Typhoon Cimaron in WPAC

[Typhoon Hunter]

The latest visibale sat image is incredible. I pity the people in the path of this absolute beast:

[Typhoon Hunter]

JTWC have now classed Cimaron as a super typhoon with winds of 140kts gusting to 170kts!

[Chacor]

Yeah, confirmed by JTWC. I'm waiting to see if at 09Z JMA push the limits by dropping pressure to 905 hPa.

[Chacor]

Still 910hPa.

SAB:

29/0833 UTC 16.4N 123.1E T7.5/7.5 CIMARON -- West Pacific Ocean

7.5 corresponds to 155 kt, 879 mb...

And even worse...

WWPN20 KNES 280914
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT VIS/IRNIGHT WEST PACIFIC OCEAN
.
OCTOBER 28 2006 0833Z
.
16.4N 123.1E T7.5/7.5/D2.5/24HRS CIMARON (22W)
.
PAST POSITIONS...15.5N 126.0E 28/2033Z IRNIGHT
15.1N 126.9E 28/0833Z VIS/IRNIGHT
ADDL POSITIONS...16.4N 123.5E 29/0536Z AMSU 89
16.2N 123.5E 29/0539Z TRMM 85/37
.
REMARKS...VERY WARM EYE (28C) IS EMBEDDED MORE THAN .95 DEGREES
IN CMG! AND VERY CLOSE TO BEING EMBEDDED IN CDG...AND IT IS
SYMMETRIC AS I HAVE SEEN. STILL EYE NO WOULD BE 6.5. AND EYE ADJ
IS 1.0 FOR SURROUNDING RING OF CDG FOR A FINAL DT OF 7.5. VISIBLE
TECHNIQUE WOULD NOT SUPPORT 8.0 AS BANDING FEATURES ARE OBSCURED
IN THE CIRRUS BLOWOFF OF THE EYEWALL AS IT HAS EXPANDED OVER THE
LAST 6HRS. MET IS UNREPRESENTATIVE 6.5 FORCING THE PT TO BE
7.0..BUT PERSONAL FEELING IS 8.0...DUE MAINLY TO THE EXTREME
WARMTH OF THE EYE TEMP. FT IS 7.5 BASED ON DT. SIDE NOTE: IF
ONE FOLLOWS THE FLOW TABLE FOR OBJECTIVE VALUES IN DVORAK
1984...AN AVERAGE SURROUNDING RING OF -80C LEADS TO AN EYE NO OF
6.8 AND AN EYE TEMP WARMER THAN 16C ADDS 1.2 FOR EYE ADJ.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 29/1600Z.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP-IMG.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
GALLINA
.
NNNN

8.0 corresponds to 170 kt, 858 mbar in the WPac.

[Chacor]

Do any of our pro mets agree with Forecaster Gallina? Could this realistically have just broken the world record for minimum pressure?

[Aslkahuna]

Main problem will be inland flooding as the storm will be going over the main mountain mass of Luzon so the windfield will be disrupted. Very little in the way of major towns or cities along the NE coast of Luzon. The storm will hit a solid mountain wall as soon as it comes ashore. Generally, October and November are the worst months for the Philippines to get strong typhoons but they have happened as late as December (as the US Navy found out in 1944). In fact, until TY Irma in 1974, TY Jean on Christmas Day 1947 was the strongest hit at Clark AB. There was a recent article in the Philippine Inquirer indicating that PAGASA got a USAID grant to purchase and set up some Doppler Radars along the Typhoon approaches to the Philippines. But as far as I know, if it's still up and running, the only weather radar in the Philippines is the old AN/FPS-77 radar at old Clark AB. There are a number of AC&W radar sites and the operators are trained (or at least were when I was there) to make typhoon fixes when the storms appear on their radars.

Steve

[Coredesat]

AFWA agrees with the SSD's fix:

647
TPPN10 KGWC 290855
A. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON)
B. 29/0831Z (102)
C. 16.3N/0
D. 123.3E/9
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T7.5/7.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS -29/0531Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

07A/ PBO 16NM SM EYE/ANMTN.

AODT: 7.9 (CLR EYE)

HAMILTON

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290900UTC 16.4N 123.1E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 300900UTC 17.2N 120.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 310600UTC 17.2N 118.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 010600UTC 17.3N 115.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT

[Aslkahuna]

No it will not break the World's Record for lowest pressure because there are no in-situ observations upon which to base any records. The pressures are just estimates. There are no reporting stations in the area where the storm will be making landfall.

Steve

[P.K.]

There don't appear to be any drifting buoys in the area, this is the lowest pressure I can find from yesterday.

16.30 125.94 51663 2006-10-28 18:40 29.0 -NaN -NaN 997.3

There is another drifting buoy at 14.22N 124.13E but that is only reporting SSTs (29.0C in this case).

[HURAKAN]

You can even see the ocean inside the eye!!!

[Chacor]

About to make landfall.

EDIT: Or, given the time of that image (over an hour ago), it could already have made landfall. Good luck to the people who live there.

[Chacor]

JMA refusing to budge over pressure.

WTPQ20 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 16.5N 122.6E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 16.7N 118.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
48HF 311200UTC 16.5N 116.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 011200UTC 16.5N 113.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT =

16.5°N 122.6°E is just off the coast.

[HURAKAN]

Landfall has occurred.

[CrazyC83]

That looked like Katrina when it was still out in the ocean!

[whereverwx]

Wouldn't you hate to be in the eyewall?

[Ptarmigan]

That's one scary looking typhoon. Hopefully everyone in the Philippines will be okay. It really strengthened fast. This typhoon reminds me of Katrina. Based on Dvorak measurement posted here, it has a pressure of 879 mb. They are only estimates and not actual. How come no one flies into typhoons?

[pojo]

From what I know... the US is the only country that has Hurricane Hunters....

One word: BUDGET!

[P.K.]

Synoptic reconnaissance was out west of the Philippines early this morning. No flights in this region into the storms though.

[pojo]

That would be one Heli of a ride! Beautiful eyewall once penetrated... definitely stadium effect