ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarIMAGE2.asp

[lrak]

it really looks like some good LL spin near SW Jamaica.

[HURAKAN]

72 hours

[KWT]

It will probably wait until it gets to the BOC and then blow up Hermine or Alex style.

Thats certainly a possible evolution at the moment though I'd have thought it will have a chance at getting upgraded to a TD before then, esp given what the W.Caribbean often does to systems like this...remember Alex formed in the W.Caribbean after looking terrible the day before.

ps, GFS agrees with this, and blows this one up in the BoC into probably a hurricane...

[wxman57]

Still quite a bit of sinking air in 92L's path. It may have a hard time developing on either side of the Yucatan if this graphic is correct:

[Sanibel]

Now that it is passing Jamaica I would expect it to pulse down less even with the subsidence.

[Vortmax1]

12Z Intensity Guidance:


http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early3.png

[lrak]

Sure looks like something is at the surface just below SW Jamaica. The visible satellites are the only thing I'm basing this on, but it really looks like its spinning

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 880 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
...AND ON TROPICAL STORM JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AT IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Aric, anything new from yesterday about progress towards development or lack of?

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 92, 2010091318, , BEST, 0, 159N, 788W, 25, 1006, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[srainhoutx]

Karl, it appears you may be right. 16N/79W looks mighty suspicious.

[cyclonic chronic]

i believe your right too lrak. some have said it needs to get into the western carib. before development. i do believe there are USF or GRIP planes flying in it today, tho i havent looked at those sites yet today to see if they've been scrubbed. looking at the vis or rgb loops id bet they'd wanna have a look at that turning to the s.w. of jamacia.

[Sanibel]

Today the linear wave axis is apparent again except it has a curved shape and there's noticeable outflow on the SW quadrant.

[lrak]

Karl, it appears you may be right. 16N/79W looks mighty suspicious.

just call me the satellite surfer

[lrak]

:uarrow:

USF or GRIP planes flying in it today, tho i havent looked at those sites yet today to see if they've been scrubbed. .

What are those planes used for research?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, anything new from yesterday about progress towards development or lack of?

Well it at least now it has a lot of curvature in the low levels. there is likely a LLC somewhere near Jamaica. It should develop sometime in the next 24hrs.. everything looks conducive but we all know how that goes.. lol

[cyclonic chronic]

http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/predict/

this site is really cool, got directed to it about 2 weeks ago. some of its a little too scientific for me but seems to be the right way to go as far as research into genesis of t.c.'s and their surroundings.

sorry about bein a lil off topic

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic

[tropicwatch]

From the 2:05pm tropical weather discussion.

"A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA FOCUSED ON A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N77W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 19N75W THROUGH THE LOW CENTER TO 10N81W
MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 75W-81W AND IS LIKELY ENHANCED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 72W-75W AND FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 76W-82W.
WHILE CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE LOW
CENTERED REMAIN LARGELY UNORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS."

With the high in the upper levels, conditions appear to be ripe.