ATL: BARRY - Models

[mcheer23]

CMC with a pretty sizeable shift west.....

[NDG]

The UKMET for some reason has always been a west biased model. Didn’t it do the same thing last year with Michael if memory serves me correct?

Sometimes it's ultra-right biased too. It's not just the landfall point this time, but it's also where it goes after. Last night's run was both the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma.

CMC at 48 is pretty far west and heading to SE TX or SW LA.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1012&fh=48

The CMC seems to be way too fast compared to the GFS and Euro.

[MississippiWx]

The UKMET for some reason has always been a west biased model. Didn’t it do the same thing last year with Michael if memory serves me correct?

Sometimes it's ultra-right biased too. It's not just the landfall point this time, but it's also where it goes after. Last night's run was both the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma.

CMC at 48 is pretty far west and heading to SE TX or SW LA.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1012&fh=48

The CMC seems to be way too fast compared to the GFS and Euro.

Way faster. The CMC is almost making landfall in Texas in 72 hours while the GFS is making landfall in Southeast Louisiana. That is significant.

[mcheer23]

CMC makes landfall near Beaumont.

[StormLogic]

CMC now picking up Trough weakness and now on the Westerly trend with UKMET and NAM. The rest all bandwagoned with GFS imo. West trend will set in next 12-24 hrs. TX residents should start preparing as well as LA residents. 20-30" of rainfall expected E side of storm so get your boats ready. WYA CAJUN NAVY!?

[Frank P]

ICON 12z pretty much the same as all the other runs but stronger than the 06z run by 9 mb… south central LA

[Bolebuns]

CMC makes landfall near Beaumont.

Rita?

[SoupBone]

ICON 12z pretty much the same as all the other runs but stronger than the 06z run by 9 mb… south central LA

ICON picks up on the trough toward landfall. That trough placement is going to be huge (as I've said way too many times ).

[NDG]

The UKMET for some reason has always been a west biased model. Didn’t it do the same thing last year with Michael if memory serves me correct?

Sometimes it's ultra-right biased too. It's not just the landfall point this time, but it's also where it goes after. Last night's run was both the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma.

CMC at 48 is pretty far west and heading to SE TX or SW LA.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1012&fh=48

The CMC seems to be way too fast compared to the GFS and Euro.

To correct myself, it was too far right with Michael. It was the CMC that was too far left with it.

[Siker]

Note the HWRF jumping around between the initialized low level center (the little one further north) and another small one near the MLC at 28N in the first 12 hours of its run. Not clear how that will evolve, which means that the HWRF and HMON continue to be less reliable than they will be later on.

[Haris]

Why is there no precip on the front side of the storm on the CMC???

[TexasF6]

And Barry's remnants wash over Central Texas??? Ok CMC. Very interesting. A few models are seeing this stall
(Canadian, CMC, GEM). That is my takeaway...











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[HypercaneKyle]

12z HWRF @ 24 hours is down to 997mb. Can't link due to work.

I also think the GFS is overdoing the weakness. Not the first time the GFS has been too fast to curve a westward moving system northwards.

[Wx_Warrior]

12z

[Nederlander]

12z

http://i67.tinypic.com/33dclqb.jpg

Poor initialization

[stormlover2013]

12z

http://i67.tinypic.com/33dclqb.jpg

That is 00z run

[ColdMiser123]

Looks like RI is starting to take place on the HMON through 42 hours. Down to 979 mb.

HWRF down to 997 mb at 24 hours.

[StormLogic]

12z

http://i67.tinypic.com/33dclqb.jpg

boy thats 00z from midnight a little late

[LeonardRay]

12z

http://i67.tinypic.com/33dclqb.jpg

looks like all of those initialized with the low enter still in the panhandle,which I'm pretty sure its not

[Wx_Warrior]

It all comes down to King EURO, imo, at 12z