Earl Advisories

[ColdFront77]

Two things:

(1) I find it hard to believe there were no other tropical cyclones have formed south of latitude 10.0°N.

(2) Systems have moved in from the Caribbean this far out in latitude and have made it past central Cuba and pass through the Cayman Islands and have moved into central America, the Yucantan peninsula or have made landfall somewhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast.

[TampaFl]

Will do. lets hope this is not like Isadore and Lilli in 2002 where Louisana was threatned by two hurricanes in 5 days.

Robert

[TampaFl]

Another digging trof and possibly pulling td# 5 northward. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

FXUS62 KMLB 140729
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...

...CHARLEY ACCELERATING AWAY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST BUT
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE ACROSS CENTRAL FL...

TODAY...DEEP SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE CHARLEY
AND AHEAD OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
TROPICAL AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS MORNING...THE THREAT FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL PERSIST. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTH FLORDIA WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR LIGHTNING STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE PENINSULA WILL
DESTABILIZE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DEEP S/SW FLOW WILL PRODUCE TRAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRYING AND COOLING IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR STORMS
PRODUCING STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY ALONG THE PATH OF THE EYEWALL WILL
BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING TODAY. SO WILL CONTINUE FLOOD
WATCH FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD NORTHWARD. WILL DROP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES AS
THREAT FOR FLOODING NOT AS GREAT THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL.

TONIGHT...OVERALL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS CHARLEY RACES UP
THE EAST COAST. WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DECREASING COVERAGE.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH THE MOIST SOIL AND WITH WINDS
DROPPING OFF TOWARDS MORNING.

SUN...H5 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL NOSE BACK ACROSS S FL WITH INVERTED
SFC TROUGH PERSISTING FROM NE GOM UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.
RESULTING S/SE FLOW WILL FAVOR INTERIOR AND NORTH COAST FOR RAIN
CHANCES AND HAVE DRAWN 60% FROM ORLANDO METRO AREA NORTH TO DAB WITH
LOWEST POPS ALONG THE MARTIN/ST LUCIE COAST WHERE MORE ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL PUSH SEA BREEZE AND ANY ASSOCD CONVECTION RATHER
QUICKLY INLAND.

MON-FRI...WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE
FA WHICH WILL PROVIDE AN ONSHORE (EASTERLY) FLOW FROM THE SFC-H85.
GFS SHOWS A WEAK WAVE AFFECTING SOUTH FL AND POSSIBLY OUR SOUTHERN
COASTAL COUNTIES TUE-TUE NIGHT. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON TD 5 AS IT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WNW THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. TPC DAY 5 POSITION
PLACES IT NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH COULD PULL IT NORTHWARD.

&&.MARINE...HURRICANE WARNING COCOA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH WILL LIKELY
BE DROPPED SHORTLY AS CHARLEY ACCELERATES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUBSIDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL START
OFF WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH LEG AND CAUTION SOUTH LEG.
THESE HEADLINES MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED WITH THE 1030 AM UPDATE AS
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS ESTABLISHES ITSELF JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...FLOOD WATCH TODAY VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA
AND BREVARD COUNTIES.
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 87 74 87 74 / 70 30 60 30
MCO 88 74 89 74 / 70 30 60 30
MLB 88 75 87 74 / 60 30 50 20
VRB 88 75 88 72 / 60 30 40 20

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HIRSCH
LONG TERM....KELLY
HAZARDS......SHARP

[LaBreeze]

Exactly - I took a direct hit from Lili. Half of my oak tree was in my rear attic and the other half of my roof was gone as well as my garage and patio. No electricity for 2 and a half weeks. Still too fresh in my mind.

[LaBreeze]

Any idea or hints as to the possible strength of this upper trough?

[Huckster]

During the last 10 years, there have been a couple of storms form below 10 degrees and several that formed very close.

2003:
Nicolas, 9.5, 37.0
2002:
Dolly, 9.5, 31.2
Isidore, 10.0, 60.5
Lili, 10.2, 44.6
1999:
Jose, 9.8, 50.8
1998:
Georges, 9.7, 25.1
Jeanne, 9.6, 17.4
1996:
Bertha, 9.8, 34.0
Isidore, 8.6, 23.3
1995:
Pablo, 8.3, 31.4
1994:
Ernesto, 10.1, 29.9

Lili, Isidore, Jose, Georges, and Bertha will all be remembered for a long time. So, just within the last ten years, there is precedent for storms forming below 10 degrees. Will TD5 join that group? Only time will tell, but if history proves to be a good indicator, there is a good chance TD5 will become the next named system, and probably, the next hurricane, maybe even major. Hard to believe we're just now getting to the middle of August, and by the 15th, we're likely to have already had 5 named systems and two major hurricanes. Even if no other storm forms the rest of the year (yeah right), this will already be one for the record books. In fact, I am sure information collected from Charley will find its way into many reports, books, etc., for years to come. If this pace keeps up, would not be surprised to see this as one of the most costly hurricane seasons yet.

[TampaFl]

It appears that it may not be as strong as this last one. But I am no expert .

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/7d/mrf_pres_7d.gif


Robert

[Huckster]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
330 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...
VERY UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH A TEMPORAL
DISPLACEMENT OF ABOUT 47 DAYS...OCTOBER 1ST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT FOR THIS DATE MAKES SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FEEL
MORE LIKE WHAT NORTHERN IOWA WOULD EXPERIENCE NORMALLY. LOCAL
ANTECDOTAL RECOLLECTION FROM RESIDENT STAFFERS FAILS EVER
EXPERIENCING SUCH AUTUMNAL WEATHER IN MID-AUGUST...BUT CLIMATE
RECORDS INDICATE SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN MID-AUGUST 1967.

THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FEATURE VERY FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGES. IT IS GETTING DIFFICULT TO STRAY MUCH FROM THE GFS WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ANOMOLOUS PATTERN. THE NEXT
CHANCE AT RAINFALL STILL APPEARS TO BE NEXT THURSDAY AS A LOW
LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS AND TAPS
INTO DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW PATTERN. MEANWHILE...WILL HAVE TO
MAINTAIN A VIGILANCE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE AS IT COULD BE
ENTERING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY DAY 5 AS A DEVELOPED CYCLONE.
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE CONCERNS WILL REMAIN BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

[TerryAlly]

Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 3


Statement as of 5:00 am AST on August 14, 2004



watches may be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles later
today. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean
Sea should closely monitor this system over the next few days.

At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Five was
located near latitude 9.8 north... longitude 49.8 west or about
700 miles...1130 km... east-southeast of the Windward Islands.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph
...32 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.

Repeating the 5 am AST position... 9.8 N... 49.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 am AST.

Forecaster Jarvinen

[abajan]

A tad slower too.

[Scott_inVA]

#5 is the lead storm (Danielle is the fish behind it).

T.D. #5 is under the Charley map.

Thanks

Scott
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[washington]

does anyone think TD#5 has the chance to become another major hurricane in the GOM later this week.

[jlauderdal]

does anyone think TD#5 has the chance to become another major hurricane in the GOM later this week.

yes it has a chance. however, when anyone here or anywhere else gets a handle on intensity forecasting then head over to NHC and give them a hand.

[Guest]

lol as of now itll probably be at least cat 2 and it looks as if itll have a us landfall.

[cycloneye]

14/1145 UTC 9.8N 51.1W T2.5/2.5 05 -- Atlantic Ocean


Will it be clasified as tropical storm Earl later today?

[Dean4Storms]

Yes, this storm looks stronger than a TD.

[~SirCane]

We're really going to have to watch this one. I think this one is destined to do a similar path that Georges did. What Charley did was extremely rare for August.

Looking at what happened in S. Florida, that scares me. Gave me visions of Opal. We'll just have to wait and see. Future Earl is days away afterall.

[goodlife]

I don't want to think about that...something needs to send that thing out to sea!!!

[Anonymous]

I don't want to think about that...something needs to send that thing out to sea!!!

Yeah, I can imagine emergency funding(red cross, etc) may be thin for a while after Charley... And their crews are all dealing with Florida and possibly the Carolinas. TD#5/Earl is not needed.

[Thunder44]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg