WHY HECTOR
SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN FURTHER...THE FORECAST BRINGS THE INTENSITY
TO 90 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GFDL AND
SHIPS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...HECTOR WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPART A MORE RAPID WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 285/11. HECTOR CONTINUES
TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THE HURRICANE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES
A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE
LEFT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE
TO THE CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.4N 123.2W 80 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.9N 124.8W 90 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 126.7W 85 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.6N 128.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.4N 130.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 132.8W 50 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 21.5N 135.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 22.5N 138.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[Jim Cantore]

Looking at the WV, looks like Hector is about to eat Dry Air

[Cyclenall]

Looking at the WV, looks like Hector is about to eat Dry Air

Yes, dry air is not good. It looks like the dry air is really effecting him currently. Hopefully he can mix it out soon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nice deep cdo around the clearing out eye...80 to 85 knots right now. Increasing to 90 by 6 to 12 hours. Then likely weaking then afternoon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/avn.jpg

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KMIA 180659
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE HECTOR (EP092006) ON 20060818 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060818 0600 060818 1800 060819 0600 060819 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 123.9W 16.3N 126.1W 16.9N 128.0W 17.6N 129.7W
BAMM 15.7N 123.9W 16.6N 126.3W 17.6N 128.4W 18.5N 130.4W
LBAR 15.7N 123.9W 16.7N 126.0W 18.0N 128.3W 19.4N 130.5W
SHIP 90KTS 87KTS 78KTS 67KTS
DSHP 90KTS 87KTS 78KTS 67KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060820 0600 060821 0600 060822 0600 060823 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.4N 131.1W 19.8N 133.3W 20.4N 134.1W 20.6N 134.9W
BAMM 19.4N 132.2W 20.8N 134.7W 21.5N 136.2W 22.7N 137.5W
LBAR 20.7N 132.1W 24.2N 133.9W 29.1N 133.8W 37.4N 131.0W
SHIP 59KTS 43KTS 26KTS 0KTS
DSHP 59KTS 43KTS 26KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.7N LONCUR = 123.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 121.6W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 119.3W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 120NM

[Cyclenall]

Hurricane Hector is now at 90 knots with a pressure of 970 mb. Wow, that was not expected by me. I thought they would keep the strength at 80 knots. I can't wait to read what the NHC thinks about Hector. The convection overall isn't very strong expect near the center and dry air is picking at him. The eye isn't very "stable" either. That means it doesn't stay the same for a good period of time. It gets filled from time to time and does odd things.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats a soild ring of red around the eye...The eye has high clouds in it...This is very likely a 90 to 95 knot hurricane. If it clears out some theres a chance it may become a major by 11am before it hits the colder waters.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/avn.jpg

[clfenwi]

HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006

TRMM AND AQUA MICROWAVE PASSES FROM AROUND 1000 UTC SHOW THAT THE
EYEWALL OF HECTOR HAS BECOME OPEN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS ALSO BECOME DEGRADED WITH
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKING A LITTLE ASYMMETRIC. T-NUMBERS FROM
SAB/TAFB HAVE DROPPED A LITTLE AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
85 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD.
THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE PASSING THE 26.5C ISOTHERM WHICH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING. IN ADDITION VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WOULD
ALSO HELP WEAKEN THE HURRICANE. SHIPS WEAKENS HECTOR RATHER
QUICKLY IN THE SHORT-TERM COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO... WHICH MAY BE
A BIT TOO FAST DUE TO DIAGNOSED SHEAR VALUES THAT APPEARS TO BE
OVERESTIMATED. ON THE OTHER HAND... GFDL HOLDS ONTO HECTOR AS A
HURRICANE FOR 2 DAYS WHICH SEEMS WAY TOO HIGH. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE SHIPS...WHICH PROBABLY HAS THE
RIGHT IDEA...AND AGREES WELL WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE... ABOUT 290/12.
THE HURRICANE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A MIDDLE-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER MEXICO. HECTOR COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE ON TWO EXTREMES OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... WITH THE NOGAPS PLOWING HECTOR
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY...
WHILE THE UKMET IS SEEMINGLY UNAFFECTED AND CONTINUES MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE BIT
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 16.1N 125.8W 85 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.9N 127.4W 80 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.8N 129.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.7N 130.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.6N 132.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 134.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 22/1200Z 22.0N 137.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 23/1200Z 22.5N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[Cyclenall]

Hurricane Hector started looking terrible on AVN and SAT in the morning hours but now he is making a comeback. What I find odd is how the NHC hasn't been talking about dry air because that is big part of why Hector was looking bad. However, I see now that Hector may have won over the dry air or "mixed it out" as we say it. I don't see as much dry air into the system as before. I agree with the NHC setting the strength down to 85 knots at 11:00 am EST based on how the eye wall opened up and the ragged look. Now Hector could be strengthening again up to 90 knots and maybe even 95 knots before 5:00 pm EST. If that eye can re-appear and stay stable and not become cloud-filled, we may have a shot. Deep convection needs to form a ring as well around the eye.

New % chance that Hurricane Hector will become a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Category 2 Hurricane: 100%
Category 3 Hurricane: 30%
Category 4 Hurricane: 6%
Category 5 Hurricane: Lower then 0.6%

[cycloneye]

059
WTPZ44 KNHC 182032
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006

AN EYE HAS PERIODICALLY BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON IN BOTH THE
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY VALUES OF 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
85 KT. A 1446Z QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUT ABOUT 125 NM AT MOST IN THE NW QUADRANT AND TO
75 NM AT MOST IN THE SW QUADRANT...WHICH IS SMALLER THAN OUR
PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.

CURRENT MOTION OF HECTOR CONTINUES AT A HEADING OF 290 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 12 KT. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME...IT
SHOULD MOVE WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THAT WILL TURN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE A BIT MORE TO THE WEST AFTER ABOUT THREE DAYS.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST AS THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS OF THE NOGAPS AND
GFDL MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD ON TO TOO STRONG AND TOO LARGE A VORTEX
FOR TOO LONG.

HECTOR IS GOING TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SSTS AND STABLE AIR
WHICH SHOULD BEGIN MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN ABOUT A DAY.
HOWEVER... THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ANALYZED IN THE SHIPS
MODEL TOO HIGH DUE TO ADJACENT STRONG SHEAR ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM. THE CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM 18Z SUGGESTS
VERTICAL SHEAR CLOSER TO 5 TO 10 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
GENERALLY BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND ABOVE THE FSU
SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH
THREE DAYS. DISSIPATION IS DELAYED IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS AND LOWER SHEAR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.7N 126.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 128.6W 80 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 130.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.7N 131.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 133.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 20.5N 135.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 138.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 141.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA

[CrazyC83]

I think that Hector has peaked personally.

[AnnularCane]

I think that Hector has peaked personally.

Every time I think that, his eye pops open again.

[cycloneye]

344
WTPZ44 KNHC 190239
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006

HECTOR HAS GONE THROUGH A CYCLE OF WARMING THEN RE-COOLING CLOUD
TOPS AROUND THE EYE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYEWALL HAS BEEN OPEN ON THE WEST SIDE. THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS REMAINED THE SAME SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY WITH NEARLY UNCHANGED DATA T-NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM TAFB AND
5.0 FROM SAB AND AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED
AT 85 KT.

HECTOR ONLY HAS ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS LEFT OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM
WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING
AFTER CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM...BARELY HANGING ON AS A HURRICANE
IN 24 HOURS THEN WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BY 72 HOURS. THIS RATE
OF WEAKENING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH KEEP THE
CYCLONE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RATE OF WEAKENING OBSERVED
DURING HURRICANES BUD AND CARLOTTA EARLIER THIS SEASON WHEN THEY
MOVED OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE SAME VICINITY.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES ON A MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT TRACK WITH A
MOTION OF 290/11. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS AS HECTOR MOVES TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BETWEEN 125W AND 145W. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
CLUSTERED WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE
A BIT PRIMARILY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE
CYCLONE. WITH THE RATE OF WEAKENING NOTED ABOVE...IT IS ASSUMED
THAT HECTOR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED WESTWARD BY
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 17.0N 128.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.6N 129.6W 80 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.4N 131.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.3N 132.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 134.2W 40 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 21.0N 136.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 23/0000Z 21.5N 139.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 24/0000Z 22.0N 142.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

[Cyclenall]

Hurricane Hector is now back up to 90 knots with a pressure of 970 mb according to the NRL. I'm not sure why but I guess there is more deep convection right now. There isn't a eye either. Well i'm glad Hector is not obeying the forecasts because it's just more fun and odd to track.

I think that Hector has peaked personally.

He went back up to 90 knots so I wonder what the chances are of him getting a tiny bit stronger?