TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

Jim Cantore · #61 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:40 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Landfall near Gulf Shores Alabama at 100-105kts

I'm not very confident of it yet.

#62 Postby **JtSmarts** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:41 pm

Looks similar to Dennis.

Scorpion · #63 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:41 pm

Heh sooner or later people will see a jog to the north and declare it will get killed over Haiti.

Jim Cantore · #64 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:42 pm

JtSmarts wrote::uarrow: Looks similar to Dennis.

When I saw the 5pm advisory, that was my first thought

Sanibel · #65 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:43 pm

Ernesto is starting have that nasty (buzz saw) look to it.

I've been telling people this has a muscular look and is taking on a hurricane Dvorak shape.

Not good for something that hasn't hit favorable waters yet.

#66 Postby **Buck** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:43 pm

I think the reason people think its moving north is (besides the relocation of the center) because its definitely growing in size... and that's adding to the illusion that its moving north.

Droop12 · #67 Postby **Droop12** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:44 pm

Dennis last year showed us that a major hurricane can survive and even strengthen very close to land. I think Dennis parralled the Cuban coast for quite awhile and gained intensity, Since thats the case I dont believe Ernesto will have any problems strengthening (albeit shear might be a hinderance) the next 48 hours.

Opal storm · #68 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:44 pm

It looks like the relocation of the center has fooled people into thinking that it's going further north of the track when really it's not.IMO the ridge will keep this away from S FL.

Jim Cantore · #69 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:44 pm

Buck wrote:I think the reason people think its moving north is (besides the relocation of the center) because its definitely growing in size... and that's adding to the illusion that its moving north.

Also it's center was relocated further north.

EDIT: Woops, didnt see that.

#70 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:45 pm

unless I am seeing something it looks like it has jogged a bit north (wobbled) recently.....does anybody else see this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

#71 Postby **Toadstool** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:45 pm

Buck wrote:I think the reason people think its moving north is (besides the relocation of the center) because its definitely growing in size... and that's adding to the illusion that its moving north.

Doesn't adding in size (and organization) usually cause a storm to pull more northward? Perhaps it is strengthening a bit faster than the initial models predicted?

#72 Postby **Buck** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:45 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:
Buck wrote:I think the reason people think its moving north is (besides the relocation of the center) because its definitely growing in size... and that's adding to the illusion that its moving north.

Also it's center was relocated further north.

I said "(besides the relocation of the center)"

Droop12 · #73 Postby **Droop12** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:45 pm

gatorcane wrote:unless I am seeing something it looks like it has jogged a bit north (wobbled) recently.....does anybody else see this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Nope, I dont see it.

#74 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:46 pm

Toadstool wrote:
Buck wrote:I think the reason people think its moving north is (besides the relocation of the center) because its definitely growing in size... and that's adding to the illusion that its moving north.

Doesn't adding in size (and organization) usually cause a storm to pull more northward? Perhaps it is strengthening a bit faster than the initial models predicted?

good point, really good point. MetS?

#75 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:47 pm

Droop12 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:unless I am seeing something it looks like it has jogged a bit north (wobbled) recently.....does anybody else see this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Nope, I dont see it.

look harder at the last couple of frames, the whole thing wobbles north....

#76 Postby **Buck** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:47 pm

2131. 1625N 07127W 01530 5001 140 054 146 100 056 01568 0000000100

Vortex coming soon.

Scorpion · #77 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:47 pm

gatorcane wrote:unless I am seeing something it looks like it has jogged a bit north (wobbled) recently.....does anybody else see this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Do not use a short term loop to tell direction. Recon is in there for a reason.

Stratosphere747 · #78 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:47 pm

It was "relocated" north.

Bevin was conservative and mentioned the vague possibility of a movement change.

The incoming VDM should settle the directional heading.

Jim Cantore · #79 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:47 pm

Perhaps it is strengthening a bit faster than the initial models predicted?

Thats famillar over the last two years. Dennis being a prime example, Who originally wasnt supposed to become a Hurricane until he hit the gulf.

x-y-no · #80 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Aug 26, 2006 4:48 pm

Continuing my commentary on the 18Z GFS run:

At 18 hours, the surface low (still 1008mb) is stacked in the right place under the 850mb low, just entering the passage between Haiti and Jamaica.

The 500mb ridge isn't backing off so badly any more.

Upper levels, the low is backed off SW approaching Central America, weak high building over the system

TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

Who is online