ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

I see you Gustav!

[CronkPSU]

anyone hoping for a stall better also remember it could stall right AFTER landfall...after going through fay I would never wish that on anyone and that was just a trop storm the geography of that coast, that would be bibilical for many areas

[KWT]

Sure looks like an eye is popping on the IR, there is a little dry slot but that should fill in quickly enough I'd have thought once the eyewall wraps up.

[canegrl04]

Interesting view, not sure what the lower cloud levels are.



Dry air getting in?

Beginning to take on the look of a menacing hurricane

[BigB0882]

Yes, a stall is so scary. If it stalls off the coast it could be OK, especially for those who were about to get hit if it had kept going. However, if it goes inland and THEN stalls, well, I just hope it isn't over me!

[ronjon]

One last point - If the trough over the Gulf is upper level you would expect a stronger storm with higher tops to be more influenced by it - right?


Last three center readings:

984
980
977


Hello! Can you say BOOM?

Sanibel, it looks like from the KYW sounding that the GOM trough (ULL?) is at the 200 mb level. Deeper cyclone would be steered more by this layer. But, upper level winds are hostile now in the GOM which means more shear. I also did notice the anticyclone dropping south over Alabama. The models must be anticipating that trough to weaken and migrate west or southwest in response to the high dropping southward in AL. Be interesting with the 00Z models to see what effect (if any) the upper air soundings have on the future track. The data over the water is critical (we have a large data gap in the GOM for upper air).

[CronkPSU]

is that the "infamous fist"

[Just Joshing You]

What is this talk about a 'fist'?

[KWT]

Looks like a defined eye is now forming look at the vis, eyewall convection still bursting and filling in that little dry slow to the SE of the eyewall steadily.
got a feeling this will indeed be a major hurricane before Cuba.

[nolecaster]

What is this talk about a 'fist'?

Over the years, posters here have noticed the "fist" right before a hurricane explodes in intensity.

[HUC]

No thread for observations? Caimans are in hurricane conditions right now.....

[cpdaman]

One last point - If the trough over the Gulf is upper level you would expect a stronger storm with higher tops to be more influenced by it - right?


Last three center readings:

984
980
977


Hello! Can you say BOOM?

Sanibel, it looks like from the KYW sounding that the GOM trough (ULL?) is at the 200 mb level. Deeper cyclone would be steered more by this layer. But, upper level winds are hostile now in the GOM which means more shear. I also did notice the anticyclone dropping south over Alabama. The models must be anticipating that trough to weaken and migrate west or southwest in response to the high dropping southward in AL. Be interesting with the 00Z models to see what effect (if any) the upper air soundings have on the future track. The data over the water is critical (we have a large data gap in the GOM for upper air).

ron jon what do you think of the trough like feature over the western bahamas /fla straits , do you see this having any shear or otherwise effects on gustav, mentioned in miami discussion "HAVE NOTICED A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHICH MAY
POSSIBLY BE CONNECTED SOMEWHAT TO GUSTAV IS ENHANCING CONVECTION"

[StormWarning1]

One last point - If the trough over the Gulf is upper level you would expect a stronger storm with higher tops to be more influenced by it - right?


Last three center readings:

984
980
977


Hello! Can you say BOOM?

Sanibel, it looks like from the KYW sounding that the GOM trough (ULL?) is at the 200 mb level. Deeper cyclone would be steered more by this layer. But, upper level winds are hostile now in the GOM which means more shear. I also did notice the anticyclone dropping south over Alabama. The models must be anticipating that trough to weaken and migrate west or southwest in response to the high dropping southward in AL. Be interesting with the 00Z models to see what effect (if any) the upper air soundings have on the future track. The data over the water is critical (we have a large data gap in the GOM for upper air).

Upper air soundings will not be in the 00z GFS run, not enough time to get the data in. Look for it in the 6z model runs.

[KWT]

Eye has just taken a little wobble to the north, probably wobbling around quite a lot thanks to the very deep convection blowing up in the eyewall, looking more and more textbook right now, would expect pressure is dropping quite nicely still...also probably has 18-24hrs before any landfall to strengthen.

[drezee]

What is this talk about a 'fist'?

Over the years, posters here have noticed the "fist" right before a hurricane explodes in intensity.

As I coined the term, I would say yes. Started at 2115z and wrapped around the center. RI starts in less than 6 hours...count it down...

[ronjon]

One last point - If the trough over the Gulf is upper level you would expect a stronger storm with higher tops to be more influenced by it - right?


Last three center readings:

984
980
977


Hello! Can you say BOOM?

Sanibel, it looks like from the KYW sounding that the GOM trough (ULL?) is at the 200 mb level. Deeper cyclone would be steered more by this layer. But, upper level winds are hostile now in the GOM which means more shear. I also did notice the anticyclone dropping south over Alabama. The models must be anticipating that trough to weaken and migrate west or southwest in response to the high dropping southward in AL. Be interesting with the 00Z models to see what effect (if any) the upper air soundings have on the future track. The data over the water is critical (we have a large data gap in the GOM for upper air).

ron jon what do you think of the trough like feature over the western bahamas /fla straits , do you see this having any shear or otherwise effects on gustav, mentioned in miami discussion "HAVE NOTICED A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHICH MAY
POSSIBLY BE CONNECTED SOMEWHAT TO GUSTAV IS ENHANCING CONVECTION"

cp, that trough is at the surface - it's becoming entrained within the overall circulation of Gus and will likely lead to an increase in TS over S FL tomorrow.

[Kludge]

Appears headed right at little caymans, is it supposed to or split with the big island??

There's a forecast point directly on top of the Isle of Yoot (that's how soprano would say it). Gotta be scary for those folks.

And... can anyone recall a 3 day path for a storm from the NHC that's a straight line, like the current one? It's almost like they're saying...okay, I give up, lets pick a path after day 2, then go EXTRAP.

I'm not dissing NHC...it just seems...........irregular.

[Just Joshing You]

What storms have shown this "fist" feature? And any pictures?