TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[deltadog03]

on second thought..i am not sure its a LLC could it be a MLC?? the main or old center still looks pretty descent to me...and still moving WEST...

[Swimdude]

the LLC looks really bad right now

Irene has never looked much of a supermodel hurricane.

[wxmann_91]

Irene has been moving W.S.W. for the past couple hours, and is heading into some very favorable waters for further intensification. The trough that is forecast to come off the east coast in approximately 48 hours has no chance of appreciably recurving Irene, and tomorrow we should see most of the models shift much further left than the westward shifts we have been seeing up to this time.

With Irene now destine to enter into hurricane alley and be positioned under a building ridge to her north, in the most conducive waters in the Atlantic for development, there can be little doubt that she will become a much more significant event than heretofore has been estimated, and more attention will be given to precise location of center and directional forward heading, as well as establishing pinpoint hour by hour center locations for the immediate preceeding hours. This should result in a more accurate assessment of not only where the storm has been, but also where the storm might be heading.

All interests in the southern Bahamas should monitor the developments concerning what will likely then be Hurricane Irene within the next 24 hrs. Irene is on a course that climatologically favors her remaining on the southerly track of hurricane alley just north of the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles. High pressure is forecast by all models to build in resolutely to Irene's north blocking any sharp recurvature to the north, and keeping her on a west to W.N.W. heading for the next 6 or 7 days, and perhaps longer. Furthermore, Irene may be poised to enter into a rapid intensification phase very soon, depending on how far she tracks W.S.W. over the next day or two. Irene is dangerously unpredictable and may fall apart and degenerate into an open wave, however, this is becoming less and less likely and the worst may be behind her. Recurvature is completely out of the question.

Without the necessary means to measure some of the nuances indigenous to Irene's current synoptical outlook, the research I have perfomed on the accumulated data pieced together so far has only permitted me to assess this developing situation at a level of precision that amounts to little more than on the spot guesswork of everything from Irene's future track to her intensity estimates. Much more data is needed to accurately assess the new developments that are arriving in now hour by hour. Safe to say that the threat Irene poses also increases at the same rate, as she heads into rich, tropically fertile oceanic waters, and improves her outflow with high pressure building overhead.

There better be a pretty strong ridge to stop a rapidly intensifying storm to move north.

[superfly]

Irene is far from "rapidly intensifying." It'll have its chance when it gets further west but in the next couple of days, highly unlikely.

[elysium]

This is a dangerously unpredictable system. Neither falling apart nor the possibility of rapid intensification at some point in the future can be dismissed. Irene is actually heading into waters that favor intensification. Under the right conditions, after she becomes better organized, rapid development may ensue. There is also a possibility of her falling apart, though, so Irene is very worthy of attention this hour.

[deltadog03]

well, the shear is weakning rapidly to the west of her..

[Ivanhater]

right now i dont see a new center forming,i see a center moving due west! and is slightly south of her previous position... i would love for wxman to give us his "incite" now

[Brent]

Irene is still here???

I have barely been paying attention today... it has lost my interest until it does something.

[wxmann_91]

Yeah, the center is not reforming...just an optical illusion caused by the outflow boundaries...sorry. (BTW, to OFB's help or hinder a TC like Irene?)

And yes, the shear is weakening ahead of Irene. I can see this thing start strengthening in the next 24 hours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This storm reminds me of Barry/Bonnie like storm. One second your looking at the worst looking tropical cyclone you can even think of. The next your looking at something near hurricane. With in 24 to 36 hours time.

[Astro_man92]

I thought that is had a closed cirrculation or does it

[clfenwi]

looks like a due west motion to me along 22.5°...convection moving around makes it hard to tell...

As far as the shear situation goes, I disagree with the asessment of weakening shear in front of her. Combining the water vapor loop (http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html) with

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... shr-1.html

and

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... shr-2.html

I would argue that things aren't getting better. A new source of problems is descending from the north (looks like its gotten down to 25° as of 0315ZZ. Also note that the area of sub 10 knot shear depicted in the 2100Z CIMSS analysis is smaller at 0000Z.

and right as I post that the 0300Z analysis http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html shows up....sigh...

area of sub 10 knot shear is expanded compared to 0000Z southern extent of the 20 knot shear to the north unchanged...
note that I adjusted the links to show what I was talking about at the time...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think its cirualtion is half under that big area of convection.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Darn it this storm can't get a break can't it.

[sma10]

Irene has been moving W.S.W. for the past couple hours, and is heading into some very favorable waters for further intensification. The trough that is forecast to come off the east coast in approximately 48 hours has no chance of appreciably recurving Irene, and tomorrow we should see most of the models shift much further left than the westward shifts we have been seeing up to this time.

With Irene now destine to enter into hurricane alley and be positioned under a building ridge to her north, in the most conducive waters in the Atlantic for development, there can be little doubt that she will become a much more significant event than heretofore has been estimated, and more attention will be given to precise location of center and directional forward heading, as well as establishing pinpoint hour by hour center locations for the immediate preceeding hours. This should result in a more accurate assessment of not only where the storm has been, but also where the storm might be heading.

All interests in the southern Bahamas should monitor the developments concerning what will likely then be Hurricane Irene within the next 24 hrs. Irene is on a course that climatologically favors her remaining on the southerly track of hurricane alley just north of the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles. High pressure is forecast by all models to build in resolutely to Irene's north blocking any sharp recurvature to the north, and keeping her on a west to W.N.W. heading for the next 6 or 7 days, and perhaps longer. Furthermore, Irene may be poised to enter into a rapid intensification phase very soon, depending on how far she tracks W.S.W. over the next day or two. Irene is dangerously unpredictable and may fall apart and degenerate into an open wave, however, this is becoming less and less likely and the worst may be behind her. Recurvature is completely out of the question.

Without the necessary means to measure some of the nuances indigenous to Irene's current synoptical outlook, the research I have perfomed on the accumulated data pieced together so far has only permitted me to assess this developing situation at a level of precision that amounts to little more than on the spot guesswork of everything from Irene's future track to her intensity estimates. Much more data is needed to accurately assess the new developments that are arriving in now hour by hour. Safe to say that the threat Irene poses also increases at the same rate, as she heads into rich, tropically fertile oceanic waters, and improves her outflow with high pressure building overhead.

This is by far the craziest post in the history of weather.

[fci]

Not the first one I have seen from this author...
And probably not the last, I guess

[clfenwi]

Little bored wondering what the record for tropical depression advisories is....
have gotten back 10 years in the archives so far...right now most I've seen is Henri of 2003... 23 TD advisories, 12 prior to becoming a TS, 11 after.

[gkrangers]

Little bored wondering what the record for tropical depression advisories is....
have gotten back 10 years in the archives so far...right now most I've seen is Henri of 2003... 23 TD advisories, 12 prior to becoming a TS, 11 after.

I'm waiting for the Euro..curious if it shows some consistency.

[clfenwi]

going back another 10 years with the most td advisory hunt... I would be shocked to find that Chris of '88 doesn't hold the record.... 27 TD advisories, then 3 as a TS ... followed by 8 more TD...


...yeah gkrangers, Euro is worth staying up for... that's one thing I liked about my two weeks in Central time, got to go to bed an hour earlier after seeing the 00Z models come out...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Where did you find the Advisoryes going back to 1988? Because mine only go back intill 1991.