Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[KWT]

I wonder whether the fact that the GFDL races this upto 17-20kts after 36hrs partly explains why the GFDL loses this system at 84hrs, certainly seems a little unrealistic for it to suddenly move that fast!

[Buck]

It's very big!

This one could be interesting!!

[CrazyC83]

If this forms at its current latitude, history is made as it would be the lowest latitude that an Atlantic system has ever been declared a TD at...

[CrazyC83]

It's very big!

This one could be interesting!!

Despite its low latitude, I think an early recurve is in store - which could be live-saving as it could be a major hurricane at that point...

[LarryWx]

CMC brings this in 5 days just northeast of the islands
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

It also shows the ridge to the north breaking down by 5 days and a clear shot to recurve. Or it could just slow down and wait for the next passing high to the north to drive it back westward.

I agree with the underlined statement. IMHO, if 96L does about what this CMC run suggests (20N, 54W day 6), this would have recurve well east of the CONUS written all over it.

However, note that it also has a weak surface low moving steadily NW from an initialized position near 11N, 57 (i.e. what would seemingly be 97 L) to 26N, 77W (within the Bahamas) on day 6 with a fairly strong surface high of ~1029 mb moving westward over the Ohio Valley. This would clearly imply to me a WNW to W move from there and a subsequent hit around the next day (Sun 9/30) on the FL pen.

I hope that this isn't another Ingrid/future TD 10 scenario where more attention is paid from a CONUS standpoint to the further out system only because it is better looking now.

Of course, the CMC is a rather poor tropical model overall. But I think what it shows makes sense.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Latest

[wxman57]

Squalls are concentrating farther north now, closer to 9N-10N. So it may not be a TD as far south as some are thinking.

[LarryWx]

Squalls are concentrating farther north now, closer to 9N-10N. So it may not be a TD as far south as some are thinking.

This wouldn't at all be surprising given that virtually no TD is on record forming below 7 N in the north Atlantic basin. Maybe this would also reduce the number of posters thinking no recurve.

[Buck]

What is the lowest forming TD/Storm on record now?

[Buck]

Found the answer... Hurricane Isidore (1990) formed at 7.2 N.

[HURAKAN]

What is the lowest forming TD/Storm on record now?

Isidore, 1990, 7.2ºN.

[KWT]

I think mind you even if it does fish it won't totally recurve (IE go NNE/NE) as the weaknesses really aren't that strong, more likely if it feels any weakness wil lbe for it to head NNW...there's a strong area of upper high pressure from the central Atlantic through to Greenland that will probably provide a neat NW/NNW channel and if thats the case I think Bermuda may need to watch out depending on how far it gets before it feels the weakness.
The closest match I've seen so far IMO is Issac from 2001 but I'm sure there are better matches out there.

97L is the true threat to the USA...but 96L does look like it has all the hallmarks of becoming a strong hurricane.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1842 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070923 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070923 1800 070924 0600 070924 1800 070925 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 7.1N 29.4W 7.9N 31.6W 8.8N 33.9W 9.7N 36.3W
BAMD 7.1N 29.4W 7.7N 31.6W 8.6N 33.7W 9.3N 35.8W
BAMM 7.1N 29.4W 7.8N 31.9W 8.8N 34.4W 9.5N 36.9W
LBAR 7.1N 29.4W 7.8N 32.3W 8.9N 35.5W 9.9N 38.7W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070925 1800 070926 1800 070927 1800 070928 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 39.0W 12.7N 45.0W 15.7N 51.4W 18.5N 56.2W
BAMD 9.8N 37.8W 11.0N 42.0W 13.2N 45.7W 15.8N 48.2W
BAMM 10.0N 39.4W 11.3N 44.7W 13.8N 49.5W 16.8N 52.3W
LBAR 10.6N 41.8W 12.0N 47.2W 14.8N 50.7W 17.1N 54.9W
SHIP 63KTS 80KTS 86KTS 85KTS
DSHP 63KTS 80KTS 86KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.1N LONCUR = 29.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 6.2N LONM12 = 26.1W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 6.2N LONM24 = 23.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

[fci]

Looks like we will be seeing Karen and Lorenzo soon.Odds are that at least one will be a hurricane with the U.S.'s name on it

Can wxman do a map with the words Hurricane AND U.S. all over it????

[Hurricaneman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



I can see 4 possibilities for this, It could pull a Issac 2000 track, Luis 1995 track or if the ridge bulids back in an Isabel 2003 track, or even god forbid 1938, which I think is the least likely of the 4 so its something to keep an eye on

[HURAKAN]

[Thunder44]

CMC brings this in 5 days just northeast of the islands
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

It also shows the ridge to the north breaking down by 5 days and a clear shot to recurve. Or it could just slow down and wait for the next passing high to the north to drive it back westward.

This is what the 0z ECMWF showed last night.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

The 12z run is coming out on Plymouth now.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/1800 UTC 7.5N 28.5W T1.0/1.0 96L

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS

NOGAPS shows 96L,but it does not have it strong.