ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301157
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...TOMAS CAUSES DAMAGE ON BARBADOS...NOW HEADING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AT NEAR-HURRICANE STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 60.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA
* DOMINICA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
TOMAS WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A WIND GUST TO 63 MPH...100
KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON BARBADOS. INFORMATION FROM THE BARBADOS
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE INDICATES THAT DAMAGE TO HOMES AND DOWNED
POWER LINES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE ISLAND.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON BARBADOS...AND
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
LATER THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

[HURAKAN]

large eyewall

[Gustywind]

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Gustywind]

[HURAKAN]

Right now we have the same numbers as 1995 (19/11/5) but that's likely to change today when Tomás becomes a hurricane.

[dwsqos2]

It honestly has a rather messy satellite presentation. I'm not sure the 200 mb anticyclone is as well postioned today, but then again the gfs more or less progged that.

[cyclonic chronic]

from the reports comming out of barbados and the winds recon is finding id say we have a hurricane at 11am, maybe even an intermediate.

122430 1321N 05952W 6965 03115 0026 +081 +010 143039 042 055 007 00
122500 1320N 05954W 6966 03111 0013 +089 +009 137038 039 060 003 03
122530 1319N 05955W 6971 03107 0011 +090 +010 140038 038 063 001 03
122600 1317N 05956W 6970 03102 0001 +095 +011 137037 038 066 000 03
122630 1316N 05957W 6966 03103 9989 +102 +011 133038 038 064 000 03
122700 1315N 05959W 6969 03097 9982 +105 +013 134035 037 062 000 03

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS AT 30/1200 UTC IS NEAR 13.1N
60.1W...MOVING WNW NEAR 13 KT. TOMAS IS ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE
OF ST. LUCIA AND ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM E OF ST. VINCENT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 55W-60W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
10N-18N BETWEEN 53W-62W. AN AREA OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO
FARTHER S FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 55W-58W. PORTIONS OF THE OUTER
RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE
WITH THE POTENTIAL THREAT OF FLOODING.

$$
WALTON

[TheEuropean]

from the reports comming out of barbados and the winds recon is finding id say we have a hurricane at 11am, maybe even an intermediate.

122430 1321N 05952W 6965 03115 0026 +081 +010 143039 042 055 007 00
122500 1320N 05954W 6966 03111 0013 +089 +009 137038 039 060 003 03
122530 1319N 05955W 6971 03107 0011 +090 +010 140038 038 063 001 03
122600 1317N 05956W 6970 03102 0001 +095 +011 137037 038 066 000 03
122630 1316N 05957W 6966 03103 9989 +102 +011 133038 038 064 000 03
122700 1315N 05959W 6969 03097 9982 +105 +013 134035 037 062 000 03

But all these readings are flagged.

[DanKellFla]

Is there anybody in Martinique? How is it there. i have some relatives living there.

[HURAKAN]

Latest radar : http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[Gustywind]

Weather is becoming darker and darker in Guadeloupe. Looks like another line of showers is racing near us...

[Gustywind]

[msbee]

Hey Gusty
be careful down there!

[HURAKAN]

Tomás will give October it's 5th hurricane, not even 2005 was able to do that!

[Gustywind]

Hey Gusty
be careful down there!

Thanks Barbara all is ok but i suspect that tonight will be another story and especially tommorow morning...

[Gustywind]

I will continue to keep you informed as usual and as possible if something happens...

[Gustywind]

I will be glad to have infos from St Lucia and St Vincent. Expat2carib from Dominica please don't forget to keep us informed we appreciate.

[Olivier_Madinina]

Is there anybody in Martinique? How is it there. i have some relatives living there.

Hello !

I'm in south Martinique, near Trois-Ilets and Anses d'Arlet.

For now, the wind strengthens and there are temporary showers. Gusts are rather hight (estimate 30/35 knts).