2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[ninel conde]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif

instability still very negative for development. a multi-year trend. dry air, stable tropics, high pressures.

[WeatherEmperor]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

instability still very negative for development. a multi-year trend. dry air, stable tropics, high pressures.

Maybe the Euro wasnt wrong when it was forecasting higher sea level pressures? I forgot who posted the map before but many were questioning the validity of the model. Could it have been correct all along? Lets see what happens in August because now it is right around the corner.

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[ninel conde]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

instability still very negative for development. a multi-year trend. dry air, stable tropics, high pressures.

Maybe the Euro wasnt wrong when it was forecasting higher sea level pressures? I forgot who posted the map before but many were questioning the validity of the model. Could it have been correct all along? Lets see what happens in August because now it is right around the corner.

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

this isnt so good either. july 30th and there is zero convection in the MDR(10N-20N, from the western gom to the coast of africa. ZERO!!

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... &region=ea

there are a few showers with the tortured remains of dorian, but its above 20n. maybe aug/sept will be different, but something is going to have to change. look how far south the very weak ITCZ is. thats a clear sign high pressure is dominating the MDR.

[SFLcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

instability still very negative for development. a multi-year trend. dry air, stable tropics, high pressures.

Maybe the Euro wasnt wrong when it was forecasting higher sea level pressures? I forgot who posted the map before but many were questioning the validity of the model. Could it have been correct all along? Lets see what happens in August because now it is right around the corner.

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

Way to early to make that call 2 systems in July is just bonus in my book before ASO.

[ninel conde]

unusually strong outbreak of SAL

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plitE&time

dont see that much pink very often. thats some serious dry dusty air. its going to be awhile till a wave with moisture can come off africa.

[WeatherEmperor]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

instability still very negative for development. a multi-year trend. dry air, stable tropics, high pressures.

Maybe the Euro wasnt wrong when it was forecasting higher sea level pressures? I forgot who posted the map before but many were questioning the validity of the model. Could it have been correct all along? Lets see what happens in August because now it is right around the corner.

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

Way to early to make that call 2 systems in July is just bonus in my book before ASO.

Oh I didnt make any call. I just questioned whether the Euro pressure forecast was right or not and to see what happens in August.

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[Bocadude85]

I really do not understand all these season cancel posts. We have had 4 storms and its only JULY!! Two storms forming in July is not a normal occurence. The reason the storms struggled is because they developed in a area that is not favorable for tropical cyclone formation in the month of July. The fact that we have Cape Verde tropical waves developing already tells me that we are in store for a active Cape Verde season with the possibilty of a active landfall pattern across the USA. And all this talk of not having a 100kt storm is ridiculous. We have had a major hurricane every year since 1995.

[Ntxw]

In terms of numbers. ACE wise it is pretty typical. The one thing that is not normal and is below normal (seems to have been for ages) is instability in the MDR. That needs to change first before I buy into stronger systems. Quality over quantity.

[tolakram]

:uarrow: In terms of numbers. ACE wise it is pretty typical. The one thing that is not normal and is below normal (seems to have been for ages) is instability. That needs to change first before I buy into stronger systems. Quality over quantity.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Instability is only unusually low in the Tropical Atlantic. Unlike last year it's near normal everywhere else. Last year the instability in the Gulf, for example, was way way below normal.

The other thing I think should be recognized is that right now the formation probability in the east Atlantic is running above normal. Climatology puts formation probability this time of year near 0%.



Let's talk again August 15th or so.

['CaneFreak]

Change will come...there is still 120 days left of hurricane season. Many people tend to forget that the late seasons can be extremely active as well.

this isnt so good either. july 30th and there is zero convection in the MDR(10N-20N, from the western gom to the coast of africa. ZERO!!

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... &region=ea

there are a few showers with the tortured remains of dorian, but its above 20n. maybe aug/sept will be different, but something is going to have to change. look how far south the very weak ITCZ is. thats a clear sign high pressure is dominating the MDR.

[WeatherEmperor]

Guys....there are no season cancel posts here. Everything we have posted so far is purely observational. Will things change? Ofcoarse they will. Most of us have been following hurricanes for many many years to know it will change. All that is being said is that of right now....as of today....conditions are not favorable. I dont see how observing what is happening today is considered season cancel...

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[ninel conde]

Guys....there are no season cancel posts here. Everything we have posted so far is purely observational. Will things change? Ofcoarse they will. Most of us have been following hurricanes for many many years to know it will change. All that is being said is that of right now....as of today....conditions are not favorable. I dont see how observing what is happening today is considered season cancel...

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

maybe its better put, "hyper-seasonal forecasts cancel". patterns do get set and the pattern we have now is little different from 2011/12 except its unlikely to get a bunch of weak swirls north of 30n to inflate numbers.

[Bocadude85]

Guys....there are no season cancel posts here. Everything we have posted so far is purely observational. Will things change? Ofcoarse they will. Most of us have been following hurricanes for many many years to know it will change. All that is being said is that of right now....as of today....conditions are not favorable. I dont see how observing what is happening today is considered season cancel...

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

maybe its better put, "hyper-seasonal forecasts cancel". patterns do get set and the pattern we have now is little different from 2011/12 except its unlikely to get a bunch of weak swirls north of 30n to inflate numbers.

Please show how the pattern this year is the same as the last two years. Because as far as I can tell the pattern is a lot different.

[ninel conde]

Guys....there are no season cancel posts here. Everything we have posted so far is purely observational. Will things change? Ofcoarse they will. Most of us have been following hurricanes for many many years to know it will change. All that is being said is that of right now....as of today....conditions are not favorable. I dont see how observing what is happening today is considered season cancel...

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

maybe its better put, "hyper-seasonal forecasts cancel". patterns do get set and the pattern we have now is little different from 2011/12 except its unlikely to get a bunch of weak swirls north of 30n to inflate numbers.

Please show how the pattern this year is the same as the last two years. Because as far as I can tell the pattern is a lot different.

dry air(which bastardi harps on daily now on why global ACE is in the tank), instability way below normal, and now the neg NAO is returning along with the east coast trof, both big features the last 2 years. and bastardi is now hyping how we are going to have a year without an august. to be fair, he is bringing up 2004 that had a cold august, but right now i think he is finding ways as to why his huge landfall forecast wont bust. for one thing i posted earlier how 2004 instability in june and july was higher than average. even though 2004 didnt really start till aug, it was pumped and primed for a big season. this season, along with the excetionally dry air, the atlantic tropics are very stable.

this is this season. notice june and july, generally way below normal.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif


this is 2004, a stark difference. july was generally well above normal

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... ns2004.gif

[Bocadude85]

Please show how the pattern this year is the same as the last two years. Because as far as I can tell the pattern is a lot different.[/quote]


dry air(which bastardi harps on daily now on why global ACE is in the tank), instability way below normal, and now the neg NAO is returning along with the east coast trof, both big features the last 2 years. and bastardi is now hyping how we are going to have a year without an august. to be fair, he is bringing up 2004 that had a cold august, but right now i think he is finding ways as to why his huge landfall forecast wont bust. for one thing i posted earlier how 2004 instability in june and july was higher than average. even though 2004 didnt really start till aug, it was pumped and primed for a big season. this season, along with the excetionally dry air, the atlantic tropics are very stable.[/quote]


What east coast trof? The Atlantic has been dominated by high pressure, go to the models thread and look at the 10day EURO forecast that was just posted and note the expansive ridge across the atlantic. Of course there will be fronts moving off the east coast that happens every year, but for the most part the atlantic ridge has been in control. And instability is not way below normal, it is below normal in the MDR but is near normal in the GOM and Caribbean.

[Hurricaneman]

maybe its better put, "hyper-seasonal forecasts cancel". patterns do get set and the pattern we have now is little different from 2011/12 except its unlikely to get a bunch of weak swirls north of 30n to inflate numbers.

Please show how the pattern this year is the same as the last two years. Because as far as I can tell the pattern is a lot different.[/quote]


dry air(which bastardi harps on daily now on why global ACE is in the tank), instability way below normal, and now the neg NAO is returning along with the east coast trof, both big features the last 2 years. and bastardi is now hyping how we are going to have a year without an august. to be fair, he is bringing up 2004 that had a cold august, but right now i think he is finding ways as to why his huge landfall forecast wont bust. for one thing i posted earlier how 2004 instability in june and july was higher than average. even though 2004 didnt really start till aug, it was pumped and primed for a big season. this season, along with the excetionally dry air, the atlantic tropics are very stable.[/quote]


What east coast trof? The Atlantic has been dominated by high pressure, go to the models thread and look at the 10day EURO forecast that was just posted and note the expansive ridge across the atlantic. Of course there will be fronts moving off the east coast that happens every year, but for the most part the atlantic ridge has been in control. And instability is not way below normal, it is below normal in the MDR but is near normal in the GOM and Caribbean.[/quote]

60W is about where the instability increases and that argues for landfalls but that TUTT has been there shearing anything that should get close especially above 20N so I would say beware of anything that goes into the Caribbean and into the Gulf because of the normal to slightly above normal instability and lower shear down there

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: In terms of numbers. ACE wise it is pretty typical. The one thing that is not normal and is below normal (seems to have been for ages) is instability. That needs to change first before I buy into stronger systems. Quality over quantity.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Instability is only unusually low in the Tropical Atlantic. Unlike last year it's near normal everywhere else. Last year the instability in the Gulf, for example, was way way below normal.

The other thing I think should be recognized is that right now the formation probability in the east Atlantic is running above normal. Climatology puts formation probability this time of year near 0%.



Let's talk again August 15th or so.

I believe the below normal Instability in the MDR is due to the ITCZ being so far south for this time of year, until it lifts farther north (if it does) instability will remain most likely below normal.

[hurricaneCW]

This quiet time happens all the time, even 2005 had a relatively quiet period around this time. Things usually spring to life out of nowhere generally around mid August, so I expect the same. Remember that conditions can change rapidly in a week or so, I expect this current SAL outbreak to be the grand finale before it tapers off heading forward and the MJO will also become more favorable by mid August.

[Ntxw]

No doubt. It will pick up and we will see storms if not many. I don't think anyone will argue against climo. The data people are putting out is to see if those storms will become good hurricanes or majors vs 4-5 short lived weaker ones we're accustomed to in the Atlantic as a general consensus.

[cycloneye]

Well folks,apart from the big sal outbreak,here is another factor (Weak MJO signal) that causes the models to be quiet thru August 13.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/