i think FW Nws is under estimating the amount of snow for sure...
ive always though animals cats/dogs/horses ect know these things before we even do...
dogs went out this morning and refused to stay out after their morning duty, cats refused to even step outside the door ...they have had no problem going out the last few days..
they acted the exact same way before the x-mas snow hehehe
Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
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just a guess.......take everything i say with a grain of salt.......check your local NWS for forecast information
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msstateguy83
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Eastland county relayed a few reports of snow along I-20 in the town of Eastland to our office. Not sure if its sticking, but its 32 there so who knows. I just wanted to know what you guys thought... ?
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ntxweatherwatcher
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 71
- Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:55 pm
- Location: Bedford, TX DFW
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msstateguy83
alot of times both the nam/gfs can go *WAY* overboard with giving you very
crazy amts of snow like i remember before the christmas eve blizzard saying
20-30 inches up near okc but they did wind up getting i think 14" give or take
a little. however imo i think this is one of these times that both are underestimating
the amts on snowfall.. iam not even ready to say or make a graphic yet i know some
have asked but lets just put it this way i think maybe not as big as the ok snowstorm
but this could be close!
crazy amts of snow like i remember before the christmas eve blizzard saying
20-30 inches up near okc but they did wind up getting i think 14" give or take
a little. however imo i think this is one of these times that both are underestimating
the amts on snowfall.. iam not even ready to say or make a graphic yet i know some
have asked but lets just put it this way i think maybe not as big as the ok snowstorm
but this could be close!
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Portastorm
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 9914
- Age: 63
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Wintry mix now being reported in San Marcos. Nothing yet in Austin besides Portastorm continually going to his office window to see what is happening.
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TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
- Posts: 3445
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Portastorm wrote:Wintry mix now being reported in San Marcos. Nothing yet in Austin besides Portastorm continually going to his office window to see what is happening.
Lol, its coming your way. You sound like me for the Dec. 4th storm in Houston.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
msstateguy83 wrote:alot of times both the nam/gfs can go *WAY* overboard with giving you very
crazy amts of snow like i remember before the christmas eve blizzard saying
20-30 inches up near okc but they did wind up getting i think 14" give or take
a little. however imo i think this is one of these times that both are underestimating
the amts on snowfall.. iam not even ready to say or make a graphic yet i know some
have asked but lets just put it this way i think maybe not as big as the ok snowstorm
but this could be close!
I have been waiting for us (dfw area) to get some good snow for awhile now. I always love to look at your graphics. You always had them up for the OK storms..... so when can we (dfw) expect to get ours?? Thanks for the graphics for OK too by the way....I have family there and it was always fun to call and tell them what was being said on here versus what there weather guy was saying there.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
FW NWS is saying this storm is moving slower compaired to models...
at 406 AM
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED BY THE COMPUTER
MODELS WHICH WILL ALLOW A BETTER RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
im not sure on this, what do you guys think??
at 406 AM
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED BY THE COMPUTER
MODELS WHICH WILL ALLOW A BETTER RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
im not sure on this, what do you guys think??
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just a guess.......take everything i say with a grain of salt.......check your local NWS for forecast information
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WacoWx
- Category 2
- Posts: 664
- Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 4:14 pm
- Location: NOT Waco, TX ----> Dallas, TX
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
C'MON WACO! I'm gonna say I'm cautiously optimistic. Snow but no accumulation with temps never getting below 32 until Fri morning. Jinx it WacoWx, jinx it!
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HockeyTx82
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2540
- Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
- Location: Ponder, TX
Re:
txagwxman wrote:New Canadian interesting...
Interesting in what way? I am not good at reading the models......
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
000
FXUS64 KFWD 101648 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1048 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010
.UPDATE...
COMPLICATED FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO SAY THE LEAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NW BAJA
THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
STREAMING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS
IN THE FLOW. AREA 88D DATA INDICATES LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS MUCH OF
TEXAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
MOST OF THIS IS VIRGA AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET FARTHER
SOUTH. THINK MAINLY VIRGA OR A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS UNTIL LOWER LEVELS SATURATE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 TODAY...SO
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO POPS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY 12Z MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SEVERAL CHANGES. 12Z NAM
HAS COME IN CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUN...AND FASTER
WITH THE UPPER LOW. 12Z GFS IS ALSO COLDER AND ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW/MID LEVELS SHOULD QUICKLY SATURATE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING IN THE LOWEST 150MB...RAPID NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING TOO EXTENSIVE. MODELS STILL INDICATE A
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM 925-700MB THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THIS
LAYER BEING 1-2 DEGREES C BELOW FREEZING. THIS IS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW THAN A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT PREVIOUS MODEL PERFORMANCE IN
HANDLING INTENSITY OF WARM ADVECTION IN THIS LAYER IS CONCERNING.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE WESTERN GULF ON THURSDAY. TYPICALLY IN THE WINTER...A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING CYCLONE CAN OFTEN CHOKE OFF THE BEST MOISTURE NEEDED FOR
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. NONETHELESS...THINK WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS STILL LIKELY AND SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THERMAL PROFILE...
PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER 150MB. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS INCOMING
GLOBAL GUIDANCE...
WILL BE IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES CONCERNING ANY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.
FXUS64 KFWD 101648 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1048 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010
.UPDATE...
COMPLICATED FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO SAY THE LEAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NW BAJA
THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
STREAMING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS
IN THE FLOW. AREA 88D DATA INDICATES LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS MUCH OF
TEXAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
MOST OF THIS IS VIRGA AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET FARTHER
SOUTH. THINK MAINLY VIRGA OR A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS UNTIL LOWER LEVELS SATURATE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 TODAY...SO
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO POPS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY 12Z MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SEVERAL CHANGES. 12Z NAM
HAS COME IN CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUN...AND FASTER
WITH THE UPPER LOW. 12Z GFS IS ALSO COLDER AND ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW/MID LEVELS SHOULD QUICKLY SATURATE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING IN THE LOWEST 150MB...RAPID NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING TOO EXTENSIVE. MODELS STILL INDICATE A
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM 925-700MB THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THIS
LAYER BEING 1-2 DEGREES C BELOW FREEZING. THIS IS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW THAN A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT PREVIOUS MODEL PERFORMANCE IN
HANDLING INTENSITY OF WARM ADVECTION IN THIS LAYER IS CONCERNING.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE WESTERN GULF ON THURSDAY. TYPICALLY IN THE WINTER...A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING CYCLONE CAN OFTEN CHOKE OFF THE BEST MOISTURE NEEDED FOR
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. NONETHELESS...THINK WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS STILL LIKELY AND SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THERMAL PROFILE...
PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER 150MB. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS INCOMING
GLOBAL GUIDANCE...
WILL BE IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES CONCERNING ANY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.
0 likes
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
Im interested in srainhoutex opinion have been following his post for years now on the KHOU forum and storm2k.
0 likes
-
TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
- Posts: 3445
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
This abundant moisture should help the low in the baja strengthen big time shouldnt it? Just have this feeling of something big happening up there. I hope they put up watches soon. It's almost to the point where they would ONLY issue a warning though
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)
wxag07 wrote:000
FXUS64 KFWD 101648 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1048 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010
.UPDATE...
COMPLICATED FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO SAY THE LEAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NW BAJA
THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
STREAMING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS
IN THE FLOW. AREA 88D DATA INDICATES LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS MUCH OF
TEXAS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
MOST OF THIS IS VIRGA AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET FARTHER
SOUTH. THINK MAINLY VIRGA OR A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS UNTIL LOWER LEVELS SATURATE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 TODAY...SO
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO POPS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY 12Z MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SEVERAL CHANGES. 12Z NAM
HAS COME IN CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUN...AND FASTER
WITH THE UPPER LOW. 12Z GFS IS ALSO COLDER AND ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW/MID LEVELS SHOULD QUICKLY SATURATE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING IN THE LOWEST 150MB...RAPID NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BEING TOO EXTENSIVE. MODELS STILL INDICATE A
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM 925-700MB THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THIS
LAYER BEING 1-2 DEGREES C BELOW FREEZING. THIS IS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW THAN A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT PREVIOUS MODEL PERFORMANCE IN
HANDLING INTENSITY OF WARM ADVECTION IN THIS LAYER IS CONCERNING.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE WESTERN GULF ON THURSDAY. TYPICALLY IN THE WINTER...A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING CYCLONE CAN OFTEN CHOKE OFF THE BEST MOISTURE NEEDED FOR
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. NONETHELESS...THINK WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS STILL LIKELY AND SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THERMAL PROFILE...
PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER 150MB. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS INCOMING
GLOBAL GUIDANCE...
WILL BE IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES CONCERNING ANY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.
0 likes
just a guess.......take everything i say with a grain of salt.......check your local NWS for forecast information
-
msstateguy83
anyone else west of the metroplex that has connections plz keep us posted esp if you are anywhere west say mineral wells, breckenridge,stephenville , comanche that area... excellent radar returns currently and already 1 report out of eastland county of light snow... just would like to get some more reports confirmed of snow to see how much is v.s. how much is not reaching the ground attm...
0 likes
-
msstateguy83
000
FXUS64 KOUN 101638
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010
.UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE THIS MORNING IS TO CLOUD COVER. WILL INCREASE INTO
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CAT ACROSS ENTIRE AREA. OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK
GOOD FOR TODAY.
CONTINUE TO LOOK AT POSSIBLE CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
MAIN IMPACTS CONT TO BE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. ANY
CHANGES WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTN PACKAGE.
FXUS64 KOUN 101638
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010
.UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE THIS MORNING IS TO CLOUD COVER. WILL INCREASE INTO
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CAT ACROSS ENTIRE AREA. OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK
GOOD FOR TODAY.
CONTINUE TO LOOK AT POSSIBLE CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
MAIN IMPACTS CONT TO BE FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. ANY
CHANGES WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTN PACKAGE.
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