2015 Global model runs discussion

[CYCLONE MIKE]

i think its safe to say the non major streak will continue. the real question is can even a weak sheared strung out minimal cat1 form.

The probability in the GOM chart above must be relate to the ull's on this chart.

Probably be one short lived one like last year ninel just to spite you

Yeah nothing to see in the gulf, everythings upper level. Just some tropical type rains streaming in from gulf due to another upper trough. Will dissipate by Monday.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

00Z GFS is lighting up the Atlantic in the long-range. What El Nino?

And there's your answer ncstormman

[Hammy]

Canadian is back to developing a ton of low pressures in the MDR, but none particularly strong (all mid-range TS's) and seems to be developing the system off the EC that was showing up in the Euro as well

[ninel conde]

i think its safe to say the non major streak will continue. the real question is can even a weak sheared strung out minimal cat1 form.

The probability in the GOM chart above must be relate to the ull's on this chart.

Probably be one short lived one like last year ninel just to spite you

Yeah nothing to see in the gulf, everythings upper level. Just some tropical type rains streaming in from gulf due to another upper trough. Will dissipate by Monday.

HAHA. no majors for a landfall in US though.

[LarryWx]

HAHA. no majors for a landfall in US though.

Ninel,
I think that the best shot at a CONUS major hit, if there is going to be one, will be starting in about a month and extending into early Oct. per history of similar ENSO.

[WPBWeather]

HAHA. no majors for a landfall in US though.

Ninel,
I think that the best shot at a CONUS major hit, if there is going to be one, will be starting in about a month and extending into early Oct. per history of similar ENSO.

Spot on LarryWx!

[Hurricaneman]

Now the GFS has joined in on a low forming from the 500mb cutoff which is modeled to start cutting off in 24hrs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[floridasun78]

Now the GFS has joined in on a low forming from the 500mb cutoff which is modeled to start cutting off in 24hrs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

i dont see that on gfs please show gfs run show it ty

[Hurricaneman]

Now the GFS has joined in on a low forming from the 500mb cutoff which is modeled to start cutting off in 24hrs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

i dont see that on gfs please show gfs run show it ty

At 102 hrs but drops the low later in the run but its the first time the GFS has shown a low from this which the other models have shown for numerous runs

[Hammy]

As expected the Euro dropped it as it got closer and is instead pushing the timetable for the next storm back to the system two waves behind it (just like the GFS does)

Is any model even the slightest bit reliable anymore after all these failed upgrades?

[Yellow Evan]

As expected the Euro dropped it as it got closer and is instead pushing the timetable for the next storm back to the system two waves behind it (just like the GFS does)

Is any model even the slightest bit reliable anymore after all these failed upgrades?

In other basins, I've seen some improvement in both the GFS and ECMWF, but it's a 1 step forward 1 step backward kind of process. The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET, however, all seem to have issues with AEW's.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS shows another Cape Verde system next week heading in the general direction of the Leewards:

[Alyono]

MU turns that one north well east of the islands. Massive troughing. Makes it into a decent hurricane, however

[gatorcane]

It's a long way out (like 260+ hours before it really makes that turn) so hard to say what the steering would be like. I wonder if the GFS will drop this hurricane in the next run?

[NDG]

NAO is going negative again, per GFS ensembles.

[Hammy]

:uarrow: NAO is going negative again, per GFS ensembles.

More reduced instability on the way then?

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: NAO is going negative again, per GFS ensembles.

More reduced instability on the way then?

I thought a negative NAO was always a good think for the MDR. Meaning a weaker Azores High which pumps this dreaded SAL off Africa?

[NDG]

All of July the NAO was negative so as you can see it didn't do any dent to the dry conditions across the MDR and higher than average SLPs, during moderate to strong El Nino years it must not have much of an affect one way or the other.
But IMO it comes more into play later in the year into early spring if the NAO continues negative the Atlantic's MDR SSTs usually become warmer than average.

[mitchell]

what is that low near Bermuda the GFS is spinning up at 120 hours related to?

[img][/img]

[Steve]

It looks like a trapped piece of energy (not sure of its origins or at what level the circulation is) south of building high pressure and between a couple of frontal systems. I don't have higher resolution run access, but it appears to be a candidate for a "nontropical low" or possibly an STS. Odd thing is that seems too early in the coming pattern flip to get trapped for too long. I think it's the front in the Eastern USA behind it that probably kicks this out unless it hooks up its trailing high overtop for the coming Western Atlantic ridging pattern. Still waiting for the evolution and solutions of Goni and Atsani to telegraph the pattern here, but if either or both bend back west say after their current 18z 8-22-15 progged positions, then the SEUS is open for whatever follows the low you are talking about. I think Atlantic ridging will lock into place into the 1st week of September. Beyond that? We should know more each day depending on the eventual tracks of the 2 mentioned WPAC systems.
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Hey storms expert,

"Always" almost never works for the tropics. Everyone else will vouch for that.