Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone GUBA 02P

[cycloneye]

The 20:00 UTC image:

[Squarethecircle]

That picture is of Sidr...

[cycloneye]

This one is from GUBA (2P):

[Squarethecircle]

There's a pretty looking storm... It looks quite a bit stronger than the 45 knots the JTWC has it as.

[CrazyC83]

Looks quite sheared though...similar to many Atlantic storms this season...

[HURAKAN]

Beginning to look quite beautiful.

[Cyclenall]

Looks quite sheared though...similar to many Atlantic storms this season...

It doesn't look like there is any shear affecting the storm at all.

[Squarethecircle]

There is hardly any shear at all around the storm. It looks really, really good.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11am EST on Friday the 16th of November 2007

At 10 am EST Friday, Tropical Cyclone Guba [Category 2] with central pressure
980 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 11.2 south, longitude 146.7
east, which is about 400 km east northeast of Lockhart River and 500 km north
northeast of Cooktown.

The cyclone has recently moved SE but is expected to drift southward for the
next day or two while intensifying. It is not expected to cause gales on the
Queensland coast within the next 48 hours.

The next bulletin will be issued by 5 pm EST Friday.

[WindRunner]

This is one of my favorite places to see TC's . . . not quite sure why, but maybe they just kind of fit well in this spot?

Regardless, Guba is pulling its act together quite nicely right now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it strengthen a little faster than what JTWC is calling for.

[HURAKAN]

EYE = HURRICANE WINDS

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

It sure took off this morning (evening over on this side of the world)...probably 65 kt now.

[HurricaneBill]

3 dead in Papua New Guinea due to flooding from Guba.

http://www.rnzi.com/pages/news.php?op=read&id=36470

BTW, if you're curious how to pronounce Guba, it rhymes with Cuba.

[HURAKAN]

[WindRunner]

EYE = HURRICANE WINDS

Not necessarily . . . eyes/eye features can start forming well before sustained winds reach SS-Cat 1 strength, as is probably the case here. Of course, it is generally a good sign that strengthening to hurricane-force winds is imminent, but not necessarily that they exist the moment an eye pops out.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0630 UTC 16/11/2007
Tropical Cyclone: Guba
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.4S
Longitude: 146.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (154 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (170 km/h)
Central Pressure: 970 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm (37 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (37 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm (150 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 16/1800: 11.5S 146.7E: 035 (065): 070 (130): 965
+24: 17/0600: 11.9S 146.6E: 045 (085): 070 (130): 965
+36: 17/1800: 12.1S 146.2E: 055 (100): 070 (130): 965
+48: 18/0600: 12.3S 145.8E: 065 (120): 070 (130): 965
REMARKS:
System has continued to intensify during the past 6 hours and is now featuring a well defined eye feature with additional tight banding. Remains a small though intense system.
Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1300 UTC by Brisbane TCWC.

[Chacor]

Cat 3 on Aussie scale means Guba is now a Severe Tropical Cyclone.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 1600 AEST on Friday the 16th of November 2007

At 4 pm EST Friday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Guba [Category 3] with central
pressure 970 hPa was located over the Coral Sea near latitude 11.4 south,
longitude 146.7 east, which is about 390 km east northeast of Lockhart River and
480 km north northeast of Cooktown.

The cyclone is currently near stationary but is expected to drift southward for
the next day or two while slowly intensifying. It is not expected to cause gales
on the Queensland coast within the next 48 hours.

The next bulletin will be issued by 11 pm EST Friday.

[HURAKAN]

16/0830 UTC 11.4S 147.0E T4.5/4.5 GUBA -- South Pacific Ocean

[Squarethecircle]

Wow... The JTWC was sure off .