Signs of change from global models

[dwg71]

12z NOGAPS



Hello to NOGAPS that joins the combo ,although it only hints at something in that area,not shows a definitive thing developing.Let's see the 00z run from this always less agressive model to see if it still hints at something.

What am I missing, I dont see anything on the NOGAPS.

[Meso]

The Nogaps shows a closed low tracking across,like he said. It only hints at something.. But most of the models close a low and track it west

[canegrl04]

Could it be we are seeing the early stages of Chantal? This is the first time in awhile that more than the CMC is hinting at formation

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS



Hello to NOGAPS that joins the combo ,although it only hints at something in that area,not shows a definitive thing developing.Let's see the 00z run from this always less agressive model to see if it still hints at something.

What am I missing, I dont see anything on the NOGAPS.

As I said it's only a small hint but NOGAPS shows briefly it.I posted above the only moment that in this 12z run it shows the thing.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS



This 18z GFS has done what long range models are expected to do and that is a change in scenarios.However it seems to have some low pressures in the MDR area but nothing strong.As you can see,the models change constantly with every run,but let's see if the other models continue to show hints of something in their 00z run later tonight.

[canegrl04]

18z GFS



This 18z GFS has done what long range models are expected to do and that is a change in scenarios.However it seems to have some low pressures in the MDR area but nothing strong.As you can see,the models change constantly with every run,but let's see if the other models continue to show hints of something in their 00z run later tonight.

The models are bound to do some tweaking this far out.I will check back in later tonight to get the model updates.-after I watch my fav. cheesy reality show -Ghost Hunters on SciFi channel

[flwxwatcher]

18z GFS



This 18z GFS has done what long range models are expected to do and that is a change in scenarios.However it seems to have some low pressures in the MDR area but nothing strong.As you can see,the models change constantly with every run,but let's see if the other models continue to show hints of something in their 00z run later tonight.

Yep.. I think the GFS is starting to pick up on the pattern is changing and that Hurricane Season may be about to start in the next several days..

[canegrl04]

18z GFS



This 18z GFS has done what long range models are expected to do and that is a change in scenarios.However it seems to have some low pressures in the MDR area but nothing strong.As you can see,the models change constantly with every run,but let's see if the other models continue to show hints of something in their 00z run later tonight.

Yep.. I think the GFS is starting to pick up on the pattern is changing and that Hurricane Season may be about to start in the next several days..

That's welcome news. Though I hope it either causes minimal damage or goes with the fishes,I'm ready to watch some serious tropical development

[Meso]

And the 06z

WABAM.. gets more interesting each time :p

[Jam151]

Why not show the progged maps through 168HRs? They're just as impressive as the one at 384, but naturally a bit more realistic.

[ronjon]

I know its 384 hrs out but the 06Z GFS develops a Hugo like hurricane that slams into the Carolinas. The GFS appears insistent on developing a cape verde system in the next few days - so far, I don't see much other model support. I noticed GFS develops a weak low in the NE GOM early next week - may have to monitor for homegrown development.

[flwxwatcher]

I also noticed the last 2 GFS runs it tried developing a low in the NE Gulf Next week and the 06Z run still bullish on that wave about to exit Africa . I wonder if wxman57 has his Coffee pot ready??

[boca]

As long as the east coast trough is present 10 storms can line up like a train and will probably curve harmlessly out to sea thank goodness. Reasoning is that its hard to change a pattern thats been in place so long. The trough is supposed to amplify this weekend too. Whatever forms out in the Atlantic will turn northward.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 66 hours.

[Meso]

Yep,still showing that low developing... It's been really consistent with it... Wonder what the other 12z models will show.
Once again at 90 hours it's stronger than the previous run at 96 hours

[cycloneye]

Yep,still showing that low developing... It's been really consistent with it... Wonder what the other 12z models will show

Yes,I want to see CMC,UKMET,NOGAPS and EURO.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 78 hours.

[cpdaman]

with the way the trough has been set up would this have steered storms up the coast, or out to sea, or both

the way i understand it an east coast trough is necessary to curve a storm up toward new england/long island but depending on how far west/east it "sets" up and how deep it gets will determine the storm track

also last year there was a weakness near 60 W that allowed storms to curve at or before bermuda, i dont think this is the case right now (but maybe someone could share there opinion?)

[canegrl04]

As long as the east coast trough is present 10 storms can line up like a train and will probably curve harmlessly out to sea thank goodness. Reasoning is that its hard to change a pattern thats been in place so long. The trough is supposed to amplify this weekend too. Whatever forms out in the Atlantic will turn northward.

Storms that delope slowly and at low latitude are more likely NOT to become a fish.Anywhere from the coastal Gulf to Carolinas could get tagged

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 114 hours.