Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

PTPatrick · #61 Postby **PTPatrick** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:39 pm

Wow..

CMC is quite the flip flopper...lets see a few more runs. Also, I know GFS and GFDL have had some problems. I would like to seem a few more runs of them that are "consistent" before getting too excited about them. But the definately paint a bad picture for FL, as well, as AL, MS, and LA

smacky · #62 Postby **smacky** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:40 pm

Are the conditions right for a major hurricane ? I have read that some people dont think they are. A little confused about this. I'm just your average idiot, so please bear with me.

miamicanes177 · #63 Postby **miamicanes177** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:44 pm

If CMC is right and instead of florida it shifted slighty west and hit new orleans on the 1 year date...holy cow. Ernesto could finish off what katrina started. Yuck...ok bad thoughts...hope that does not happen.

#64 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:45 pm

There is alot of convection firing north I hope the center does not relocate farther north. Is it possible?

Wx_Warrior · #65 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:46 pm

Florida St v. Miami U game may be in trouble

#66 Postby **fci** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:46 pm

gatorcane wrote:Oh man....models are now coming into more agreement on a big weakness in the ridge!!!!!!!!

This is huge. Now Florida is very much in trouble...

CMC and GFS are now pulling it up the West Coast of Florida

BocaCane:
Selfishly (sp?); it does not look like an issue for us in SE Fl.
Not that I wish it on the west caast of anywhere but this should still pass well to the west of us East Coast Floridians with no real effect on our weather (or schools) as we near the anniversary of being closed for a day when Katrina slid by to our south.

#67 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:46 pm

Wednesday morning..500 level...How in the world is Ernesto turning north into this??? Somethings not right??

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

#68 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:46 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Florida St v. Miami U game may be in trouble

No why that is a week from this coming Mon...Ernesto should be long gone by then. 8-)

#69 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:47 pm

fci wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Oh man....models are now coming into more agreement on a big weakness in the ridge!!!!!!!!

This is huge. Now Florida is very much in trouble...

CMC and GFS are now pulling it up the West Coast of Florida

BocaCane:
Selfishly (sp?); it does not look like an issue for us in SE Fl.
Not that I wish it on the west caast of anywhere but this should still pass well to the west of us East Coast Floridians with no real effect on our weather (or schools) as we near the anniversary of being closed for a day when Katrina slid by to our south.

I understand but most of my family is in Tampa Bay ....so I do worry about them

Wx_Warrior · #70 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:47 pm

Go Canes! The football team of course!

PTPatrick · #71 Postby **PTPatrick** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:47 pm

well...CMC hasnt been great of late. If memory serves it spear-headed the campaign on the SW carribean ghost storm last weekend that should have hit Panama City yesterday. A NW florida forecast worries me though none-the less...storm tracks and models often swing back and forth a lot between NOLA and Apalachicola when they are headed for that region.

#72 Postby **Bailey1777** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:49 pm

Too far South moving too fast West. IMO will not be a Florida player.

bostonseminole · #73 Postby **bostonseminole** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:49 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Florida St v. Miami U game may be in trouble

lucky for the hurricanes

#74 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:50 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:Too far South moving too fast West. IMO will not be a Florida player.

Charley and Ivan were at the same locations - both nailed Florida

Wx_Warrior · #75 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:50 pm

I'm going to go all in on due west once in the GOM to Mexico!

I've got pocket rockets (2 Aces) and Ernest Madril has 7 high!

PTPatrick · #76 Postby **PTPatrick** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:50 pm

Didnt GFDL do very well on Katrina...wasnt it the first to call the SW track across SW FL?

#77 Postby **fci** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:51 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Florida St v. Miami U game may be in trouble

I don't think that it is an issue for the FSU-UM game.
1- It will be long gone by then
2- This does not look to be an issue for Dade County. Maybe up in Tallahassee but the game is down here.

Noles2006 · #78 Postby **Noles2006** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:51 pm

boston - good to have you on the board. I need a lotta reinforcement here; seems there are lots of UM and UF fans.

This should not jeopardize the game, though.

I'm a little puzzled as to what the models are showing, myself...

#79 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:51 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Wednesday morning..500 level...How in the world is Ernesto turning north into this??? Somethings not right??

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

I see no trough here to turn Ernesto north like the GFS is show on it's surface maps??

#80 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Aug 24, 2006 11:51 pm

why the turn to the north now?????

Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

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