ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looking at the water vapor loop, it looks like to me that Earl maybe running into some north to south wind shear. I may be wrong but it could be that.

[Gustywind]

[Ivanhater]

I'd be getting preps in order if I were in the NE Islands

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Dry air and Danielle's outflow is basically all that is stopping this cyclone from intensifying. Now that Danielle begins to distance herself, and Earl begins begins to enter into a more moist and vertically unstable environment, intensification will likely begin right away. I think in terms of track and intensity the NHC has it spot-on, however, based on steering currents a slightly further track south than the forecast cone can not be ruled out. This very well could match, if not beat Danielle's intensity before all is set and done.

[KWT]

Yeah for sure Ivanhater, its way too close not to prepare...I think the NHC track is now just about spot on and thats close enough to need to watch for wobbles, etc...

[cycloneye]

SAB Dvorak increases T numbers

27/2345 UTC 15.7N 47.3W T3.0/3.0 EARL -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[OURAGAN]

He seems to me, earl is moving to 265° west, what do you think about that?

[KWT]

Whilst its probably more applicable to the model thread the GFDL goes mental for this storm developing a borderline 4/5...and gets to 100kts in just 48hrs...

Given its current state thats looking mighty optimistic but I'd expect this one has a reasonable chance of becoming a major hurricane as it draws northwards...I believe the HWRF solution at the moment in terms of positioning...but its not going to gain much latitude until it gets stronger...

[Ivanhater]

The thunderstorm complex SW may help pull the low to the SW a bit sense the low still seems to be elongated still..

[KWT]

Probably a sign of some shear Ivanhater I'd imagine, may not be long lasting though given all the models are pretty agressive in strengthening still.

I'm thinking this one has a real good shot at hitting the Ne Cairbbean, doesn't seem to be gaining too much latitude right now and given its not really strengthening all that much still it probably isn't going to feel the tug quite as much...though I think regardless of how far west it gets the pattern is there for a recurve somewhere close between say 67-72W.

[ConvergenceZone]

Based on that last Sat picture, I wouldn't be shocked if the track shifted further south by morning...

[OURAGAN]

It remembers me Luis in 1995 when it went straight west to 265°-270W° before recurving and crossing the Northern Leewarsds islands.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

SAB up to T3.0. Expect Earl to get upped to 50mph at 11p.m EDT.

[Gustywind]

The thunderstorm complex SW may help pull the low to the SW a bit sense the low still seems to be elongated still..

Thanks Ivanhater nice sat pic. Can you provide us the link if possible?

[cycloneye]

It remembers me Luis in 1995 when it went straight west to 265°-270W° before recurving and crossing the Northern Leewarsds islands.

That is right,although Luis was a monster cat 4.Hopefully, Earl doesn't get very strong by the time it gets closer to the NE islands.

[Riptide]

Yeah, there must be a strong high pressure SE of Hurricane Danielle because it is really acting on Earl right now. I don't kniw if anyone can afford to see this thing trend farther south in the short-term.

[KWT]

It remembers me Luis in 1995 when it went straight west to 265°-270W° before recurving and crossing the Northern Leewarsds islands.

That is right,although Luis was a monster cat 4.Hopefully, Earl doesn't get very strong by the time it gets closer to the NE islands.

Yeah the only good thing is this one is way weaker then Luis was at this point.

Still hard to ignore the models strengthening this one up, so I could easily see 70-80kts by the time this one comes close to the NE Caribbean Islands providing this presentation sorts itself out soon...

Sure will be interesting to see how things play out with Earl and 97L in the next 10 days or so...wonder just how far west Earl ends up going!

[Gustywind]

It remembers me Luis in 1995 when it went straight west to 265°-270W° before recurving and crossing the Northern Leewarsds islands.

Absolutely Ouragan, your comparison seems quite interresting! Hope that this scenario won't realize but hours after hours Earl seems with my untrained eyes that Earl is trying to drift curiously a bit wsw and races very fast! At this rate it should reach clearly 50w tommorow morning!

[caribepr]

The thunderstorm complex SW may help pull the low to the SW a bit sense the low still seems to be elongated still..

That is a positively unique and sort of scary sat catch, Ivanhater. Thanks, I think!

[KWT]

Will be interesting to see the Vis.imagery tomorrow morning is it continues this presentation to see where the center actually is, could easily be on the northern side of the convection or who know maybe the center has relocated, remains to be seen but IR won't tell us much on that front.