SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

[wxmann_91]

The cold shot coming up for you guys looks nothing like the last cold blast since the origins of the trough shown on the GFS are from the Pacific. (Also evidenced by the 850 temps which get nowhere near 0.) It should also be a progressive system which might minimize flooding threat, and the timing of the cold front (in the morning) could save Houston from some nasty storms. Won't say the same for points further east, though.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The cold shot coming up for you guys looks nothing like the last cold blast since the origins of the trough shown on the GFS are from the Pacific. (Also evidenced by the 850 temps which get nowhere near 0.) It should also be a progressive system which might minimize flooding threat, and the timing of the cold front (in the morning) could save Houston from some nasty storms. Won't say the same for points further east, though.

are you talking about tonight's cold front or next weeks? Tonight's cold front is coming from polar regions and lows tomorrow night will reach the lower to upper 40s over most areas of Houston (colder than the last front).

The front next week though, has the potential to be as strong or even stronger. A few runs have shown the 0C 850mb line reaching Houston and beyond, and though the current 18Z does not, that does not mean it is not possible. There is more of a question about that front's exact strength though (and it could end up weaker), but from what I have seen from the models and heard from sources such as JB, it could be quite a cold shot down the plains.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Fort worth is now down to 61F with 29mph north gusts. This is a 9F drop in the last hour. Dallas is also now down to 67F (a 5F drop since last hour) with northerly gusts to 25mph. This edge of the cold air is going to impact Waco next...with it's first effects probably showing up with the 8pm report.

[JonathanBelles]

looks like next weekend will be wet too.

[wxmann_91]

The cold shot coming up for you guys looks nothing like the last cold blast since the origins of the trough shown on the GFS are from the Pacific. (Also evidenced by the 850 temps which get nowhere near 0.) It should also be a progressive system which might minimize flooding threat, and the timing of the cold front (in the morning) could save Houston from some nasty storms. Won't say the same for points further east, though.

are you talking about tonight's cold front or next weeks? Tonight's cold front is coming from polar regions and lows tomorrow night will reach the lower to upper 40s over most areas of Houston (colder than the last front).

The front next week though, has the potential to be as strong or even stronger. A few runs have shown the 0C 850mb line reaching Houston and beyond, and though the current 18Z does not, that does not mean it is not possible. There is more of a question about that front's exact strength though (and it could end up weaker), but from what I have seen from the models and heard from sources such as JB, it could be quite a cold shot down the plains.

I'm talking about next week's front. I have yet to see a run from the last 24 hours in which the 0 850mb line even reaches TX. And remember that GFS has a cold bias.

[Portastorm]

To me, I think the bigger story here is the continual parade of storm systems rolling across Texas every 4-5 days and the flooding in SE Texas. I hate to say this but I don't see it getting much better. The El Nino pattern is evident.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The cold shot coming up for you guys looks nothing like the last cold blast since the origins of the trough shown on the GFS are from the Pacific. (Also evidenced by the 850 temps which get nowhere near 0.) It should also be a progressive system which might minimize flooding threat, and the timing of the cold front (in the morning) could save Houston from some nasty storms. Won't say the same for points further east, though.

are you talking about tonight's cold front or next weeks? Tonight's cold front is coming from polar regions and lows tomorrow night will reach the lower to upper 40s over most areas of Houston (colder than the last front).

The front next week though, has the potential to be as strong or even stronger. A few runs have shown the 0C 850mb line reaching Houston and beyond, and though the current 18Z does not, that does not mean it is not possible. There is more of a question about that front's exact strength though (and it could end up weaker), but from what I have seen from the models and heard from sources such as JB, it could be quite a cold shot down the plains.

I'm talking about next week's front. I have yet to see a run from the last 24 hours in which the 0 850mb line even reaches TX. And remember that GFS has a cold bias.

Check out the 6Z GFS run, it shows the 0 850mb line all the way past Houston:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

To me, I think the bigger story here is the continual parade of storm systems rolling across Texas every 4-5 days and the flooding in SE Texas. I hate to say this but I don't see it getting much better. The El Nino pattern is evident.

True, that is the bigger story. October could very well end up being the wettest on record in many places across SE Texas, and next weeks event could take quite a toll on already saturated places.

The cool downs are the second biggest story though, because during them, those saturated places can breathe a brief sigh of relief and enjoy some nice Fall weather. Hopefully this rainy pattern will break for a few weeks (though I doubt it), we need a nice sunny period so we can dry out.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The cold push is now south of Waco. They have dropped from 78F to 69F over the last 2 hours and a strong northerly breeze has started up there.

College station will be the next to be impacted by this.

BTW, the dewpoint difference between College station and Waco is 17F. Waco has a DP of 49F, and College station has a DP of 66F.

[vbhoutex]

Just for laughs (until it becomes a trend), check out the 12Z GFS's ARCTIC BLAST it shows entering TX next weekend:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
^^Front slicing in on Friday^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^Saturday morning is filled with snow and ice for the northern part of the state, and a cold rain (in the 30s or 40s) for most of SE Texas.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml
^^A frigid Sunday^^

Wouldn't this be crazy if it played out!

I must not be reading the map right. It doesn't look frigid to me. Maybe it is in the semantics. Cold for Houston, yes. Frigid, no. Correct me if I am wrong, but that map doesn't show us anywhere near frigid, but at 50º across SE TX.

Frigid for October that is (not January). Surface temps on that map look to be well into the 40s across the entire area on that Sunday morning with a nice northerly breeze making it feel quite chilly for sure. It also shows a cloudy, chilly (<60F) day for the Saturday before.

The new run, however, is a bit different and shows less cloud cover/rain behind the front, but still some very cool temperatures by next weekend.

Either way, if this scenario even comes close to playing out, it will likely mean our coolest air so far this fall.

Uh last time I checked the 10ºC line translated to 50ºF. That is not 40's all over the area, but maybe in the norhtern reaches of the metro area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just for laughs (until it becomes a trend), check out the 12Z GFS's ARCTIC BLAST it shows entering TX next weekend:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
^^Front slicing in on Friday^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^Saturday morning is filled with snow and ice for the northern part of the state, and a cold rain (in the 30s or 40s) for most of SE Texas.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml
^^A frigid Sunday^^

Wouldn't this be crazy if it played out!

I must not be reading the map right. It doesn't look frigid to me. Maybe it is in the semantics. Cold for Houston, yes. Frigid, no. Correct me if I am wrong, but that map doesn't show us anywhere near frigid, but at 50º across SE TX.

Frigid for October that is (not January). Surface temps on that map look to be well into the 40s across the entire area on that Sunday morning with a nice northerly breeze making it feel quite chilly for sure. It also shows a cloudy, chilly (<60F) day for the Saturday before.

The new run, however, is a bit different and shows less cloud cover/rain behind the front, but still some very cool temperatures by next weekend.

Either way, if this scenario even comes close to playing out, it will likely mean our coolest air so far this fall.

Uh last time I checked the 10ºC line translated to 50ºF. That is not 40's all over the area, but maybe in the norhtern reaches of the metro area.

The links now send you to today's run, which is different (shows the front moving through faster), but as of 12Z yesterday the 10C line was well to the south of Houston on that Sunday morning...which would have meant areas north of it would be in the 40s. This would have translated into much of the area being below 50F.

[wxmann_91]

The cold shot coming up for you guys looks nothing like the last cold blast since the origins of the trough shown on the GFS are from the Pacific. (Also evidenced by the 850 temps which get nowhere near 0.) It should also be a progressive system which might minimize flooding threat, and the timing of the cold front (in the morning) could save Houston from some nasty storms. Won't say the same for points further east, though.

are you talking about tonight's cold front or next weeks? Tonight's cold front is coming from polar regions and lows tomorrow night will reach the lower to upper 40s over most areas of Houston (colder than the last front).

The front next week though, has the potential to be as strong or even stronger. A few runs have shown the 0C 850mb line reaching Houston and beyond, and though the current 18Z does not, that does not mean it is not possible. There is more of a question about that front's exact strength though (and it could end up weaker), but from what I have seen from the models and heard from sources such as JB, it could be quite a cold shot down the plains.

I'm talking about next week's front. I have yet to see a run from the last 24 hours in which the 0 850mb line even reaches TX. And remember that GFS has a cold bias.

Check out the 6Z GFS run, it shows the 0 850mb line all the way past Houston:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

Geez... I forgot to look at the 6Z. Nevertheless, if that's the only run within the past 24 hours to show that, you can pretty much toss it. Especially considering that it's not a primary run.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JBs evening zone forecasts called for heavy rains next week in our area ending Friday followed by a weekend that is 8-12 degrees below normal! He then said that the week of the 29th would be even cooler than that.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The cold front has reached Brenham!

Within the last hour they have dropped from 81F to 73F and their dewpoint went from 75F to 61F!

Houston is next in line!

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is strange! Check out the latest report from Brenham (which was just at 73F with a DP of 61F a few minutes ago):

Brenham Municipal Airport
Last Update on Oct 21, 10:05 pm CDT

Overcast

95°F
(35°C)
Humidity: 53 %
Wind Speed: N 16 G 25 MPH
Barometer: 29.97"
Dewpoint: 75°F (24°C)
Heat Index: 107°F (42°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

This has got to be a mistake, right?

[Johnny]

The wind just switched out of the Northwest here in the Conroe area.

[ROCK]

Its very close now.......winds are calm here in Pearland so far. Should be here in the next couple of hours.....time to wash the car even if its only for a few days before more rain....

[Johnny]

It's out of the north at 13 mph and the DP is dropping pretty good now. It's here!

[Extremeweatherguy]

getting quite cool here too.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The winds are really whipping right now. The trees are swaying and the walls are creaking! The cold rush of air is certainly here, and it will probably be almost jacket weather by tomorrow morning.

BTW, current gusts are to 20mph at Hooks and 24mph in Conroe.