TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[rnbaida]

Like I said above.....The GFS is stupid at this point and we shouldnt even look at it until the invest develops into something.

[Trugunzn]

ECMWF developes it:

[Derecho]

[yeah, I just figured that out after posting my original message. This would be very weird if it verified.

If that actually happened, then I'm Joe Bastardi.

It's actually sort of realistic for two systems to rotate counterclockwise like that around a common point - Fujiwhara - but it's inconceivable to me that the two systems that close could survive as distinct lows (while 90L seems to become an organized TC quickly, 99L is much slower to develop on the GFS.

[rnbaida]

Joe Bastardi said that there would be a major hurricane in the atlantic within 10-15 days....So he may be right....

[Extremeweatherguy]

Joe Bastardi said that there would be a major hurricane in the atlanta within 10-15 days....So he may be right....

you mean the Atlantic right? not Atlanta the city I hope.

[Derecho]

Joe Bastardi said that there would be a major hurricane in the atlanta within 10-15 days....So he may be right....

He also repeatedly asserted that Chris would redevelop in the GOM, and flatly asserted on the day advisories stopped for Chris that another TC would develop in the Atlantic in the next week (it took another 3 weeks.)

Actually, saying on September 1st that there would be a major hurricane in the Atlantic by September 15th is straight climo -that is, it's normal.

It's like predicting in November that December would be colder than November. It's a non-prediction.

[superfly]

It's like predicting in November that December would be colder than November. It's a non-prediction.

I predict there will be snow in the northeast in February.

[Derecho]

ECMWF developes it:

In case people don't know, there are excellent "make your own" ECMWF maps at Plymouth State that come out fast - set the map to "Atlantic Tropical" set the model to ECMWF, set it to show "Sea level pressure" set the interval to .5 (shows weak waves well) and contour type to line.


http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbcalc2.html

It's hard to tell because you only get a map every 24 hours, but oddly the EC does not seem to show 98L at all - just 90L - the low shown on the above map is indeed 90L, as best I can tell.

And it shows 90L eating and destroying a tropical cyclone that forms from the wave coming off Africa now.

[sunnyday]

On Sunday before Ernesto came though Florida, he was on Fox news. He drew a line straight up the middle of Florida and said that the storm would go that way. It did. Nobody else was sure before he was, were they?

[JonathanBelles]

can somebody draw me a map of the 3 invests?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks to be a LLC developing at 12.5/35.5...I can tell that its closed if not very very close to being so because of the low level flow around the base. With already nice banding and all quads. The thing is the new blow up forming over the southwest quad, will be the tringer. If that fires over the center then we will likely have a cyclone.

Yes theres dry air to the north that could always provent development...But shear and moisture over the system looks faverable. Gfs,ECMWF develops it...

[Brent]

can somebody draw me a map of the 3 invests?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

From left to right: 99L, 98L, 90L. 98L and 90L are very close together but the easternmost blob is 90L.

[JonathanBelles]

can somebody draw me a map of the 3 invests?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

From left to right: 99L, 98L, 90L. 98L and 90L are very close together but the easternmost blob is 90L.

thanks brent

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 18N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD ELONGATED LOW/MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING E OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N35W THAT
HAS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN
34W-46W.

[Derecho]

QUIKSCAT pass from late afternoon is finally out:


http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png


Clearly shows 98L and 90L essentially share an elongated circulation.

It's far from a foregone conclusion that 90L is the winner -right now 98L has far more deep convection than 90L.

[HurricaneHunter914]

98L does have convection, but no circulation what so ever.

[Noah]

What invest should florida west coast be watching? I realize this is a far off question'

And what invest has the most potential right now?

[Derecho]

98L does have convection, but no circulation what so ever.

QS clearly shows that 98L and 90L share the same elongated circulation.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Okay, never mind.

[beachbum_al]

What invest should florida west coast be watching? I realize this is a far off question'

And what invest has the most potential right now?

Invest for the any area to watch right now is too early in the game to predict. When it becomes a name storm and it is in the GOM I think then maybe there will be a better out look. Right now I am saying 90L could have potential to develop and maybe 99L down the road but I am not an expert and I am sure the promets will and do have a better and more educated explanation than I do.